Ray of Hope - 138th Draw

[seadrag0n]

I spent the whole day thinking about what were the reasons behind this unprecedented increase in the number of ITAs. I believe it's either:

1. To compensate for the B2B draw that should have happened in the last week of January, they decided to split these 3400 ITAs that would have been given, and today's and next 2 draws will have +1000 ITAs than the usual.

2. Maybe CIC was not expecting such increase in the number of candidates in the 450-600 range, and realized that Canada could benefit from these immigrants in the 465+ range that are currently being ignored. When the cutoff was fluctuating between 440-450, they really didn't have to pursue the candidates in the 430 range, because most of them didn't even had CLB9, they simply were not an asset for the Canadian economy. Maybe it's a crazy ideia, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they release a new target for 2020 in the coming weeks, to accommodate highly skilled professionals that want to immigrate, but are not being given the chance.

3. They're planning FST for next week, but do not want to see the usual spike in the CRS cutoff that post-FST draws usually get, because that would frighten very qualified outland candidate, that wouldn't be able to beat a +480's cutoff reality. That could easily turn EE into an inland process (pretty much just like almost all PNPs programs that required job offers).

This might be totally irrelevant and stupid but do you think they want to target people having CLB10+ in IELTS? I think there are a lot of candidates in 460+ range with CLB10+ in IELTS but have lower score due to things like age, spouse score etc.

 

[jrossi]

Not saying it's number 2 because I don't think it is, but there is no reason why they should compensate for a B2B draw in january. They dont have to make a back 2 back draw just because it happened a couple of times. And FST were included in this round. Just read the footnote. Maybe that is the reason they have more people this time.

Wow! Didn't notice that! Now these 4500 ITAs makes A LOT of sense!
And might be a great indication that we will not have a FST draw in the coming months! That would be great!

With regard to the B2B theory. No, they do not need to do a B2B draw, but they did in the past for some reason, which is probably to be able to meet the anual ITA targets. Considering this year will be the one with the most number of ITAs ever issued, a B2B would probably be mandatory for them to meet the target. I do believe they might have opted for splitting the amount that would be issue in the B2B in bigger draws, that way the increase weekly load over employees that analyze the profiles will be not as hard as a B2B draw.

 

[santiago.ac]

Wow! Didn't notice that! Now this 4500 ITAs makes A LOT of sense!
And might be a great indication that we will not have a FST draw in the coming months! That would be great!

With regard to the B2B theory. No, they do not need to do a B2B draw, but they did in the past for some reason, which is probably to be able to meet the anual ITA targets. Considering this year will be the one with the most number of ITAs ever issued, a B2B would probably be mandatory for them to meet the target. I do believe they might have opted for splitting the amount that would be issue in the B2B in bigger draws, that way the increase weekly load over employees that analyze the profiles will be not as hard as a B2B draw.

As far as I know, FST is always included. However, they make FST-only draws because most applicants in that stream have lower-than-usual scores (300-400). So, sadly, if there's a reason why the draw size has increased, it's most likely because there will be a FST draw soon.

 

[immonger]

Hey, guys, I got the ITA again (also got the full refund today thankfully) and would like to complete my new application asap!! I have an issue that I did not think about earlier and would like some thoughts on the matter. Thank you for reading!

The following are my previous employment periods.
Note: For my 2018 Closed Work Permit application, I was required to get this set of work experience documents as part of the application.

1. Company-A (employment 2011-2015)
   - I have a complete reference letter with all required details (on printed letterhead + stamped) signed by our HR manager (Dated 2015)
   

   2020 Status: Company no longer operational and HR manager's contact information is now outdated.

2. Company-B (employment 2015-2018)
   - I have a complete reference letter with all required details (on printed letterhead + stamped) signed by the CEO (Dated 2018)
   - I have an employment verification letter (on printed letterhead + stamped) signed by the CEO (Dated 2018)
   - I have a recommendation letter (on printed letterhead + stamped) signed by the CEO (Dated 2018)
   

   2020 Status: Company still operational. CEO's phone number is active but email address is now outdated.​

My question now is: Should I add a Letter of Explanation to the ePR application with the updated contact information for the employers?

 

[dimfang]

I just got my ITA. But Does anyone know why I have to submit an application again based on what I have submitted before ITA within 61 days? I thought I would just upload the copies of documents, no? Is there another 60 days to upload my documents? Please kindly resolve my doubts. Thank you in advance!

 

[YiHello]

I spent the whole day thinking about what were the reasons behind this unprecedented increase in the number of ITAs. I believe it's either:

1. To compensate for the B2B draw that should have happened in the last week of January, they decided to split these 3400 ITAs that would have been given, and today's and next 2 draws will have +1000 ITAs than the usual.

2. Maybe CIC was not expecting such increase in the number of candidates in the 450-600 range, and realized that Canada could benefit from these immigrants in the 465+ range that are currently being ignored. When the cutoff was fluctuating between 440-450, they really didn't have to pursue the candidates in the 430 range, because most of them didn't even had CLB9, they simply were not an asset for the Canadian economy. Maybe it's a crazy ideia, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they release a new target for 2020 in the coming weeks, to accommodate highly skilled professionals that want to immigrate, but are not being given the chance.

3. They're planning FST for next week, but do not want to see the usual spike in the CRS cutoff that post-FST draws usually get, because that would frighten very qualified outland candidate, that wouldn't be able to beat a +480's cutoff reality. That could easily turn EE into an inland process (pretty much just like almost all PNPs programs that required job offers).

Well, The target ITAs of 2020 and 2019 are very close. The issued ITAs until end of Feb, 2019 was 14500. After this draw, the issued ITAs is 14800 until end of Feb. Then B2B draw will continue but come back to normal number like 3500 something.

 

[psawardekar]

Lol use normal distribution may be better

normal distribution will fit the entire population from 0-1200 CRS score.. Im trying to model the distribution for people above 450. its an vague attempt but whats there to try and get some hope out of it.

 

[psawardekar]

I tried to do your math but I failed miserably. lol

If it is not a lot of trouble, could you please breakdown the ranges between 450-470? I mean, how many people there are between 450-455 / 456-460/ 461-465 and so on?

as per the estimate assuming the candidates CRS score above 450 follow exponentially distribution with lambda = 0.0785

450-459	11776​
460-469	5371​
470-479	2450​
480-489	1117​
490-600	396​
600+	541​

to expand it further,

CRS SCORE 451​	number of people having that score 1635​
452​	1511​
453​	1397​
454​	1292​
455​	1194​
456​	1104​
457​	1021​
458​	944​
459​	872​
460​	806​
461​	746​
462​	689​
463​	637​
464​	589​
465​	545​
466​	504​
467​	466​
468​	430​
469​	398​
470​	368​
471​	340​
472​	314​
473​	291​
474​	269​
475​	248​
476​	230​
477​	212​
478​	196​
479​	181​
480​	168​
481​	155​
482​	143​
483​	133​
484​	123​
485​	113​
486​	105​
487​	97​
488​	90​
489​	83​
490​	77​
491 and above​	937​

 

[killeengao]

I just got my ITA. But Does anyone know why I have to submit an application again based on what I have submitted before ITA within 61 days? I thought I would just upload the copies of documents, no? Is there another 60 days to upload my documents? Please kindly resolve my doubts. Thank you in advance!

Nope. You fill up the basic information first including some personal history for last 10yrs w/o any gap, then proceed to upload documents and pay fee

 

[TADF chemist]

as per the estimate assuming the candidates CRS score above 450 follow exponentially distribution with lambda = 0.0785

450-459	11776​
460-469	5371​
470-479	2450​
480-489	1117​
490-600	396​
600+	541​

to expand it further,

CRS SCORE 451​	number of people having that score 1635​
452​	1511​
453​	1397​
454​	1292​
455​	1194​
456​	1104​
457​	1021​
458​	944​
459​	872​
460​	806​
461​	746​
462​	689​
463​	637​
464​	589​
465​	545​
466​	504​
467​	466​
468​	430​
469​	398​
470​	368​
471​	340​
472​	314​
473​	291​
474​	269​
475​	248​
476​	230​
477​	212​
478​	196​
479​	181​
480​	168​
481​	155​
482​	143​
483​	133​
484​	123​
485​	113​
486​	105​
487​	97​
488​	90​
489​	83​
490​	77​
491 and above​	937​

Wow, many thanks for this break-down and insight. Is this your first time to come up these data? I think it is good to use your analysis to predict next draw result.
I tend to believe the score distribution for 450-500 is very sharp and therefore not necessarily normal distribution.

 

[Issygn]

No. I will advice you wait for an ITA just so you don’t have to do the medical twice ,in the case of a processing time delay.

From 467, my spouse ECA just came back today, now I'm 475, guess I should book medical now

 

[TADF chemist]

Well, The target ITAs of 2020 and 2019 are very close. The issued ITAs until end of Feb, 2019 was 14500. After this draw, the issued ITAs is 14800 until end of Feb. Then B2B draw will continue but come back to normal number like 3500 something.

May I ask you how you know the ITAs for 2020 and 2019 are very close? What I learnt is that the immigrant uptake is steadily increasing from year to year (the ambitious plan of the Canadian government). I have expected the rule-of-thumb ITA (currently something like 3600) will increase by 5-10%. But I do not have firm data.

 

[kamatchilavanya]

What about giving biometrics? Do we get separate notification email for that?

 

[SR_T]

What about giving biometrics? Do we get separate notification email for that?

Yes. You will receive a Biometrics Instruction Letter some 2 weeks after AOR.

 

[KK_THE_GREAT]

as per the estimate assuming the candidates CRS score above 450 follow exponentially distribution with lambda = 0.0785

450-459	11776​
460-469	5371​
470-479	2450​
480-489	1117​
490-600	396​
600+	541​

to expand it further,

CRS SCORE 451​	number of people having that score 1635​
452​	1511​
453​	1397​
454​	1292​
455​	1194​
456​	1104​
457​	1021​
458​	944​
459​	872​
460​	806​
461​	746​
462​	689​
463​	637​
464​	589​
465​	545​
466​	504​
467​	466​
468​	430​
469​	398​
470​	368​
471​	340​
472​	314​
473​	291​
474​	269​
475​	248​
476​	230​
477​	212​
478​	196​
479​	181​
480​	168​
481​	155​
482​	143​
483​	133​
484​	123​
485​	113​
486​	105​
487​	97​
488​	90​
489​	83​
490​	77​
491 and above​	937​

so these numbers are post yesterday's draw or pre yesterday draw?