Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[EricD]

I'm new here and new to this as I entered the pool 2 weeks ago .. my score is 475, I know its above average but I am very worried it will jump higher than it due to the Federal Skilled trade today! Do you guys think it is highly possible cut off score to be 475 or higher by next draw?

And personally I am hoping they will be another draw next Wed and we won't have to wait till the end of this month.

Good luck everyone ... blessings to all.

I don't think it will go that high, as my calculation assumes even distribution while in fact I think should be a "pyramid" distribution. So your 475 is 90% safe, while my score of 471 is really on the fence now
After all, for anyone with 465-471 (including me), pray for a draw next week. For 471+, pray for no adverse change in EE policy after the election (I think any change is not quite possible at least until 2020), and nothing else should be worried about.

 

[Harsh1992]

After seeing the pool distribution, the good news is the flow of PNP slowed down a bit compared to the previous interval. My calculation is that the next cut-off will be:
465 (if next draw is Oct 23)
470 (if next draw is Oct 30)
All numbers above are based on 3900 ITA per draw, and equal distribution of newly added profiles between 450s/460s/470-600 intervals
My detailed calculation:
https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AIZPsbVDi3g_DPw&cid=8E69E61DB486B3E2&id=8E69E61DB486B3E2!5713&parId=8E69E61DB486B3E2!2622&action=locate

Any hope for 461?? Shall I book ielts on 26th October to boost my score?? Totally confused

 

[journey21]

yes u should

 

[WarHammer]

On a rough calculation there were 280+ profiles of 451-600 entering the pool everyday in the past fortnight and as I remembered it has been this way for a couple of months. So every fortnight there are 4000+ new profiles with 451-600 score, plus PNPs (fluctuated figures), but only 3600-3900 will be taken out. I guess this means anything under 451 is completely hopeless unless the inflow starts to go down. So currently 440s must fight another way out such as PNPs, spouse not accompanying, etc.... Wish we have more detailed pool distribution data such as 451-460, 461-470 and so on.

In flow is going to increase in an unprecedented fashion. Literally 50% of H1B in the US, plenty of well settled folks in India, Europe are beginning to apply for PR as a back-up option.

Two year ago not many knew about express entry but now everyone does. Canada is too good in the move-in flexibility it offers after getting PR. No requirement to move immediately. This is too good an offer for people to not apply as back-up. This is what is hurting people who might not have high score but willing to move immediately.

 

[shinoshino]

I doubt the score would be going down if the federal election end...My score is 440 and I am trying to boost it up to 460. But now 460 is far from enough.Wanna to give up

 

[gabriel900]

I don't think it will go that high, as my calculation assumes even distribution while in fact I think should be a "pyramid" distribution. So your 475 is 90% safe, while my score of 471 is really on the fence now

Lol no one is safe at this point, but why aren't we worried it will jump astronomically if the next draw was in 30 October? I've read that it jumped 20 points in May when this similar situation happened, from 450 to 470! and last draw we had, score was 464! So why are we assuming it will be around 470? and not way higher?

 

[EricD]

Any hope for 461?? Shall I book ielts on 26th October to boost my score?? Totally confused

even if a draw happens now, I would say the score might be 463. So just go for ielts without any hesitation, any effort is worthwhile

 

[RameshKum]

Experts, my IELTS score is expiring in a week, is my profile still valid and eligible for future draws?

 

[EricD]

Lol no one is safe at this point, but why aren't we worried it will jump astronomically if the next draw was in 30 October? I've read that it jumped 20 points in May when this similar situation happened, from 450 to 470! and last draw we had, score was 464! So why are we assuming it will be around 470? and not way higher?

Yes that's the worrisome case. But 470+ is already a good score. Ppl who are 31+ yrs old can only get 470 at most if one doesn't have Canadian exp or degree... With 3+ work exp after a masters degree, one is usually 27+ years old, the "prime age interval" is 27-29, which is quite a short span.

 

[Angel1113]

Experts, my IELTS score is expiring in a week, is my profile still valid and eligible for future draws?

No your IELTS must be valid until you apply for PR after getting ITA. If you are the main applicant and your ielts expires you will no longer be eligible for express entry as valid language score is one of the minimum criteria to create a valid profile.

 

[rajapanesar]

Experts, my IELTS score is expiring in a week, is my profile still valid and eligible for future draws?

For a week, yes. Further, no.

 

[RameshKum]

No your IELTS must be valid until you apply for PR after getting ITA. If you are the main applicant and your ielts expires you will no longer be eligible for express entry as valid language score is one of the minimum criteria to create a valid profile.

Thanks.. this is terrible now I've OINP nomination and if my profile is ineligbile. I'm taking IELTS test again on 26th of this month. Not sure, how to deal with OINP nomination now.

 

[RameshKum]

Thanks, I hope for another draw for FSW before its goes away

 

[Iniwuraoniso]

there will be another draw today

 

[WunderCat]

there will be another draw today

Source?