Ray of Hope - 127th Draw

[Fteodosio]

give it 24 hrs but it will be updated before that sure thing

Thanks for the quick answer,

Even if my profile status says Submitted, it will change the Overall Score afterwards?

Thanks

 

[Ajib]

No mind am, star member wey dey ask ridiculous question. Him maale join the waka

 

[yg96]

Thanks for the quick answer,

Even if my profile status says Submitted, it will change the Overall Score afterwards?

Thanks

yeahhh

 

[Dheana90]

My work experience matches NOC 2173. On canada website it is mentioned:

Employment requirements

• A bachelor's degree, usually in computer science, computer systems engineering, software engineering or mathematics or completion of a college program in computer science is usually required.
• A master's or doctoral degree in a related discipline may be required.
• Licensing by a provincial or territorial association of professional engineers is required to approve engineering drawings and reports and to practise as a Professional Engineer (P.Eng.).
• Engineers are eligible for registration following graduation from an accredited educational program, three or four years of supervised work experience in engineering, and passing a professional practice examination.
• Experience as a computer programmer is usually required.

If I submit my profile under 2173, do I need some kind of license? And pass a professional practice exam?

Hi dear,

Those requirements are needed for employment purpose once you are in Canada looking for job in that NOC. For EE profile submission, you only need work experience letter to prove that you performed those duties on the NOC chosen.

 

[Tousif_27]

@Dheana90 : What are your calculations and CRS predictions for the upcoming draw?

 

[Naxwell]

My wish is for CRS to be >= 480.

Unfortunately you are just a random, unknown, unrecognised little dreamer.

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90 : What are your calculations and CRS predictions for the upcoming draw?

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/13= 350profile per score.


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 13, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=420
451-600=8,202
441-450=8,585

It means in 9 days from Sep 4th to Sep 13th, there where:
601-1,200 = 47 profile/day (420/9days)

451-600 = 404 prof/day (8,202-4,561 = 3,641/9days)

441-450 = 12prof/day(8,585-8,476= 109/9days)


So, by 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 655 (420 + 235(47x 5days))
451-600=10,222 (8,202+2,020(404x5days))
441-450= 8,645 (8,585+60(12x5days))

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645

Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 7,277 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only. Let's assume that 7,277 are distributed equally to 451-462 score range. Thus, it makes 7,277/12= 606profile per score.

As per our internal CRS score tracker managed by @Angel1113 ,it is clear that since 18th September draw the influx of candidated entering the pool in the score range of 451-600 is slowing down. Therefore I will reduce the estimate of 404 to 202/day as 404 will be too high.

So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 658 (47x 14days))
451-600=10,105(7,277+2,828(202x14days))
441-450= 8,813 (8,645+168(12x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,828 profile from 18th Sep to 2nd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 480 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,828/30=94profile/score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461
3,600 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-94 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 479 newly added score)
-94 (of 478 newly added score)
-94 (of 477 newly added score)
-94 (of 476 newly added score)
-94 (of 475 newly added score)
-94 (of 474 newly added score)
-94 (of 473 newly added score)
-94 (of 472 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-94 (of 462 newly added score)
-606 (of 462 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 461 newly added score)
-456 (of 606 of 461 left after 18 sep draw)

If CIC will issue 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-94 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 479 newly added score)
-94 (of 478 newly added score)
-94 (of 477 newly added score)
-94 (of 476 newly added score)
-94 (of 475 newly added score)
-94 (of 474 newly added score)
-94 (of 473 newly added score)
-94 (of 472 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-94 (of 462 newly added score)
-606 (of 462 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 461 newly added score)
-606 (of 461 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 460 newly added score)
-56 (of 606 of 460 left after 18 sep draw)

 

[VKA]

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/13= 350profile per score.


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 13, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=420
451-600=8,202
441-450=8,585

It means in 9 days from Sep 4th to Sep 13th, there where:
601-1,200 = 47 profile/day (420/9days)

451-600 = 404 prof/day (8,202-4,561 = 3,641/9days)

441-450 = 12prof/day(8,585-8,476= 109/9days)


So, by 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 655 (420 + 235(47x 5days))
451-600=10,222 (8,202+2,020(404x5days))
441-450= 8,645 (8,585+60(12x5days))

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645

Note: As cut off was 462, it means that the 7,277 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-462 only. Let's assume that 7,277 are distributed equally to 451-462 score range. Thus, it makes 7,277/12= 606profile per score.

As per our internal CRS score tracker managed by @Angel1113 ,it is clear that since 18th September draw the influx of candidated entering the pool in the score range of 451-600 is slowing down. Therefore I will reduce the estimate of 404 to 202/day as 404 will be too high.

So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 658 (47x 14days))
451-600=10,105(7,277+2,828(202x14days))
441-450= 8,813 (8,645+168(12x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,828 profile from 18th Sep to 2nd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 480 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,828/30=94profile/score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461
3,600 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-94 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 479 newly added score)
-94 (of 478 newly added score)
-94 (of 477 newly added score)
-94 (of 476 newly added score)
-94 (of 475 newly added score)
-94 (of 474 newly added score)
-94 (of 473 newly added score)
-94 (of 472 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-94 (of 462 newly added score)
-606 (of 462 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 461 newly added score)
-456 (of 606 of 461 left after 18 sep draw)

If CIC will issue 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-94 (of 480-600 newly added score)
-94 (of 479 newly added score)
-94 (of 478 newly added score)
-94 (of 477 newly added score)
-94 (of 476 newly added score)
-94 (of 475 newly added score)
-94 (of 474 newly added score)
-94 (of 473 newly added score)
-94 (of 472 newly added score)
-94 (of 471 newly added score)
-94 (of 470 newly added score)
-94 (of 469 newly added score)
-94 (of 468 newly added score)
-94 (of 467 newly added score)
-94 (of 466 newly added score)
-94 (of 465 newly added score)
-94 (of 464 newly added score)
-94 (of 463 newly added score)
-94 (of 462 newly added score)
-606 (of 462 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 461 newly added score)
-606 (of 461 left after 18 sep draw)
-94 (of 460 newly added score)
-56 (of 606 of 460 left after 18 sep draw)

Thank you for such a detailed description, quite a meticulous observation, however complicated. Besides this, as per your understanding, how soon do you expect 456 to be caught in the cut off. I am currently stuck at this score.
Many thanks

 

[hypervariate123]

Thank you for such a detailed description, quite a meticulous observation, however complicated. Besides this, as per your understanding, how soon do you expect 456 to be caught in the cut off. I am currently stuck at this score.
Many thanks

I am not sure about the very next draw. And I know that an FST draw also happens around this time, and then when the FSW draw happens, scores jump a bit.

I would say maybe the end of the year/early next year maybe.

Do you have any other ways of improving your score?

 

[VKA]

I am not sure about the very next draw. And I know that an FST draw also happens around this time, and then when the FSW draw happens, scores jump a bit.

I would say maybe the end of the year/early next year maybe.

Do you have any other ways of improving your score?

Thanks for replying. I don’t have any problem in waiting though. Regarding my score, I scored L-9;R-9;W-7;S-7.5, and my education is equivalent to graduation in Canada. Moreover, I don’t think I may score better than this or increase my score in any way. Indeed, I believe sooner or later I might stand a chance for ITA if not immediately .

 

[Dheana90]

Thank you for such a detailed description, quite a meticulous observation, however complicated. Besides this, as per your understanding, how soon do you expect 456 to be caught in the cut off. I am currently stuck at this score.
Many thanks

Thank you, dear..

In my opinion, I think the score will come down to 456 by the end of the year. There are still a lot of PNP nominations approval to be expected as well as the FST draw that usually happens around this time so the score should come down slowly and steadily.

 

[VKA]

Thank you, dear..

In my opinion, I think the score will come down to 456 by the end of the year. There are still a lot of PNP nominations approval to be expected as well as the FST draw that udually happens around this time so the score should come down slowly and steadily.

Cheers @Dheana90

 

[hypervariate123]

Thanks for replying. I don’t have any problem in waiting though. Regarding my score, I scored L-9;R-9;W-7;S-7.5, and my education is equivalent to graduation in Canada. Moreover, I don’t think I may score better than this or increase my score in any way. Indeed, I believe sooner or later I might stand a chance for ITA if not immediately .

Oh yeah absolutely.

While it's awesome to wait and have hope, it's also a good idea to look into ways to improve your score. Just in case
In my experience with immigration (been stuck in this process for months now) - it's always good to have a back up plan.

 

[TD0911]

Thank you, dear..

In my opinion, I think the score will come down to 456 by the end of the year. There are still a lot of PNP nominations approval to be expected as well as the FST draw that udually happens around this time so the score should come down slowly and steadily.

What about 454? Any chance in the foreseeable future?

 

[smash1984]

What about 454? Any chance in the foreseeable future?

I hate to sound pessimistic but 454 is looking harder and harder (i myself was a beneficiary with 451 score but i applied last year).

I would also recommend if you can somehow increase your points then go for it. I have been following CRS scores for about 1.5+ years now and they just seem to move up generally. I think in 2017 even people with 417 were getting in, by late 2018 the min cut off had jumped up to 440. Now its around 460. There also seem to be 8000+ people in the 451+ band. That's a lot of people and more people continue to pile into the pool. With other western countries slowing intake of immigrants this pool will only get bigger.

So i would recommend taking advantage of any possible options you may have of increasing your score