At the same time during this summer (April to August), the PNP activity was much lower than now.
With that factor you would end up with app. same amount of non PNP applicants per month in this draw
(back than it was like 800 per draw - 150 PNP = 1300 non PNP per month. Now it is 1930 for December - 630 PNP nominations = 1300 non PNP applicants per month).
On that patern you can clearly see that larger group of applicants must have benefited from the changes in November. And that group is larger than the group of applicants that have lost some points (LMIA). So the whole score has moved around 15 to 20 points up. So if in the past the lowest score was around 450 now we will have treshold at 470.
So unless they will increase number of applicants that can pass through the EE system. And at the same time the amount of new applicants per month will not increase, there is not much chance of any further score drop. That means that 470 will become 450 before.