~~RAY of HOPE 51st Draw~~ (Predictions)

[kryt0n]

easy now Kryt0n, unless where you are it is already Tuesday.

I think it is either 4th, 5th or 6th. Most probably Wednesday the 4th. CRS I guess around same as last time for first draw of the year. Hope I am wrong and it is 450.

Oh yea! Days are totally messed up

 

[azaadpanchee]

472 CRS

don't say that - I'm at 471!

 

[ashrafk]

Hi Everyone and happy new year to all. Hope we all have a wonderful 2017 and may all are dreams come true (Specially the one where we become Canadian citizens soon )

I have seen many discussions happening around the topic of how many post express entry files are pending with IRCC to be processed and the numbers were humongous. Today since i was free at work and just happened to wondered into the IRCC website's open data section and came across a "Permanent and Temporary Resident Applications Overview", which is updated till Sep 30, 2016.

I may be wrong but as per my understating and analysis of this file, I believe that 29843 files were processed from Sep 2015 till Sep 2016 and there were only 8365 files pending as at Sep 2016 for categories' which are now part of express entry, namely CEC, FSW and FST (not including PNP as they still have both express and non express PNP options) the remaining files will still be there but are not part of the express entry and will continue as non express entry (to name a few caregiver program, Federal Business, any thing with Quebec, family, refugees and ........)

Therefore to fill the quote of CEC, FSW and FST IRCC will be relying on Express entry candidates. Meaning they will at least increase the number of ITA by approx. 30,000 for the year 2017, this is evident by the increase in the ITA since Sep 2016 and hopefully continue in 2017.

Just want everyone to stay positive, give your best shot to max your scores and hopefully we all would get the ITA soon. All the best.

(Sorry did not have the patience to align all the data, sucks cant input tables) if any ones interested they can check the file at

http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/0186868b-a04d-4a0e-962e-bdfbac51bfb3

IRCC Overview - September 30, 2016 Line of Business "Intake (in persons)" "Output (Approved, Refused & Withdrawn) (in persons)" "Approval Rate Approved" "Inventory (in persons)" "Processing Time(in months for PR and in days for TR)" "2015 (Sep)""2016 (Sep)" "2015 (Sep)""2016 (Sep)"% change "2015 (Sep)""2016 (Sep)" "2015 (Sep)""2016 (Sep)"% Change "2015 (Sep)""2016 (Sep)"%Change Permanent Resident Overall 190,029 217,735 265,056 259,780 -2% 89% 92% 390,487 368,877 -6% 28 23 -18% Economic 90,458 89,451 170,697 125,091 -27% 92% 93% 171,059 143,938 -16% 21 20 -5% Federal Skilled Workers 8,257 8,302 48,092 25,572 -47% 90% 92% 32,981 10,120 -69% 16 17 6% Pre-C50 248 64 -74% 61% 55% 122 59 -52% 124 141 14% MI 1 2,141 345 -84% 76% 70% 841 310 -63% 16 19 19% MI 2 - M12 225 6 43,932 11,938 -73% 91% 90% 25,595 5,780 -77% MI-1 to MI-12 225 6 46,073 12,283 -73% 90% 89% 26,436 6,090 -77% Express Entry 8,032 8,296 1,771 13,225 n/a 90% 95% 6,423 3,971 -38% 5 6 - Federal Skilled Trades 3,083 2,252 2,340 2,015 -14% 78% 91% 1,459 1,732 19% 6 6 0% Non Express Entry 9 1 524 180 -66% 75% 82% 256 28 -89% 10 20 - Express Entry 3,074 2,251 1,816 1,835 n/a 85% 91% 1,203 1,704 42% 5 6 - Quebec Skilled Workers 18,309 18,904 24,024 20,709 -14% 97% 98% 17,457 19,073 9% 17 12 -29% Federal Business 1,094 502 3,680 2,825 -23% 20% 18% 6,270 3,094 -51% 111 96 -14% Ministerial Instruction Economic Programs 122 112 70 80 14% 69% 90% 101 158 56% 8 11 38% Start-up Visa 114 112 70 80 14% 69% 90% 95 141 48% 8 11 38% Investor Venture Capital 8 - n/a 97% 6 17 183% - - - Quebec Business 3,546 1,879 3,536 4,202 19% 98% 96% 15,685 13,804 -12% 45 40 -11% Provincial Nominee Program 36,302 36,100 44,519 40,715 -9% 94% 97% 40,152 50,065 25% 15 15 0% Non Express Entry 34,564 27,871 43,968 32,588 -26% 94% 95% 38,905 46,024 18% 15 16 7% Express Entry 1,738 8,229 551 8,127 n/a 73% 96% 1,247 4,041 224% 3 5 67% Caregiver Program 9,169 10,039 24,876 14,081 -43% 98% 96% 42,139 35,092 -17% 47 50 6% Live-in Caregiver Program (LCP) 8,835 9,297 24,611 13,470 -45% 98% 96% 42,061 34,887 -17% 47 51 9% High Meds 238 353 203 283 n/a 79% 96% 53 99 87% 1 2 100% Caring for Children 96 389 62 328 n/a 53% 93% 25 106 324% 2 2 0% Canadian Experience Class 10,576 11,361 19,560 14,892 -24% 93% 95% 14,815 10,800 -27% 14 19 36% Non Express Entry 3 5 12,281 7,227 -41% 94% 90% 11,394 2,188 -81% 15 21 40% Express Entry 10,573 11,356 7,279 7,665 n/a 72% 89% 3,421 8,612 152% 4 6 50% Family 62,376 72,747 63,371 74,129 17% 87% 88% 134,696 129,593 -4% 35 28 -20% Spouses, Partners, and Children (incl. Family - Compasionate and Humanitarian) 53,082 55,072 47,261 59,400 26% 87% 86% 79,601 79,225 0% 21 19 -10% Domestic 16,161 16,402 13,503 19,159 42% 89% 0% 26,365 33,237 26% 26 23 -12% Overseas 36,921 38,670 33,758 40,241 19% 86% 96% 53,236 45,988 -14% 18 16 -11% Parents and Grandparents 9,294 17,675 16,110 14,729 -9% 85% 0% 55,095 50,368 -9% 74 72 -3% Humanitarian 37,195 55,537 30,988 60,560 95% 78% 0% 84,732 95,346 13% 38 24 -37% Government Assisted Refugees (GAR) 5,545 14,828 5,994 19,981 233% 90% 75% 12,698 17,246 36% 17 15 -12% Federal GAR 4,842 13,500 4,750 17,778 274% 90% 0% 12,301 16,557 35% 17 14 -18% Quebec GAR 703 1,328 1,244 2,203 77% 93% 59% 397 689 74% 17 19 12% Privately Sponsored Refugees 12,459 22,770 7,796 18,864 142% 69% 94% 27,787 34,008 22% 56 49 -13% Blended Visa Office Referred 1,776 1,693 259 3,956 1427% 92% 0% 773 1,053 36% 16 14 -13% Protected Persons Landed in Canada 6,971 7,365 7,333 7,899 8% 96% 94% 17,108 17,334 1% 34 32 -6% Dependants Abroad (DR2) 3,162 3,593 3,324 3,481 5% 85% 89% 13,068 13,154 1% Humanitarian & Compassionate Cases 6,695 4,933 5,656 5,834 3% 51% 71% 11,903 11,587 -3% 38 36 -5% Public Policy 500 294 576 471 -18% 89% 90% 1,290 875 -32% Other4 87 61 50 74 48% 81% 92% 105 89 -15% - - Temporary Resident Overall 1,808,411 2,035,549 1,748,977 2,043,250 17% 83% 82% 70,336 83,719 19% N/A N/A N/A Temporary Resident Visa 1,215,768 1,403,503 1,208,430 1,385,862 15% 82% 81% 42,220 62,824 49% 17 18 6% Visitor Record 74,977 74,127 61,990 84,886 37% 91% 93% -- -- 101 117 16% Study Permit 139,764 169,698 140,997 168,198 19% 74% 71% 14,180 10,496 -26% 39 38 -3% Study Permit - Extensions 96,747 103,392 85,821 102,300 19% 95% 96% -- -- 62 48 -23% Work Permit - (including LCP) 124,077 138,478 129,145 135,212 5% 88% 90% 13,936 10,399 -25% 57 39 -32% Work Permit - Extensions 157,078 146,351 122,594 166,792 36% 87% 90% -- -- 102 116 14%

[tr][td]
Notes:
1 Permanent Resident and Citizenship processing time should read as 80% of cases finalized in the last 12 months were completed within X months or less.
2 Family Class processing times and age of inventory based on applications lock-in date. Due to data constraint, FCH applications are excluded from the processing time calculation of the Family Class category.
3 The Processing Time for the Live-in Caregivers (End to End processing time) is calculated from the application received from the principal applicant to the latest finalized date from all related applications (i.e. including overseas dependent)
4 Other includes Permit Holders, Missing/Invalid, and Others.

Data Sources:
Permanent Resident: EDW (PR Datamart) as of November 20, 2016
Temporary Resident: EDW (TR Datamart) as of October 13, 2016

Report prepared by: OPMB-PMU (NHQ-Ops-Stats@cic.gc.ca)

 

[tormentor]

...
I may be wrong but as per my understating and analysis of this file, I believe that 29843 files were processed from Sep 2015 till Sep 2016 and there were only 8365 files pending as at Sep 2016 for categories' which are now part of express entry, namely CEC, FSW and FST (not including PNP as they still have both express and non express PNP options) the remaining files will still be there but are not part of the express entry and will continue as non express entry (to name a few caregiver program, Federal Business, any thing with Quebec, family, refugees and ........)....

This is great info! However, I think the number of pending applications are 14287 (3971 + 1704 + 8612) for FSW,FST, and CEC respectively. The reduction in backlog in staggering though, which means more applications to be drawn from the express entry pool.

Another nice fact to note is that the approval rate seems to be quite high for express entry. 95%,91%,89% for FSW,FST, and CEC resp.

 

[ashrafk]

This is great info! However, I think the number of pending applications are 14287 (3971 + 1704 + 8612) for FSW,FST, and CEC respectively. The reduction in backlog in staggering though, which means more applications to be drawn from the express entry pool.

Another nice fact to note is that the approval rate seems to be quite high for express entry. 95%,91%,89% for FSW,FST, and CEC resp.

Thanks Tormentor,

I believe you are correct about the number of pending applications for express entry it should be 14287. However for pending non-express entry applications it should be 8365 (59 + 6090 + 28 + 2188) for FSW (pre c50 and MI-1 to MI-12), FST (non express entry) and CEC (non express entry) respectively.

Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[tormentor]

Thanks Tormentor,

I believe you are correct about the number of pending applications for express entry it should be 14287. However for pending non-express entry applications it should be 8365 (59 + 6090 + 28 + 2188) for FSW (pre c50 and MI-1 to MI-12), FST (non express entry) and CEC (non express entry) respectively.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Yes, you are right. I thought you had originally calculated for express entry applications.

 

[Xmg2017]

Hello! Newbie here

I've been trying to search this online but i'm unable to find a definitive answer, hoping some of you can shed some light!
Does CIC accept ECA that was issued by ICES under the category "General/Basic" instead of the "For immigration purpose"?
My husband is unable to secure official docs to be sent directly by the school to ICES because for some reason the school refuses to, due to lack of the originals (from when he transferred schools). What we did was to secure certified original copies instead and got the ECA through the "General" option. We were the ones who sent the docs to ICES instead of the school.
I'm the principal applicant and i have the "for immigration" ECA since my school was able to send the docs to ICES directly.
Would this cause a problem later on / invalidate the points i'm claiming for my husband's education? Or does it not matter as long as it is an ECA issued by ICES?

Appreciate your thoughts! Thank you!

 

[Wolverine17]

When are scores expected to drop below 460

 

[Almostther]

When are scores expected to drop below 460

I am interested in the answer to the question too.. I think it should be in late March or April..

 

[Castillo]

I am interested in the answer to the question too.. I think it should be in late March or April..

No one knows when! The next two draws might give a hint. I believe scores should!d drop faster than they would have done if lmia points weren't reduced. Also, provided ita per draws stays at above 2k and draws are regular!

 

[Wolverine17]

I am interested in the answer to the question too.. I think it should be in late March or April..

I am asking since will need to plan for a vaccation to get my pcc etc so will see

 

[Castillo]

I am asking since will need to plan for a vaccation to get my pcc etc so will see

You need to travel to get ur pcc?

 

[williameyidi]

Fingers crossed for tomorrow wenesday 04th, CRS 465-/+.

 

[Castillo]

Fingers crossed for tomorrow wenesday 04th, CRS 465-/+.

Yea u right 465+/-2

 

[farhanyou123]

Fingers crossed for tomorrow wenesday 04th, CRS 465-/+.

I keep saying 465 / -2 hahahah as m at 463.

Fingers crossed, gudluck all..