Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

[harbee]

Hi everyone,
Please I need your guide;

I received ITA today March 4th score of 471, meanwhile my 1 year Canadian work experience will be April 21st.

Do I accept or deny the invitation to wait till I am exactly 1 year (April 21st)?
I will appreciate your response. Thank you

 

[navinball]

Hi everyone,
Please I need your guide;

I received ITA today March 4th score of 471, meanwhile my 1 year Canadian work experience will be April 21st.

Do I accept or deny the invitation to wait till I am exactly 1 year (April 21st)?
I will appreciate your response. Thank you

If you submit your application after apr 21st you should be fine.

 

[harbee]

If you submit your application after apr 21st you should be fine.

Thank you Navinball. I have read lots of similar cases. I think i will just decline the invite and wait till April 21st, just to be safe.
Thanks much

 

[Eng.abla]

there was a poster here who learnt french from scratch in 9 months and got the necessary points and detailed everything in a post. after reading that post i will never attempt to learn french.

Hello

Kindly do you have the post link for learning French. I am stuck at 463 and will lose 5 points in September

 

[pessacanada]

Thank you Navinball. I have read lots of similar cases. I think i will just decline the invite and wait till April 21st, just to be safe.
Thanks much

If you do so, please withdraw your profile until April 21. This may help someone to get an ITA.

 

[chirkut]

Still very high score. Do you think it will continue go up later this year?

never ...not less than 465 atleast

 

[Islander216]

If you do so, please withdraw your profile until April 21. This may help someone to get an ITA.

Agreed, you may keep getting an ITA which you're going to decline, that would have gone to someone else.

 

[akhil994]

Thank you Navinball. I have read lots of similar cases. I think i will just decline the invite and wait till April 21st, just to be safe.
Thanks much

Man you should not be declining the ITA. You are wasting one candidate’s ITA. You will be fine if you submit after you complete 1 year. Think of all the people who would love to be in your place of even getting an ITA

 

[psawardekar]

daw	cutoff	date	invites		>600	450-600	400-450	350-400	300-350	<300	above 450
138	471	March 4, 2020	3900		568​	21905​	41512​	50130​	27719​	3602​	22473​
137	470	February 19, 2020	4,500		536​	21116​	41490​	49558​	27668​	3674​	21652​
136	472	February 5, 2020	3,500		439​	19861​	41655​	49178​	27475​	3719​	20300​
135	471	January 22, 2020	3,400		778​	19458​	41424​	48562​	27356​	3680​	20236​
134	473	January 8, 2020	3,400		567​	18789​	40965​	47874​	27117​	3643​	19356​
133	469	December 19, 2019	3,200		440​	16226​	40475​	47064​	26777​	3660​	16666​
132	472	December 11, 2019	3,200		715​	15917​	40533​	47004​	26779​	3687​	16632​
131	471	November 27, 2019	3,600		709​	14915​	40879​	46932​	26644​	3769​	15624​
130	472	November 13, 2019	3,600		757​	14180​	40729​	46577​	26501​	3777​	14937​
129	475	October 30, 2019	3,900		1255​	12999​	40730​	46197​	26384​	3834​	14254​
128	357	October 16, 2019	500		509​	9632​	40506​	45580​	25879​	3775​	10141​
127	464	October 2, 2019	3,900		579​	8946​	40254​	44577​	25350​	3717​	9525​
126	462	September 18, 2019	3,600		420​	8202​	40064​	43862​	25042​	3688​	8622​
125	463	September 4, 2019	3,600		395​	6826​	39701​	43508​	24949​	3663​	7221​
124	457	August 20, 2019	3,600		127​	7038​	38908​	42641​	24532​	3633​	7165​
123	466	August 12, 2019	3,600		474​	6821​	38412​	42263​	24439​	3597​	7295​
122	459	July 24, 2019	3,600		262​	6193​	38013​	42000​	24245​	3577​	6455​
121	460	July 10, 2019	3,600		312​	6305​	37287​	41455​	23912​	3539​	6617​

 

[genruab]

No one on the Earth can predict IRCC. Anything and everything is possible. I belive if they wanted to drop CRS, they have plenty of ways. But it all depends on their intentions which only GOD knows. One thing I have learnt from my 2 years of struggle is that never giveup and never lose hope. Meanwhile, try to boost your score. Trend shows that cutoff is increasing. I have calculated the average of past 10 draws at every draw. It shows average increase steadily by 1 CRS point. Let see what happens next, I wish everyone could achieve their target as we all have given our best and speny alot of money.

Why would they care about dropping or increasing CRS point level? The only thing they care about is to invite and process their targeted number of immigrants which for the year of 2020 is just below 90,000 people. This does not mean 90,000 ITAs per year because many applicants come with their families, and some people get rejected on the way.

So everyone better focus on improving their scores. Otherwise look for other programs such as PNPs, start-up visa etc.

Don't forget EE program has become very popular and many people with good scores are coming in to the pool everyday. All those people who had to improve their IELTS do so, and rank higher, international students completing their Canadian experience, people completing their degrees, they all want to get on the train like many people here.

I'd suggest everyone to stop blaming the circumstances and playing "a victim". There is no certain way to predict the score now, as you don't even know how many applicants will join the pool this week.

 

[psawardekar]

"ESTIMATED" distribution of candidates above 450 on 3rd March 2020

	candidates above 450	5321​
	crs	471​
	lamda	0.0833​
Distribution of candidates having CRS above 450
crs score	number of candidates having corresponding CRS score	cumulative no of candidates above corresponding CRS score
450	1798	22473
451	1654	20675
452	1522	19021
453	1400	17499
454	1288	16099
455	1185	14810
456	1090	13625
457	1003	12535
458	923	11532
459	849	10609
460	781	9761
461	718	8980
462	661	8261
463	608	7600
464	559	6992
465	515	6432
466	474	5918
467	436	5444
468	401	5009
469	369	4608
470	339	4239
471	312	3900
472	287	3588
473	264	3301
474	243	3037
475	224	2794
476	206	2570
477	189	2365
478	174	2175
479	160	2001
480	147	1841
481	136	1694
482	125	1558
483	115	1434
484	106	1319
485	97	1213
486	89	1116
487	82	1027
488	76	945
489	70	869
490-600	232	800
>600	568	568

with this, even with 4500 ITA, the score would have dropped to 469 not much..

 

[Islander216]

Why would they care about dropping or increasing CRS point level? The only thing they care about is to invite and process their targeted number of immigrants which for the year of 2020 is just below 90,000 people. This does not mean 90,000 ITAs per year because many applicants come with their families, and some people get rejected on the way.

In truth, i agree.

I don't think IRCC have any agenda when it comes to increasing or decreasing the cut-off score.

I also think it's time for IRCC to start breaking down the range of scores between 450 to 600, so people have a better idea of where they are placed.

It's difficult to have close to 22k people in the pool in the highest score bracket and not have the distribution.

 

[Raziz]

What about CRS 470 for the upcoming draws ?

 

[psawardekar]

Last draw, there were 21,652(536+21,116) candidates in the draw above 450 before the draw.(14th feb)
out of these 4500 were above 470 who received ITA.
so, 17,152 candidates were left in the pool above 450 after the draw. and "0" candidates above 471 as all of them received ITA.


Now 2 weeks after,
there were 22,473(568+21,905) candidates in the draw above 450 before the draw.(3rd march)

so, in 14 days, 22473-17152 = 5321 new candidates entered the pool above 450.
out of these 3900 were above 471 and were invited on 4th march(above 471).

so, almost all the candidates who received ITA in this draw entered the pool in last 14 days. this is happening for almost every draw.

the net influx of candidates above 470 on consistent basis is frightening.

so, almost every candidate that is entering Canada through express entry has masters with CLB 9 in IELTS and less than 29 yrs of age.

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

Is there hope for me? I will have a score of 501 by summer of 2022 but at the rate the score is increasing, is that even going to be enough?