Ray of Hope - 130th Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
Let’s get some positivity going after today’s expected draw.
This draw was beneficial in one way it made running some calculations on Spreadsheet easier for me with alot less assumptions used to determine profile increase rate. So assuming the rate at which PNP and Profiles are getting added stays the same. I am able to Predict Below Scenarios:
Scenario One: Assuming CIC goes for the historic 18% to 20% higher ITAs than target.
Expected ITAs Under this Scenario: 95,100 (Approx)
To achieve the above CIC has two options:
Option One:
Conduct 6 Draws (3 in November and 3 in December)
Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 452-455
Option Two (Unlikely):
Increase the number of invites to 5,850
Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 454-456
Chances of it happening:
I have a feeling that 6 draws is possible, however given the disappointment IRCC has been I wouldn’t be surprised that the 18% to 20% increased ITA is not achieved this year. If this happens it would be best case scenario and would make a lot of people (including me) happy.
Scenario Two: 5 Draws
B2B in November between Regular draws and one B2B in December as expected.
Prediction for 2019 last draw: 456-459
Chances of it happening:
Speaking with hope. This scenario is highly probable. Lets hope for this one at least.
Scenario 3: CIC disappoints
CIC Continues the disappointing run with 4 draws and an expected December B2B
Prediction for last draw of 2019: 461-464
Chances of it happening:
90% of people are prepared for this scenario already. This Scenario will be a big disappointment. IRCC/Liberals you should be better then this.
Take aways from above Scenarios:
1. 461-475 guys please stop worrying you have a real chance even if CIC continues the disappointing trend. You guys make 450s like me anxious like hell.
2. PNPs are expected to decrease as most PNPs are done with their nomination quotas so take the last scenario range as worst case could be one or two points lower.
3. 455+ people even without any big surprise can hope for ITA in Q1 of 2020
This draw was beneficial in one way it made running some calculations on Spreadsheet easier for me with alot less assumptions used to determine profile increase rate. So assuming the rate at which PNP and Profiles are getting added stays the same. I am able to Predict Below Scenarios:
Scenario One: Assuming CIC goes for the historic 18% to 20% higher ITAs than target.
Expected ITAs Under this Scenario: 95,100 (Approx)
To achieve the above CIC has two options:
Option One:
Conduct 6 Draws (3 in November and 3 in December)
Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 452-455
Option Two (Unlikely):
Increase the number of invites to 5,850
Prediction for 2019 Last Draw: 454-456
Chances of it happening:
I have a feeling that 6 draws is possible, however given the disappointment IRCC has been I wouldn’t be surprised that the 18% to 20% increased ITA is not achieved this year. If this happens it would be best case scenario and would make a lot of people (including me) happy.
Scenario Two: 5 Draws
B2B in November between Regular draws and one B2B in December as expected.
Prediction for 2019 last draw: 456-459
Chances of it happening:
Speaking with hope. This scenario is highly probable. Lets hope for this one at least.
Scenario 3: CIC disappoints
CIC Continues the disappointing run with 4 draws and an expected December B2B
Prediction for last draw of 2019: 461-464
Chances of it happening:
90% of people are prepared for this scenario already. This Scenario will be a big disappointment. IRCC/Liberals you should be better then this.
Take aways from above Scenarios:
1. 461-475 guys please stop worrying you have a real chance even if CIC continues the disappointing trend. You guys make 450s like me anxious like hell.
2. PNPs are expected to decrease as most PNPs are done with their nomination quotas so take the last scenario range as worst case could be one or two points lower.
3. 455+ people even without any big surprise can hope for ITA in Q1 of 2020
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Hello friends,
If I fill in individual profile (without spouse) I'll be scored 495. but I need to apply with my spouse. We currently have 463 without an english exam for my spouse. She has scheduled one this weekend which will bump us up hopefully to 475+
The issue however, is that we have a very little time because her work permit expires in 2 months.
My question for you guys: Is there any penalty or consequence if I made 2 separate profiles? 1 for myself alone and one with my spouse just be on the safe side?
If I fill in individual profile (without spouse) I'll be scored 495. but I need to apply with my spouse. We currently have 463 without an english exam for my spouse. She has scheduled one this weekend which will bump us up hopefully to 475+
The issue however, is that we have a very little time because her work permit expires in 2 months.
My question for you guys: Is there any penalty or consequence if I made 2 separate profiles? 1 for myself alone and one with my spouse just be on the safe side?
Two profiles is not allowed if found in violation it could mean both profiles being deleted and end of your chances for PR. 463 CRS should get you through by December. 475 would get you through easily. Just make a profile with 463 and update IELTs once result is available.
Yes B1 level in TCF might need much hard work. However, I'm planning to keep practising IELTS writing, hoping to boost my score from 7 to 7.5 in months.
At the same time, I'm going to apply for courses of Canadian institutes.
Is anybody doing the same too? I wonder if the admission criteria are getting difficult these days?
It looks like the score will be 470~480 next year.
As a non-native speaker, English exams are really tough for me. I need 1 more on Celpip writing or 0.5 on IELTS speaking, in order to bump me from 420+ to 490+. Figures crossed for re-evaluation.
Aging would decrease my score further next January. Should I consider to get a degree in Canada if I can not make it in English exams? But I heard it is next to impossible for people with a Ph.D. to get a student visa.
As a non-native speaker, English exams are really tough for me. I need 1 more on Celpip writing or 0.5 on IELTS speaking, in order to bump me from 420+ to 490+. Figures crossed for re-evaluation.
Aging would decrease my score further next January. Should I consider to get a degree in Canada if I can not make it in English exams? But I heard it is next to impossible for people with a Ph.D. to get a student visa.
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Hi guys, just kind of confused, do you need to have the required amount of money for proof of fund sitting down in your account for 6 months?