Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[zagcollins]

No, I don’t work for the govt dude. Its just my point of view so no need to be naive. I’ll be happy to be proved wrong though.
Thanks.

PoVs are great and welcome, but PoVs that are near impossible to prove would be better best unshared; who is it helping anyway? A lot of the -ve energy here is thanks to such posts. When I was trying to emigrate to Canada a while ago, this forum had really helpful members and they tried to help each other wherever possible. All I see now on RoH is:

A. Canada sucks!
B. Score for next draw will be X (Which is fair although it has become more and more unpredictable)
C. Politics and how immigration strategies will change going ahead.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

It has been 4 weeks and that is true. But I dont think the CRS score can be sustained in the 470 range for more than 1 draw. After the Oct 30th draw the score is supposed to fall in the 465 range I think.
Friends, what do you all feel?

I agree and I have feeling IRCC will pull out some surprises in a positive way. Current ITA level is too low and they are bound to surprise us in Nov/Dec. Either with B2B draws or increased invitations.

Also I was thinking the ITA targets are for FST, FSW and CEC. PNPs have a separate Quota for PNPs although some pnps are processed via EE may not be actually using up 81,400 Quota (I might be wrong). As I think once you get PNP you are no longer part of FSW, CEC or FST. You get classified as PNP. 81,400 mentions FSW CEC and FST. So future draws maybe more frequent or larger to make up that 20% increased invitation numbers. Maybe it is not rejection but neutraliser for PNP effect. This is just a theory only IRCC knows what they are doing we can only guess and stay positive.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

In addition, To Support my theory about 20% more invitations. ONIP has issued 6033 invitations and almost all through Express Entry. This Quota of 6900 that they got for entire year how ironic if it was from FSW, CEC and FST Quota? I think we need to add a different prospective to the whole ITA issued Vs ITA Target to continue hoping for more invites and draw. It’s not over till it is over.

 

[Rkd@321]

I agree and I have feeling IRCC will pull out some surprises in a positive way. Current ITA level is too low and they are bound to surprise us in Nov/Dec. Either with B2B draws or increased invitations.

Also I was thinking the ITA targets are for FST, FSW and CEC. PNPs have a separate Quota for PNPs although some pnps are processed via EE may not be actually using up 81,400 Quota (I might be wrong). As I think once you get PNP you are no longer part of FSW, CEC or FST. You get classified as PNP. 81,400 mentions FSW CEC and FST. So future draws maybe more frequent or larger to make up that 20% increased invitation numbers. Maybe it is not rejection but neutraliser for PNP effect. This is just a theory only IRCC knows what they are doing we can only guess and stay positive.

Total ITA's issued so far = 67300
Expected ITA to atleast be equal to that of 2018 issued ITA levels = 89000

So, 89800-67300 = 21,700

If we take the further draws of 3900 size then it should be around 6 draws again remaining. This means 1 in October, 2 in november, 2 in december and remaining 1 surprise draw (B2B) in december which may just surpass the target levels of 2019.

Just guesstimating. :-D

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Total ITA's issued so far = 67300
Expected ITA to atleast be equal to that of 2018 issued ITA levels = 89000

So, 89800-67300 = 21,700

If we take the further draws of 3900 size then it should be around 6 draws again. This means 1 in October, 2 in november, 2 in december and remaining 1 surprise draw (B2B) in december which may just surpass the target levels of 2019.

Just guesstimating. :-D

Well, given my theory for PNPs I am hopeful for 97,680 ITA (20% more than target) for this year. Ok maybe 95,000 trying not to be overly optimistic here.

 

[yg96]

Total ITA's issued so far = 67300
Expected ITA to atleast be equal to that of 2018 issued ITA levels = 89000

So, 89800-67300 = 21,700

If we take the further draws of 3900 size then it should be around 6 draws again remaining. This means 1 in October, 2 in november, 2 in december and remaining 1 surprise draw (B2B) in december which may just surpass the target levels of 2019.

Just guesstimating. :-D

here's a thing now the liberals and NDP are in command they wont be focusing that much on (xxxx)ITAs target rather will focus more on Canadians even if they miss out their target not a big deal for them as they are good for next 5 years and CIC is least concerned about achieving their target as they are trying to make more money by introducing new programs and giving the low score candidate a chance to immigrate and thus making more money (OINP, PNP from diff. provinces are goo examples) so they are focusing more on increasing their budget i dont think they will go for b2b i hope they go i really wish they do but low chances all the best for next draw i hope they increase the no. of ITAs and decrease the score happy diwali

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

here's a thing now the liberals and NDP are in command they wont be focusing that much on (xxxx)ITAs target rather will focus more on Canadians even if they miss out their target not a big deal for them as they are good for next 5 years and CIC is least concerned about achieving their target as they are trying to make more money by introducing new programs and giving the low score candidate a chance to immigrate and thus making more money (OINP, PNP from diff. provinces are goo examples) so they are focusing more on increasing their budget i dont think they will go for b2b i hope they go i really wish they do but low chances all the best for next draw i hope they increase the no. of ITAs and decrease the score happy diwali

IRCC actions between October 30, 2019 to November 14, 2019 will make things clearer how rest of 2019 is going to Pan out. Lets stay positive

Meanwhile Happy Diwali to all my indian friends.

 

[Rkd@321]

here's a thing now the liberals and NDP are in command they wont be focusing that much on (xxxx)ITAs target rather will focus more on Canadians even if they miss out their target not a big deal for them as they are good for next 5 years and CIC is least concerned about achieving their target as they are trying to make more money by introducing new programs and giving the low score candidate a chance to immigrate and thus making more money (OINP, PNP from diff. provinces are goo examples) so they are focusing more on increasing their budget i dont think they will go for b2b i hope they go i really wish they do but low chances all the best for next draw i hope they increase the no. of ITAs and decrease the score happy diwali

PNP's alone cannot achieve half of the immigration target levels. Morover the government cannot just skip their target as this is a proposal made by the goverment itself and if not executed will be one of the leading back fire even for the next election. So I dont think that is going to happen eventhough they will be giving more importance to PNP's for sure.

 

[Brain_Drain]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 25, 2019 11:15 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 42): | parry26: 1060 | thatguy1: 1054 | veritas1994: 1049 | yemjim: 1045 | LouiseV36: 1040 | Mir Mohideen: 481 | neo29j: 479 | Thmsrhn: 479 | praspirantak: 479 | Ajays94: 478 | Dingusitis: 476 | gabriel900: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Dr Seun: 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 80) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 62) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

Count me in at 475. But my application will probably be rejected as one of my employer has refused to give me a reference letter.

 

[bambisp]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 25, 2019 11:15 am UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 42): | parry26: 1060 | thatguy1: 1054 | veritas1994: 1049 | yemjim: 1045 | LouiseV36: 1040 | Mir Mohideen: 481 | neo29j: 479 | Thmsrhn: 479 | praspirantak: 479 | Ajays94: 478 | Dingusitis: 476 | gabriel900: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Dr Seun: 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 80) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 62) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

add me 461

 

[bambisp]

Count me in at 475. But my application will probably be rejected as one of my employer has refused to give me a reference letter.

you can apparently get your former colleagues to vouch for you...that you actually used to work where you are claiming.

 

[Brain_Drain]

you can apparently get your former colleagues to vouch for you...that you actually used to work where you are claiming.

It was a small govt defence dept . Nobody is ready to sign. I literally begged them but nobody wanted to take the risk (responsibility). However, The refusal letter is on the organisation's letterhead stating that due to security concerns roles ad responsibilities cannot be mentioned. I, however have the joining letter, this refusal letter, my id card picture, pay stubs, relieving letter etc.

 

[bambisp]

It was a small govt defence dept . Nobody is ready to sign. I literally begged them but nobody wanted to take the risk (responsibility). However, The refusal letter is on the organisation's letterhead stating that due to security concerns roles ad responsibilities cannot be mentioned. I, however have the joining letter, this refusal letter, my id card picture, pay stubs, relieving letter etc.

no experience with that but i'd say attach everything (including the refusal letter) and include a letter of explanation/ self-declared proof of employment written by you outlining your specific duties/noc etc as required by ircc..

 

[Brain_Drain]

no experience with that but i'd say attach everything (including the refusal letter) and include a letter of explanation/ self-declared proof of employment written by you outlining your specific duties/noc etc as required by ircc..

Yeah , I will attach everything I have and then hope for the best . thanks

 

[dreamcanada0224]

add me 461

Add me at 1055