RAY of HOPE 52nd Draw (Predictions)

[viveksegu]

I don't think they'll reduce number of ITAs or change CRS rules in the near future. For people at the range of 460 - 468 (like you and me), the thing to be worried about is that how many PNP and LMIA are issued between every two draws...

Number of LMIAs and PNPs don't worry me at all. LMIA don't get a lot points now and PNPs are not more than 600 every two weeks. According to trend from last year, the lowest scores were during the period Sep to Mar. I think the same trend will continue this time.

 

[fatani]

Number of LMIAs and PNPs don't worry me at all. LMIA don't get a lot points now and PNPs are not more than 600 every two weeks. According to trend from last year, the lowest scores were during the period Sep to Mar. I think the same trend will continue this time.

The scores went high from april 2016 because they reduced the number of ITAs which is not going to happen in 2017. The scores will fall consistently from now on because the number of people getting cleared in 2 weeks is much higher than the number of new people coming with high scores PNPs and improved scores.

 

[fatani]

If the ITAs remain in 2900-3000 level I can see next draw the score will fall below 465. And even coming to a level of very early 460s. Lots of people were not believing me when I told them the scores will fall below and I am saying it again if it remains as it is we will see scores going to 450 level by late Feb early March and than it will break the most hated barrier of 450.

 

[sunchaser]

If the ITAs remain in 2900-3000 level I can see next draw the score will fall below 465. And even coming to a level of very early 460s. Lots of people were not believing me when I told them the scores will fall below and I am saying it again if it remains as it is we will see scores going to 450 level by late Feb early March and than it will break the most hated barrier of 450.

Hope that IRCC keeps draw at 2500+ level 8)

 

[narindersahib]

Guys,

Can some one calculate my years of experience which is acceptable to CIC ( the way they calculate it). I have received ITA in last draw, but want to keep it on hold until next 2 draws. This is just to clear my doubt of completing actual 3 years of exp. CRS is 469.

First Exp :- 27th May13 to 06Aug15 ( I really want to know if days lie between 27th july15 to 06Aug15 are countable)
2nd exp:- 16th Nov15 to 13th may 16
3rd Exp :- 26th Sept ( Current).

TIA.

 

[akkipandey]

May your wish be granted soon ! (Siting at 446 if that helps!)

448 guys...

 

[Broken Heart]

Guys,

Can some one calculate my years of experience which is acceptable to CIC ( the way they calculate it). I have received ITA in last draw, but want to keep it on hold until next 2 draws. This is just to clear my doubt of completing actual 3 years of exp. CRS is 469.

First Exp :- 27th May13 to 06Aug15 ( I really want to know if days lie between 27th july15 to 06Aug15 are countable)
2nd exp:- 16th Nov15 to 13th may 16
3rd Exp :- 26th Sept ( Current).

TIA.

Obviously you are missing 2 weeks as of today, and from what I understand you received an ITA which you chose not to decline, almost 1 month before completing the 3 years. Meaning at time of ITA your crs score is not what the system gave you.

In other words, if the VO is strict with your case he will recalculate based on 2 years, if your crs score based on two years is above the cut-off score of the draw you accepted your ITA in, then you are fine, otherwise after 4 months of wait you receive a nice rejection letter based on what I just explained, but you will be allowed to reapply again.

If that's the case, wait another two weeks and submit after 25th Jan. Or submit now if second scenario.

Good luck.

 

[narindersahib]

Obviously you are missing 2 weeks as of today, and from what I understand you received an ITA which you chose not to decline, almost 1 month before completing the 3 years. Meaning at time of ITA your crs score is not what the system gave you.

In other words, if the VO is strict with your case he will recalculate based on 2 years, if your crs score based on two years is above the cut-off score of the draw you accepted your ITA in, then you are fine, otherwise after 4 months of wait you receive a nice rejection letter based on what I just explained, but you will be allowed to reapply again.

If that's the case, wait another two weeks and submit after 25th Jan. Or submit now if second scenario.

Good luck.

So you did not include days between 27th july 15 to 6th Aug15. May I know your perception for same ? if I include them, on 15th Jan I would be completing 3 years of exp

 

[astralsource]

The scores went high from april 2016 because they reduced the number of ITAs which is not going to happen in 2017. The scores will fall consistently from now on because the number of people getting cleared in 2 weeks is much higher than the number of new people coming with high scores PNPs and improved scores.

Why they have reduced number of ITAs so drastically last year? Because of quota?

How do we know when the quota for 2017 exactly started so we can calculate the number of ITAs and predict the numbers?

 

[Broken Heart]

So you did not include days between 27th july 15 to 6th Aug15. May I know your perception for same ? if I include them, on 15th Jan I would be completing 3 years of exp

I did.

First exp: 801 days.
2nd exp: 179 days.
3rd exp: 102 days
Total = 1082 days.................3 yrs = 365x3 = 1095......difference= 1095-1082= 13 days = 2 weeks = Friday 20th Jan.

 

[Broken Heart]

Why they have reduced number of ITAs so drastically last year? Because of quota?

How do we know when the quota for 2017 exactly started so we can calculate the number of ITAs and predict the numbers?

Many believe that they did reduce ITAs because of the Syrian Refugee Program, also old PR paper applications.

Hopefully both application got reduced drastically for this year, meaning expectations of higher number of ITAs for 2017....!!!

 

[astralsource]

@Broken Heart yes theres definitely smaller target for refugees this year, and less backlog together with higher quota and smaller LMIA effect should grant ITA for everyone on 430+ in this year. Im pretty positive on that one.

 

[I2C2017]

With the current trend, breach of 450 threshold seems very likely by April 2017.

 

[narindersahib]

I did.

First exp: 801 days.
2nd exp: 179 days.
3rd exp: 102 days
Total = 1082 days.................3 yrs = 365x3 = 1095......difference= 1095-1082= 13 days = 2 weeks = Friday 20th Jan.

Any reason for not including the last working day in experience? we may have draw on 18th Jan just trying to avoid to be considered under Section A11.2

 

[Kearnixer]

We cannot predict until and unless we have the 2016 year end report. Hope they update it before the next draw :-X

No bold guesses?