RAY of HOPE 53rd Draw (Predictions)

[vabs200]

No, I dont think so. Somewhere on this very forum I read the each ITA eats 1.2 space of the quota. Please keep in your consideration that maximum numbers are singles, as they are below 30.

So, in each draw consider 5% for PNP quota. Hence the calculation looks like this -

Total ITA numbers for each month = 5000 (2500 in each draw)
Used Economic immigrant quota = 5000*1.2 = 6000
Multiply by 12 months = 6000*12 = 72000

In my opinion, we will continue to see 2500+ draw every second week and at this rate it should go down below 420 by H1 2017.


This makes sense but IMO we should always go with the worst case scenario and that is why I assumed 2 PRs for every ITA. But, cheers to you for the positivity

 

[johnsyk]

And yes we should also account for the ones who get rejected. Though there aren't specific numbers with me, I believe that there could be duplicate ITAs and ones getting rejected too. So 1.2 seems reasonable.

 

[Pawshi]

Good discussion and that is why it is ray of hope. Good articulation RK117. +1 for you.

 

[vabs200]

My biggest fear is that they are pumping out ITAs till they hit 450 and then hold back ITAs. Same thing happened last year and 2015. It fell to 450 and then it was rising after that. That way ONIP remains competitive!

IMO, holding back the number of ITAs at 450 CRS would mean no more draws of 1000+ ITAs February onwards, which seems unlikely. I think they will go till at least 430 and maybe then look at holding back the number of ITAs. That way, they will leave enough candidates for OINP nominations and also clear candidates with good core human capital scores. As per some reports that I came across, last year OINP was flooded with applications as most candidates at least in the range of 400-450 applied for a nomination, which is something that they do not want to repeat this year. It could also be the reason why OINP has not opened for 2017 intake yet.

 

[johnsyk]

IMO, holding back the number of ITAs at 450 CRS would mean no more draws of 1000+ ITAs February onwards, which seems unlikely. I think they will go till at least 430 and maybe then look at holding back the number of ITAs. That way, they will leave enough candidates for OINP nominations and also clear candidates with good core human capital scores. As per some reports that I came across, last year OINP was flooded with applications as most candidates at least in the range of 400-450 applied for a nomination, which is something that they do not want to repeat this year. It could also be the reason why OINP has not opened for 2017 intake yet.

Yeah you have a point. Just gotta wait and see how this plays out..

 

[vabs200]

Yeah you have a point. Just gotta wait and see how this plays out..

Precisely, but till then let us keep this ray of hope alive and spread some positivity

 

[JosephR]

January 25, ITAs 3300 cutoff score 451

 

[johnsyk]

Precisely, but till then let us keep this ray of hope alive and spread some positivity

;D ;D ;D

 

[motocheck]

Hi Joseph whats ur CRS score ..mine is 451.


are u joseph Rodrigues ?

 

[astralsource]

No, I dont think so. Somewhere on this very forum I read the each ITA eats 1.2 space of the quota. Please keep in your consideration that maximum numbers are singles, as they are below 30.

So, in each draw consider 5% for PNP quota. Hence the calculation looks like this -

Total ITA numbers for each month = 5000 (2500 in each draw)
Used Economic immigrant quota = 5000*1.2 = 6000
Multiply by 12 months = 6000*12 = 72000

In my opinion, we will continue to see 2500+ draw every second week and at this rate it should go down below 420 by H1 2017.

Very true.

And OINP will hopefully soon clarify things about the possible cut-off.

 

[Seeker16]

sitting at 458....all right all right all right.... keep calm keep calm

 

[vabs200]

sitting at 458....all right all right all right.... keep calm keep calm

The best advice at this time would be to just forget about ITA in order to overcome the anxiety. However, it's easier said than done. I am at 447 and until yesterday a direct ITA seemed like a distant dream but now I can see a real chance within the next 2-3 draws, so I can imagine how you must be feeling being so tantalisingly close

 

[Mthornt]

The best advice at this time would be to just forget about ITA in order to overcome the anxiety. However, it's easier said than done. I am at 447 and until yesterday a direct ITA seemed like a distant dream but now I can see a real chance within the next 2-3 draws, so I can imagine how you must be feeling being so tantalisingly close

Likewise Vabs, same here. I missed by 1 point on 2 separate draws in 2015 before my scored dropped due to age. I'll lose another 5 points in mid march, so I'm hoping the next 3 draws drop to 447.

 

[Ashwsh]

Considering the old data there is around 300 candidates per point yes. Roughly.

https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

But if you see slide 5 of the PDF, most invites to people without job offer or pnp in the bracket of 450-499. Hence it can't be correctly interpreted that the drop is because of lower scores on job.
CRS is unpredictable..may go up

 

[vabs200]

Likewise Vabs, same here. I missed by 1 point on 2 separate draws in 2015 before my scored dropped due to age. I'll lose another 5 points in mid march, so I'm hoping the next 3 draws drop to 447.

Good luck! I am at 447 as well and am sure we'll both receive our ITAs on the same day (hopefully before mid-March). It would be a well-deserved birthday gift for you