Ray of hope 58th draw?

[DelPiero07]

Wow thx for the prompt reply. I just created an individual post lol Anyway, do I need to inform CIC about the resign?

Nope but if you resign before submitting your eAPR you would have to update your profile with the ending date.

 

[tj4canada]

Only raining on my own parade here, but linear regression on data from Dec until today indicates that the greatest impact comes from number of ITAs. Depending on how you estimate, 172,500/ approx 2 per ITA / 26 draws per year = avg ITA of 3300. I think the scores are going to stay relatively steady.

size score linear estimate
1,936 497 500
2,878 475 470
2,902 468 469
3,334 459 455
3,508 453 450
3,664 447 445
3,611 441 446
3,884 434 438
3,749 441 442
I tried a few different sets of variables, and number of ITAs is pretty close.

 

[thepilot]

Dammmm it went up to 441

 

[gailmargolis]

Only raining on my own parade here, but linear regression on data from Dec until today indicates that the greatest impact comes from number of ITAs.

Haha, Linear Regression. How cute

 

[Sralf]

Wow thx for the prompt reply. I just created an individual post lol Anyway, do I need to inform CIC about the resign?

I see, just one more clarification for PCC. If the last time I left China is Feb,2016, technically the PCC is all good as long as my parents can get the PCC after that date right?

 

[smanalik]

I am at 436

 

[DelPiero07]

I see, just one more clarification for PCC. If the last time I left China is Feb,2016, technically the PCC is all good as long as my parents can get the PCC after that date right?

Correct.

 

[Alexios07]

Only raining on my own parade here, but linear regression on data from Dec until today indicates that the greatest impact comes from number of ITAs. Depending on how you estimate, 172,500/ approx 2 per ITA / 26 draws per year = avg ITA of 3300. I think the scores are going to stay relatively steady.

172,500 is the total quota for ALL economic programs, not just Express Entry. The correct quota number is 67,600 to 75,300 for this year, and this number also doesn't equal to Express Entry's ITA. In 2016, the target for economic immigration was 58,400, but only 33,782 ITAs were issued.

One of my theory is the ITA could go down again later this year, thus cut off score will sky rocket again.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJH42mM6V_lwI5gUwH3E_BAYaJL-direp5U41J1h6Bk/edit#gid=0

 

[tj4canada]

BTW, I really hope that I'm wrong. More than any of you, I need that number to drop.

Only raining on my own parade here, but linear regression on data from Dec until today indicates that the greatest impact comes from number of ITAs. Depending on how you estimate, 172,500/ approx 2 per ITA / 26 draws per year = avg ITA of 3300. I think the scores are going to stay relatively steady.

size score linear estimate
1,936 497 500
2,878 475 470
2,902 468 469
3,334 459 455
3,508 453 450
3,664 447 445
3,611 441 446
3,884 434 438
3,749 441 442
I tried a few different sets of variables, and number of ITAs is pretty close.

 

[arrayofhope]

172,500 is the total quota for ALL economic programs, not just Express Entry. The correct quota number is 67,600 to 75,300 for this year, and this number also doesn't equal to Express Entry's ITA. In 2016, the target for economic immigration was 58,400, but only 33,782 ITAs were issued.

One of my theory is the ITA could go down again later this year, thus cut off score will sky rocket again.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJH42mM6V_lwI5gUwH3E_BAYaJL-direp5U41J1h6Bk/edit#gid=0

Last year they also had paper based backlogs, which have all been processed. Also the processing times have been reduced to 6 months or less on most applications. So hopefully they don't have to reduce the number of ITA's.

 

[MattyTj]

172,500 is the total quota for ALL economic programs, not just Express Entry. The correct quota number is 67,600 to 75,300 for this year, and this number also doesn't equal to Express Entry's ITA. In 2016, the target for economic immigration was 58,400, but only 33,782 ITAs were issued.

One of my theory is the ITA could go down again later this year, thus cut off score will sky rocket again.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJH42mM6V_lwI5gUwH3E_BAYaJL-direp5U41J1h6Bk/edit#gid=0

Draws will always be of 2500-3000ish size the rest of the year. The reason there were less in 2016 is paper based applications from 2014 were still being processed. Before EE, all PR applications were paper based and took around 2 years to process. In 2016, the quota that was not met on EE was met with paper applications. Now in 2017, all PR quotas will be met through EE. Thus, invitations should remain steady-ish all year. Best of luck to us all!!!

 

[Alexios07]

Last year they also had paper based backlogs, which have all been processed. Also the processing times have been reduced to 6 months or less on most applications. So hopefully they don't have to reduce the number of ITA's.

There's no way they can clear all the backlog. Last time I checked, they still have around hundred of thousands of applications that need to process (09/2016 data). In addition, there's still paper-based PR application for several PNP streams, like BC PNP skill immigration stream. One of my friends still has his paper application in process since December 2015.

(Right click on image, choose Open image in new tab for fullsize)

 

[grapehair]

If the ITAs decrease, then the score surely will go up. But let's hope the draw keeps happening at regular intervals to keep the CRS down until it stabilize

 

[fatani]

172,500 is the total quota for ALL economic programs, not just Express Entry. The correct quota number is 67,600 to 75,300 for this year, and this number also doesn't equal to Express Entry's ITA. In 2016, the target for economic immigration was 58,400, but only 33,782 ITAs were issued.

One of my theory is the ITA could go down again later this year, thus cut off score will sky rocket again.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mJH42mM6V_lwI5gUwH3E_BAYaJL-direp5U41J1h6Bk/edit#gid=0

Last yr they said 50% will come from EE. In 2017 they said majority of them will come from EE means 80-85%. With your analysis 33,782 ITAs issued in 2016 and mind you in 6-7 months from april to october the ITAs were 750 because of refugees so take it into account as well.

So now with no refugees 30% increment in ITAs because of backlog decreased. and 6-7K increase in quota we can assume 50% increase of 33,782 so we can assume approx 50K ITAs this yr.

With so much ITAs come so much decline as lots of people make 2 profiles for husband and wife and decline ITA from 1 account and fake profiles were also set up so if we consider rejection at 20% of ITAs it means approx 60K ITAs will be issued.

Considering no more draws in march the current ITAs stand up to 24,652. It means around 35.5K remaining for 9 months. It means around 2000 ITAs on avg per draw which is still a good number to keep this below 450.

 

[Pippin]

I think we have had way more than 3 month's worth of ITA's. Don't they start drawing on next the year's allotment between July to October? This means we are more than half way through the 2017 quota.