Thanks for trying. This seems too good to be true. It will truly be Merry Christmas if 3600 on Dec 11 and 7200 on Dec 18.
Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Dear @Tousif_27 ,
Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw:
After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135
Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.
472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166
It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)
451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)
441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).
So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score
After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178
Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.
471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score
So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score
With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw).
I would like to know where you got your information from. Because if there is 7200 ITAs draw as you claim based on your information and that too after 3600 draw on 11th. Scores should drop to 457-460 as accumulation below 457 is almost 6000 based on august draw which was at 457.
If you have an “insider“ then all IRCC can know is what will be the number of invites rate at which pool size changes is beyond their control?
Trust me if your source is just some guy who is a so called immigration guru or some consultant. I would be skeptical, these are marketing gimmicks to lure people in to hiring them nothing else. I was once told by a consultant I just went to window shop that you will get onip as if he was certain I would, we all know how oinp works. I would never go for such consultants.
There has never been a draw larger then 3900. 7200 Draw is highly unlikely. Although as much as I want it to happen it is very unlikely, all logic goes against it.
I believe being pessimistic should not be the approach but, being overly optimistic is not the way to go as well. One should hope but being as a realist 465-467 is how this year will end.
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You should definitely go for it. Even if your score increases by 3 points, you will have a better chance in the next draw. There is no point in waiting and then later regretting thinking what you could've done.
are you loosing points for age soon? if not, I would say wait till 18th December. Then sit for the next Computer based IELTs if you are not picked. Because it will save you some money and pain of sitting it again 465 is a very good score and it is bound to come down to 465. It can never remain high in 470s. All backlog + New guys above 471 have been cleared in todays draw. No one here knows what is number of profiles at each score.
There will be 2 Draws in December at least. One thing is for sure, given the higher admission targets for 2020 the first half of 2020 could see high number of ITAs getting issued.This really scared meIf on the 11Dec there are less than 3500 ITAs, which would mean that there is no more draws this year
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That's okay, he lost his brain after today's draw!! Or just drunk lol!! JK
Sitting at 458 till March 2020.. I don't see any hope with this on going pattern of crs draws... First quarter of 2020... What are the realistic predictions anyway?
Well, Age is not a concern for me as I am only 26 and after 1 year, I can claim 25 more points for 3 year experience, resulting in CRS 490. But , I don't have the luxury of spending Rs. 13000 + 9500 (in case I go for EOR) just to gain 3 or may be 6 additional points.
I am sorry but this look good enough to be true! I don’t underestimate your effort though