Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

[Impatient Dankaroo]

Until FST draw what will be max score predictions? Will it be in between 470 to 475 ?

yes, it will go up by a max of 1 per draw I predict

 

[OMK2810]

yes, it will go up by a max of 1 per draw I predict

Then your prediction for next draw is 472 ?

 

[Canex17]

Then your prediction for next draw is 472 ?

If they maintain 3900+ ITAs for the next few draws I think, in the short-term, it is likely we will see the cutoff drop by a point per draw or, at the very least, remain relatively static. The only time it has been higher than 472 was after the FST in September (475) and after the 3 week gap before the first January draw (473). It's been bouncing around between 469-472 otherwise.

 

[prax2012]

If there’s no b2b draw before the FST draw then we can kiss goodbye to the 460’s. You almost got CLB 10 !!! Why not try harder and at least sit on 470?
you just might be lucky

dont have any more patience left to study n give IELTS again. Also ielts is quite unpredictable these days. That was my best shot i guess. i m happy with CLB 10 in 3 modules

 

[prax2012]

"ESTIMATED" distribution of candidates above 450 on 3rd March 2020

	candidates above 450	5321​
	crs	471​
	lamda	0.0833​
Distribution of candidates having CRS above 450
crs score	number of candidates having corresponding CRS score	cumulative no of candidates above corresponding CRS score
450	1798	22473
451	1654	20675
452	1522	19021
453	1400	17499
454	1288	16099
455	1185	14810
456	1090	13625
457	1003	12535
458	923	11532
459	849	10609
460	781	9761
461	718	8980
462	661	8261
463	608	7600
464	559	6992
465	515	6432
466	474	5918
467	436	5444
468	401	5009
469	369	4608
470	339	4239
471	312	3900
472	287	3588
473	264	3301
474	243	3037
475	224	2794
476	206	2570
477	189	2365
478	174	2175
479	160	2001
480	147	1841
481	136	1694
482	125	1558
483	115	1434
484	106	1319
485	97	1213
486	89	1116
487	82	1027
488	76	945
489	70	869
490-600	232	800
>600	568	568

with this, even with 4500 ITA, the score would have dropped to 469 not much..

@psawardekar , from where you got this data. this is helpful if its true..unfortunately we cannot freeze the new profile entering pool, most of which are above 470 it seems

 

[Canada2628]

The system may allow a discrepency because it doesn't specify exact dates, but once your application reaches an assessing officer you have to be able to display the full 3 years of qualified experience prior to the date you apply. You'd need 10 months in your current job to hit 36 from the info you have provided. So in July.

Jan 21 2017 - Jan 21 2018 = 12 months
April 19 2018 - March 19 2019 = 11 months
April 15 2019 - July 15 2019 = 3 months
September 1 2019 - July 1 2020 = 10 months

Means If I get ITA then I should wait till I complete my 3 years of experience

 

[Mustafa Ghias]

@psawardekar , from where you got this data. this is helpful if its true..unfortunately we cannot freeze the new profile entering pool, most of which are above 470 it seems

Thanks for the estimation. This is based on statistics with normal distribution I think.

 

[psawardekar]

Thank you.. but is it really possible to add spouse accompanying later on once i get ITA??

Get into the pool with spouse non-accompanying, get the ITA, wait for spouse IELTS, and update PR application to spouse accompanying if the new score > your current score?

 

[psawardekar]

It is an estimate... Not true number... I have tracked down the CRS scored and number of candidates for past 15 draws and found The number of candidates follow two parameter exponential distribution .. with lambda aloways varying between 0.077- 0.083 ≈0.08 ... Using which i extrapolated these figures.. I may be wrong.. but it helps to visualise what is happening on 450-500 score range...

@psawardekar , from where you got this data. this is helpful if its true..unfortunately we cannot freeze the new profile entering pool, most of which are above 470 it seems

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

It is an estimate... Not true number... I have tracked down the CRS scored and number of candidates for past 15 draws and found The number of candidates follow two parameter exponential distribution .. with lambda aloways varying between 0.077- 0.083 ≈0.008 ... Using which i extrapolated these figures.. I may be wrong.. but it helps to visualise what is happening on 450-500 score range...

This is good stuff. Are you in the data analytics field?

 

[Canex17]

Means If I get ITA then I should wait till I complete my 3 years of experience

As far as I'm aware. If that's what you're claiming then that is what you have to be prepared to prove. Applying before you have the supporting evidence could result in the assessing officer rejecting your application and you would have to start all over again.

 

[kyoussef]

It may take 24 hours for the update.

Many thanks!

 

[psawardekar]

This is good stuff. Are you in the data analytics field?

No... I'm assistant professor in engineering statistics.! Definitely love data science.. trying to learn python/R in my free time..

 

[Hasan770]

Any chances of B2B draw today?

 

[seadrag0n]

Any chances of B2B draw today?

No chance.