Ray of hope 58th draw?

[hitesh.mulchandani]

is there anybody here below 430 who is still hopeful?
I mean hopeful based on reality not wishful thinking.

I was at 433 just a couple of weeks ago and now at 428. I am not hoping for an ITA in this draw, but I am sure that in the next couple of draws we would be around 430's or maybe around 428.

Also just checked my profile and came to know that my profile expires today, will have to create another one tomorrow.

 

[tj4canada]

Are there actually plausible reasons or are we just hoping that the next draw will be lower? I don't want to be a pessimist but I fear that the next draw might go higher because the second last was a clear deviation from pattern in a ranking so low that was never seen before, and immediately in last draw the rank jumped back 7 places. Are the odds higher for it increasing or decreasing and any real expert insight for the same in market like immigration lawyers?

I did a linear regression on data after the job score change, so from December to now. I tried a few variables, but the scores correspond best to number of ITAs. Personally, I don't think it's going to come down below 430, and I'm focusing on entrepreneur PNP.

 

[Maverick28]

I just signed up for a website which will check the CIC page for the changes in CRS cut-off every hour. If there is a change, I will be notified. So no more refresh game from now. 8)

 

[smarreco]

I just signed up for a website which will check the CIC page for the changes in CRS cut-off every hour. If there is a change, I will be notified. So no more refresh game from now. 8)

What!!?? Please share it!! Lol

 

[vensak]

Am not an expert but aa you see the stats ... 77k fedral visas .... 20 k already given 50k still left so it is a good indicator that yes point need to drop .... it will go below 410 mark too

ITA does not equal to 1 PR at the end. It can equal to several.
1 ITA = 1 family (husband, wife and children).
With ratio app. 2 visas per 1 family, you would need app. 45k successful ITA per year (FSW, FST, CEC and EE PNP together).

For first 3 months we already got app. 21650 ITA. that would give us 86600 ITA per year, which would give us app. 45% of failure rate (45% of those ITA will never be approved as Visas later on).

 

[hamiltondreamer]

Thank you for correcting me. Much appreciated for providing a fact.

hello pleas how do i put my timeline/details on my page . i noticed people putting thier ielts scores and crs score

 

[hamiltondreamer]

Am not an expert but aa you see the stats ... 77k fedral visas .... 20 k already given 50k still left so it is a good indicator that yes point need to drop .... it will go below 410 mark too

please where did you get these stats from, a link please. thank you

 

[Maverick28]

hello pleas how do i put my timeline/details on my page . i noticed people putting thier ielts scores and crs score

This feature will be active on your profile after you become a Full Member (after having a certain number of posts on the forum).

 

[hamiltondreamer]

thank you

 

[jaysingh22]

please where did you get these stats from, a link please. thank you

these were released in november .... regarding the crs score thats a guess ..... i had made this in dec and the sucessive draws were in line with it hopefully my reading is near about ok

 

[Pawshi]

Below improvements to express entry system are effective from 6th June 2017:

15 additional points will be awarded for CLB 7 & CLB 4 or lower in all four language abilities of French (TEF) & English (IELTS) test results respectively.

30 additional points will be awarded for CLB 7 & CLB 5 or lower in all four language abilities of French (TEF) & English (IELTS) exam results respectively.

Candidates with siblings in the Canada will get 15 extra points. To get these points, candidates will need to show that the sibling is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident who is living in the Canada and is 18 years of age or older. Sibling in Canada must share a mother or father with the principal express entry applicant or their spouse. This relationship can be through blood, marriage or adoption.

Job bank registration becomes voluntary for all candidates. Applicants who meet the minimum entry criteria for express entry will be automatically placed into the pool and immediately eligible for invitation rounds.




https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2017/03/express_entry_improvementsspring2017.html

 

[MattyTj]

Below improvements to express entry system are effective from 6th June 2017:

15 additional points will be awarded for CLB 7 & CLB 4 or lower in all four language abilities of French (TEF) & English (IELTS) test results respectively.

30 additional points will be awarded for CLB 7 & CLB 5 or lower in all four language abilities of French (TEF) & English (IELTS) exam results respectively.

Candidates with siblings in the Canada will get 15 extra points. To get these points, candidates will need to show that the sibling is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident who is living in the Canada and is 18 years of age or older. Sibling in Canada must share a mother or father with the principal express entry applicant or their spouse. This relationship can be through blood, marriage or adoption.

Job bank registration becomes voluntary for all candidates. Applicants who meet the minimum entry criteria for express entry will be automatically placed into the pool and immediately eligible for invitation rounds.




https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2017/03/express_entry_improvementsspring2017.html

They forgot to up the age to 35 from 30 where you start losing points!!! Lol

These changes were bandied about almost a year ago because only a tiny fraction of PR applicants were bilingual and they wanted to attract more of them. The sibling connection makes sense as well.

I personally don't think this will have a major impact on scores. It will just help a very small percentage. Plus, we have about 4 more draws before these changes are implemented.

Let's stay hopeful!

 

[Pawshi]

I feel five draws by May end. There would be one back to back draw. Also, after the changes there would be errors. So like last time, they didnt do any draw from November 16, 2016 to December 16, 2016. So for almost a month, there were no draws.

 

[Pawshi]

Vensak can easily answer how difficult to score CLB 7 in French.

 

[MattyTj]

Vensak can easily answer how difficult to score CLB 7 in French.

I can only imagine that for a non-native speaker or someone who just understands fairly basic French, scoring a 7 is a very difficult thing. I think a shareholder report I saw about EE said like 2% of the pool are "francophones" and they would like to see this double to 4%. In a round of 3000 invitations, that means the number goes from 60 to 120.

Stay hopeful people!