Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

[vsfedotov]

It’s actually very straightforward. Just get an apostle, translation and your diploma shipped to wes.
I didn’t use MBA for EE because our “Specialist” degree is equal to Canadian Master’s

Good for you! I didn't know that trick back then - but honestly I didn't explore EE much until this spring. By the way, I see you have landed, so congratulations! Best of luck in Canada.
Hope to join you... I want to say 'soon', but it is more realistic to say 'one day'.

 

[vsfedotov]

Hey! Just received my ITA. So impatient that started filling the application already.
One question - when and where do I get the personalized document checklist? Does it appear only when I fill all the forms?

 

[Indian dentist1]

Can someone please help me?? I am at 456 since July. If I change it to non-accompaning spouse my score will be 469. Is this possible if I get the ita without spouse and then apply for his pr after getting mine? He still got 2 years on his work permit. Please help

 

[blessedveev]

This is truly sad.. I have a bad feeling these CRS draws are being orchestrated. The free jump is unbelievable.
I’ve done all I can to improve my scores except French (I’m not going to learn a language under duress) My work experience can only be 3 years in 1.5 years then CRS will move from 456 to 481. Maybe I’ll start looking at the UK options for my profession.. Such a sad day

 

[ContactFront]

Can someone please help me?? I am at 456 since July. If I change it to non-accompaning spouse my score will be 469. Is this possible if I get the ita without spouse and then apply for his pr after getting mine? He still got 2 years on his work permit. Please help

If you've exhausted other means to boost your score, yes definitely consider changing it to non accompanying.
You can sponsor him once you become a PR. And if the sponsorship application can be filed inland, he can apply for a new work permit

 

[ContactFront]

Hey! Just received my ITA. So impatient that started filling the application already.
One question - when and where do I get the personalized document checklist? Does it appear only when I fill all the forms?

Yes after all the forms

 

[ginger_power]

Hello, I’m really grateful to this forum.
I’m just wondering if I have changed my name long time ago, should I submit the police certificate under the previous name as well? (I’m not sure if the government issue the old name’s certification.)

 

[BLACKPILL]

I was in this forum with another user name since 420 eras (I witnessed the 413 too)

It was exactly like these people now .....42x people are hoping when it was 43x, 43x people are hoping when it was 44x

Unfortunately, the score never came down again and I am not sure where were these people nowadays. I am here to remind the 45x people, CIC is a bullet train that keep moving forward, it may slow down to pick up some of you but it will never go backward.

I disagree with some of your views, but definitely the cutoff is going higher slowly, every year it jumps by 10 points especially now the EE system is stabilized. Assuming Conservatives will cut the ITAs or keep it the same, the competition is only going to be higher. It could be even 480-490! Thankfully I have a backup plan and I can for sure get ITA next October. I will reach 470 next year with my current Canadian job but it may not be a safe mark next year. So everyone should consider other means.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

I disagree with some of your views, but definitely the cutoff is going higher slowly, every year it jumps by 10 points especially now the EE system is stabilized. Assuming Conservatives will cut the ITAs or keep it the same, the competition is only going to be higher. It could be even 480-490! Thankfully I have a backup plan and I can for sure get ITA next October. I will reach 470 next year with my current Canadian job but it may not be a safe mark next year. So everyone should consider other means.

Agreed. And this is my only worry.
I would be completing three years of foreign work next year. That would take me to 481. I hope it holds good by then.
Wish the same for you.
Hold strong. Good luck!

 

[Dheana90]

Please share predictions for next draw. Need some hope for my aching heart.
[@Dheana90

May I please dare to ask what could be next prediction with approved/remaining PNPs and remaining target for 2019.

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/20=104profile/score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462score newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 461score newly added)
-380 (of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 460score newly added)
-272(of 380 in 459score left on 4th Sep)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462score newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104(of 104 of 461score newly added)
-380(of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104(of 104 of 460score newly added)
-380(of 380 in 459score left on 4th Sep)
-104 (of 104 of 459score newly added)
-88(of 380 in 458score left on 4th Sep)

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of August 30, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 =395
451-600 =6,826
441-450 =8,381

It means in 10 days from Aug 20 to Aug 30, there where:
601-1,200 = 40 profile/day (395/10days)

451-600 = 148 prof/day (6,826-5345 = 1,481/10days)

441-450 = 19prof/day(8,381-8,189= 192/10days)


So, by 4th September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 595(395+ 200(40x 5days)
451-600 =7,566(6,826+740(148x5days))
441-450= 8,476(8,381+95(19x5days))

After 4th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 463, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -595)
451-600 =4,561(7,566-3005)
441-450= 8,476

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 4,561 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only. Let's assume that 4,561 are distributed equally to 451-463 score range. Thus, it makes 4,561/12= 380 profile per score.

By 18th September, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200 = 560 (40x 14days)
451-600 =6,623 (4,561+2,072(148x14days))
441-450= 8,742 (8,476+266(19x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,072 profile from 4th Sep -18th Sep, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471 to 600). Thus,it will make 2,072/20=104profile/score.


So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 459-460
3,600 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462score newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 461score newly added)
-380 (of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 460score newly added)
-272 (of 380 in 459score left on 4th Sep)


with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 458-459.
3,900 minus:
-560(601-1200)
-104 (of 104 471-600 score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 470score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 469score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 468score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 467score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 466score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 465score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 464score newly added)
-104 (of 104 of 463score newly added)
-380 (of 463score left on 4th Sep draw)
-380 (of 462score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 462 newly added)
-380 (of 461score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 461 newly added)
-380 (of 460score left on 4th Sep draw)
-104 (of 104 of 460 newly added)
-380 (of 459score left on 4th Sep)
-104 (of 104 of 459 newly added)
-88 (of 380 of 458score left on 4th Sep)

Nice work there!

 

[Dheana90]

Nice work there!

Thank you,dear

 

[BLACKPILL]

Agreed. And this is my only worry.
I would be completing three years of foreign work next year. That would take me to 481. I hope it holds good by then.
Wish the same for you.
Hold strong. Good luck!

Yeah, I don’t think my 470 is even safe as of now. It only takes another FSW to bump the cutoff to 470s

 

[hamhk202]

Previous draw I missed ITA due to a tie-breaking and until today's draw I kept my hope that cutoff would be 457 or lesser and finally the result messed me up and the worth is I will lose 5 points due to age on September 11th .my last chance ruined

 

[Dheana90]

I suppose you can add Australia into that mix as well.. A lot of people in Australia are of the view that Canada's EE is more easier than Australia, me included. I suppose that is making EE uncomfortably competitive this year..

Welcome to the club,bro...

I was in Australia,too...waiting for ITA but my 485 visa already expired and feel like no hope for accountant.