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Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

_Harry_ said:
The 19.62% additional ITA were sent because of the number of rejection. We are assuming the same rejection percentage for this year which can or can not be true. Furthermore, here the profiles getting PNP are missed. Those folks will have CRS of 1000 or more and will be part of the same pool count. I think draw size of 4000 seems like more realistic figure here.
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19.62% is an assumption for sure, the best we can do is predict! I don't see how the PNP numbers affect this, though; can you post your reasoning behind 4000?
 
mayjuly said:
19.62% is an assumption for sure, the best we can do is predict! I don't see how the PNP numbers affect this, though; can you post your reasoning behind 4000?
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The folks applying for PNP eventually comes in the EE pool for final processing. For PNP candidate, CIC generates a RoI which usually holds < 1000 applicants. There are few such RoI a year for those profiles as well to keep the PNP applicants running along with regular EE. If we consider 5-6 such RoI in a year, then the EE profiles count will be reduced by 5-6k resulting total decrease of 250 candidates per RoI for normal EE assuming we have 2 RoI per month.
 
sriguru12 said:
I guess no validation would require if CIC levies a registration fee of 100$ to create an Express entry profile. Genuine people would not mind paying it and obvioulsy those fake idiots would not spen 100$ to create a fake profile.
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I was thinking same
 
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mayjuly said:
I'm feeling hopeful too; an increase in draw size or frequency is inevitable:

  • Target for 2018: 74900
  • Invites sent in 2018: 89600
  • % over target: 19.62%
  • Target for 2019: 81400
  • Predicted invites sent in 2019: 19.62% x 81400 = 97375
  • Invites already sent in 2019: 31750
  • Invites remaining to send in 2019: 65625
Assuming one more draw in May and two draws per month until the end of the year, let's say we have at least 15 draws remaining. The average draw size in this case needs to be 4375 for CIC to meet its target.
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CIC doesn't need to exceed the last year's surplus target? As long as they meet their set target

Furthermore, year end election may change their strategy ~ you know conservative like to do the opposite of Liberal so CIC would like to "conservative" on this too?

Just my 2 cent and speak the reality ~ and i wish you are right
 
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_Harry_ said:
The folks applying for PNP eventually comes in the EE pool for final processing. For PNP candidate, CIC generates a RoI which usually holds < 1000 applicants. There are few such RoI a year for those profiles as well to keep the PNP applicants running along with regular EE. If we consider 5-6 such RoI in a year, then the EE profiles count will be reduced by 5-6k resulting total decrease of 250 candidates per RoI for normal EE assuming we have 2 RoI per month.
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Are you talking about the PNP-specific draws?
 
a16107 said:
CIC doesn't need to exceed the last year's surplus target? As long as they meet their set target

Furthermore, year end election may change their strategy ~ you know conservative like to do the opposite of Liberal so CIC would like to "conservative" on this too?

Just my 2 cent and speak the reality ~ and i wish you are right
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Of course, CIC may not go over their set target at all, but the fact that the surplus was ~20% last year gives me hope for this year!
2017 was similar as well: the target was 71700 but 86023 ITAs were sent out, which is a 19.97% increase.
 
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hakweye said:
Worrying signs... let’s hope for the best
If they have 4 week gap draw they should increase the ITA to 3900 , otherwise scores won’t drop
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So is it safe to say that 29th will be the next draw since there are no maintenance posts on CIC?
 
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