RAY of HOPE 54th Draw (Predictions)

[hopesarehigh]

446 with 3000 ITAs

 

[dream2017]

450 or lower with at least 3500 ITAs

 

[vabs200]

Last time I predicted 452 with 3500 ITAs....came pretty close to the actual draw result.

IMO, here on, the draw size is going to remain at 3500 at least for the next 4-5 draws. For next draw, I would say 3500 ITAs with 448.

 

[Pawshi]

vabs200,

I agree with your point of view. Till April (approximately six to seven more draws), the draw size should be 3300+ and may have an instance of 3700 also. With each draw, the scores should drop by minimum 5 points. Remember, there was 7 points drop from 475 to 468 with 2900+ size. Then there was a 9 points drop with a lot of 3300. This clearly shows that there uneven numbers of applicants at each point.

There are good number of applicants in the category of 400+ who are continuously looking to increase the CRS by improving the language, spouse's points etc. So 400 to 440 range would be thinner with the numbers of applicants at each point.

My guess estimate is 445 with 3500+ for the next draw.

 

[vabs200]

vabs200,

I agree with your point of view. Till April (approximately six to seven more draws), the draw size should be 3300+ and may have an instance of 3700 also. With each draw, the scores should drop by minimum 5 points. Remember, there was 7 points drop from 475 to 468 with 2900+ size. Then there was a 9 points drop with a lot of 3300. This clearly shows that there uneven numbers of applicants at each point.

There are good number of applicants in the category of 400+ who are continuously looking to increase the CRS by improving the language, spouse's points etc. So 400 to 440 range would be thinner with the numbers of applicants at each point.

My guess estimate is 445 with 3500+ for the next draw.

If what you have predicted turns out to be true, then I would receive my ITA as well

 

[Pawshi]

You have to buy me a beer dude in Toronto in June 2018.....

 

[Badr]

I think next draws will be like this : (I hope so)

1st draw - February 2800 448
2nd draw - February 2800 442
1st draw - March 2000 438
2nd draw - March 2500 436
1st draw - April 2500 434
2nd draw - April 2000 432 (I am here : )
1st draw - May 1800 428
2nd draw - May 1800 420

.... Still waiting for the end of year report 2016

I really wonder how did you get to that conclusion. We all know that IRCC will invite 73700 candidates from FSWP and CEC, in addition to 51000 from PNP programs. That make a total of 124700 candidates directly from the EE pool. And since we know that the backlog of paper based application ended around last October. Then IRCC have to invite all of these people from the pool.
We had 3 draws up till now which invited 9744 candidates and remain 114956 candidates to be invited by the end of 2017. There are 24 draws remaining with an average of 4790 candidates per draw.
But seeing that you expect the draw size is about 1800 only really dazzle me. I hope that your prediction is based on solid ground and if you could share that with us.
I predict the score will keep on going down steadily 5-10 points every draw for the course of 2017. let's hope i'm right

 

[Ashwsh]

I really wonder how did you get to that conclusion. We all know that IRCC will invite 73700 candidates from FSWP and CEC, in addition to 51000 from PNP programs. That make a total of 124700 candidates directly from the EE pool. And since we know that the backlog of paper based application ended around last October. Then IRCC have to invite all of these people from the pool.
We had 3 draws up till now which invited 9744 candidates and remain 114956 candidates to be invited by the end of 2017. There are 24 draws remaining with an average of 4790 candidates per draw.
But seeing that you expect the draw size is about 1800 only really dazzle me. I hope that your prediction is based on solid ground and if you could share that with us.
I predict the score will keep on going down steadily 5-10 points every draw for the course of 2017. let's hope i'm right

Hey,

I have a question:-
I read somewhere on this forum, each candidate that gets an ITA has with him about 2 family members. Does this quota of 124700 inclusive of these family members or separate

TIA

 

[astralsource]

Hey,

I have a question:-
I read somewhere on this forum, each candidate that gets an ITA has with him about 2 family members. Does this quota of 124700 inclusive of these family members or separate

TIA

Yes, there wont be 120 000 ITAs for sure, but maybe 50-60 000

 

[johnsyk]

I really wonder how did you get to that conclusion. We all know that IRCC will invite 73700 candidates from FSWP and CEC, in addition to 51000 from PNP programs. That make a total of 124700 candidates directly from the EE pool. And since we know that the backlog of paper based application ended around last October. Then IRCC have to invite all of these people from the pool.
We had 3 draws up till now which invited 9744 candidates and remain 114956 candidates to be invited by the end of 2017. There are 24 draws remaining with an average of 4790 candidates per draw.
But seeing that you expect the draw size is about 1800 only really dazzle me. I hope that your prediction is based on solid ground and if you could share that with us.
I predict the score will keep on going down steadily 5-10 points every draw for the course of 2017. let's hope i'm right

120,000+ is NOT ITA. Its total landing. In reality, there are kids and family which is part of the total Landing numbers/immigration targets.

It is usually calculated at around 1.2 to 1.5 per ITA = 80,000 - 100,000 ITA.

80,000 ITA divided by 12 = 6666 which divided by 2 weeks = 3333.

However some PNPs are outside of Express entry.

So average ITA per 2 weeks will be around 3000 to 3500 if all backlogs are cleared.

 

[johnsyk]

Once it breaches the 450 mark, the drops will be very slow since there is high density. For example, there could be a 1000 people at 440 compared to 600 people at 454. So each drop might be 1 or 2 points when we reach that level and hence it will become more and more slow as we keep going lower on CRS scores.

 

[astralsource]

120,000+ is NOT ITA. Its total landing. In reality, there are kids and family which is part of the total Landing numbers/immigration targets.

It is usually calculated at around 1.2 to 1.5 per ITA = 80,000 - 100,000 ITA.

80,000 ITA divided by 12 = 6666 which divided by 2 weeks = 3333.

However some PNPs are outside of Express entry.

So average ITA per 2 weeks will be around 3000 to 3500 if all backlogs are cleared.

what he said +1

How much (%) was the backlog last year??

 

[johnsyk]

what he said +1

How much (%) was the backlog last year??

I dont know the numbers. But CIC had said that they will clear all backlogs by October 2016. Clearly they were running late since the big ITA numbers started only by December.

I have a feeling most of the backlogs are probably over and hence the high ITAs. We will know more when we see the year end report.

 

[johnsyk]

In my opinion based on pure gut, they will do 2 - 3 more draws, breach the 450 mark and probably at around 442 - 445 ( March) ONIP Human Capital stream will kick in to start clearing up the 400 - 445 folks. The scores might gradually still go down but will be a lot slower so many people still apply for ONIP since its a safer bet. ONIP is a money spinner for Ontario and they aint going to let go of those millions they will make through the 1500 CAD application fees.

 

[Aal_]

Once it breaches the 450 mark, the drops will be very slow since there is high density. For example, there could be a 1000 people at 440 compared to 600 people at 454. So each drop might be 1 or 2 points when we reach that level and hence it will become more and more slow as we keep going lower on CRS scores.

there were some spreadsheets showing the distribution. Does anyone have those or the link?