Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

[indianstudent96]

I see lots of conspiracy theories here. If it is so prevalent, IRCC would have taken measures to prevent this. Also, ECA and TRF are unique to candidates, so they would get caught immediately. I do not think one can just enter the pool without submitting them.

People should stop overthinking and simply accept the high cut-off score as the competition is higher due to obvious reasons.

Outland candidates under 30 with a CLB 10, master's degree, and three years of work experience get 481 which is more than enough to get an ITA these days.

FSW candidates from other English speaking countries can easily achieve this. They are opting to immigrate to Canada due to stringent immigration policies in other countries.

The Express Entry system is not complicated to understand at all, I will remind everyone about it here: The system invites top 'n' number of candidates and the candidates are ranked from #1 to #n during the draw. Let's say they are issuing 3500 ITAs, they invite candidates with ranks 1-3500 and the cut-off score is merely the score of the candidate with the 3500th rank. Tie-breaker time comes in only when there are multiple candidates with the cut-off score and the candidates (with the cut-off score) who created profiles earlier than the tie-breaking rule get ITAs.

Analyzing the recent draws gives us an idea of top-ranked candidates in the pool.

As of March 3, 2020, there were 568 candidates with more than 600 CRS points while 21,905 had scores in the range of 451-600. Most candidates with 600+ CRS scores have PNPs, so subtract them from the number of ITAs to get the number of candidates with scores in the range of the cutoff to 600. The last draw had a cut-off score of 471, so 3900-568 gives us 3,332 candidates with scores in the range of 471 to 600. Tie-breaking rule was Feb 24, 2020, which suggests 3,332 candidates are mostly new or improved their scores within the last two weeks.

I wish IRCC released data for 451-600 just like 401-450 in the increments of 10 points. The majority of candidates in the range 451-600 have scores below 471, we can get that number by subtracting 3,332 from 21,905 which gives us 18,573.

How can the cut-off go down? The cut-off score can go down if we have fewer candidates with 471+ scores entering the pool in the following weeks assuming that IRCC keeps the draw size consistent.

However, the last few draws do not indicate that. It is highly likely that an FST draw will take place this April. Historically, FST draws lead to a higher cut-off score. If you are a candidate with a score below 470 but can achieve 470+ by re-taking IELTS or CELPIP, now is your chance. Do not wait!

There's no way to say for sure. IRCC could send more invites with the next draw, or another 4500 ITA draw, or a B2B. Or there could be a slow-down in applicants; the last few months may have just been in reaction to US and UK immigration changes. Also, the next IELTS General result date seems to be after the upcoming draw (assuming there's a draw on 18th), that could have an impact. Unless you are able to increase your CRS there's nothing left to do but be hopeful.




I think the FST will still occur in May. I don't see why April having 3 Wednesdays would impact the usual schedule of a mid-late May FST draw.

That's exactly what I said. I have underlined it.

There's no way to say for sure. IRCC could send more invites with the next draw, or another 4500 ITA draw, or a B2B. Or there could be a slow-down in applicants; the last few months may have just been in reaction to US and UK immigration changes. Also, the next IELTS General result date seems to be after the upcoming draw (assuming there's a draw on 18th), that could have an impact. Unless you are able to increase your CRS there's nothing left to do but be hopeful.



I think the FST will still occur in May. I don't see why April having 3 Wednesdays would impact the usual schedule of a mid-late May FST draw.

There seems to be a pattern with FST draws happening in months with 5 Wednesdays. No one but IRCC knows about it. We will have to wait and see.

 

[Canex17]

That's exactly what I said. I have underlined it.

Well, it's not exactly what you said. lol But okay then... I just expanded on it.

There seems to be a pattern with FST draws happening in months with 5 Wednesdays. No one but IRCC knows about it. We will have to wait and see.

There's a pattern of it occurring in May too though. It just seems more likely to maintain the usual schedule rather than move it a month ahead because of how many Wednesdays that month has. But, like everything else surrounding this system, we won't know anything until it happens.

 

[indianstudent96]

Well, it's not exactly what you said. lol But okay then... I just expanded on it.



There's a pattern of it occurring in May too though. It just seems more likely to maintain the usual schedule rather than move it a month ahead because of how many Wednesdays that month has. But, like everything else surrounding this system, we won't know anything until it happens.

Lol, we both can safely agree on something - waiting for the CRS score to drop is a bad idea due to the recent cut-off scores.

 

[Issygn]

I feel you. I already had an ITA but due to an uncooperative ex-employer I couldn't prove exact details for one of my positions. It ended up costing me points, time, and money. And then when I finally get my points back up to 469 I just miss the draw in December. I really thought the last draw would be it, but it went up a point instead of down one. I have til July until my birthday when another 5 points are lost. A few years over 29 can really make a huge difference to your score.

I totally grasp your situation and i felt really bad about it coz i was once in that position. I missed an NOI and then struggled afterwards. Just stick around even if you don’t get an ITA before July, you might be lucky with A PNP or any of these pilot streams. Apply to any that you can and if you can study French then fine . If you cannot, maybe you look into further studies in Canada. It seems to be that Canada is pushing hard for more students to come in and acquire PR through that means.

 

[Issygn]

It's crazy to think about how 3 years ago people with a score of 413 were receiving ITAs. The competition is fierce nowadays, I wish the best luck to all of you waiting.

That is quite understandable . The weird part is how 467-468 never happened in draws and how the scores went from 463 to 470+ and never declined till date . So many things just happened so quickly

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

I predict its only going to go up more in the coming year. Good thing is UK is opening up its immigration policies a little bit more starting next year

 

[navinball]

Just purchased 4 onions for 7 bucks at a local nofrills. Come to canada at your own risk.

 

[Issygn]

Just purchased 4 onions for 7 bucks at a local nofrills. Come to canada at your own risk.

 

[Issygn]

I predict its only going to go up more in the coming year. Good thing is UK is opening up its immigration policies a little bit more starting next year

Lets just leave the UK out of this , been there
You can’t even find a decent job if you ain’t a medical practitioner.

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

There are around 700000+ intl students in Canada right now. Who wants to bet they're going to increasing their points in the oncoming year...

 

[Mustafa Ghias]

No

no classroom based

Hi Priyanka,

How long is the french course and which are the cities in which it is conducted and what about the fees.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Priyanka2010]

Hi Priyanka,

How long is the french course and which are the cities in which it is conducted and what about the fees.

Thanks in advance.

This is in Delhi, India. I have finally joined a tutor for weekday classes of 90 minutes each. He said that if I practice atleast 2 hrs a day, I can achieve B2 level in 8 months.

 

[Owen Takudzwa]

Is DELF French language test result accepted for EE?

No it's not, it's accepted in Quebec though and the process for applying there is different from EE. Please email me on owentakudzwamlambo@gmail.com so we share insights on french for Canada.

 

[pessacanada]

Just purchased 4 onions for 7 bucks at a local nofrills. Come to canada at your own risk.

That Nofrills should be located in a 5 star hotel my friend.
Yesterday, I bought 3 pound (6 onions) for 2.97 CAD, also at NoFrills which is quite interesting.

 

[ya222]

I remember ray of hopes threads used to be 140-150 pages sometimes more than that, People used to answer so quickly, Draws after draws, threads are becoming shorter and people becoming desperate. Not pointing anybody just stating the fact. It will go more and more ugly. I hope at least people above 460 make it through in 2020