Hello Guys,
I know there's a lot going on due to this four weeks gap. There are lots of other people facing work experience count issues and lots more and more.
There are even people who are always ready to help, always comes with positive feelings, hopes and much more, so honestly and heartily thanks to all of them.
Am not that expert in analysis, there are other great experts here at analysis and prediction for CRS cutoff, most of them with totally high prediction may be 460+, others with positive vibes for CRS between 455 to 460, and may be 450 to 455 with increased ITA and I totally respect them.
However, I just want to say one thing, that though there's a huge gap, that doesn't meant that the draw needs to be above 460 always.
If you see CIC applicants distribution till 10th May 2019, It is something as below:
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
401-450 35,654
441-450 5,360
Specifically, the higher range from
451 to 600.
It says 1668, but this is between 451 to 600
It doesn't say how may are there between
451 to 455
455 to 460
460 to 465
And so on
There are almost more applicants between 451 to 454
It is really hard to get above 454.
If we even see above 455 and below 600 even here in this forum, there may be hardly 150 in total, so it's really tough to go above 460+.
It can go, am not say, it is impossible, it can even, but still, I believe, it's a bit tough.
Coming to applicants above 600, it's always going to be PNP people, and one of the members in this thread somewhere explained that if province invites applicants for PNP, it's not like they get 600 points on the same day, that takes time, so though recently lots of province invited applicants for nomination, but to get those nomination, will still take time, so applicants above 600 will also be less.
Now coming to people getting added to pool everyday with score 450+ on an average from lots of reply in this thread is found to be 225, and that is from previous analysis of applicants published by CIC after draw, for the date few days before the draw, agreed, but 450+ doesn't always meant, it's always between 455 to 460, or even more than that, it can even be between 450 to 454, as it's really hard to go above that, as explained earlier.
Now coming to draws with gap and CRS rise,
#110 – January 30, 2019
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 438
Number of invitations issued: 3,350
=== HERE'S THE GAP==20DAYS
#111 – February 20, 2019
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 458
Number of invitations issued: 3,350
And draws after that
#112 – March 6, 2019
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 454
Number of invitations issued: 3,350
#113 – March 20, 2019
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 452
Number of invitations issued: 3,350
#114 – April 3, 2019
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 451
Number of invitations issued: 3,350
So
Now, there was a gap of 20 days from draw 110 to 111, and CRS raised from 438 to 457.
The only reason was, after draw the lowest score in pool was 438, which means there weren't any applicants above 438 till the draw happened, that was reason the cutoff was 438.
Now in this gap from draw 110 to 111, applicants above 450 got added and that too more, so it raised to 457 only despite of 20days gap.
I meant to say that it raised just because less applicants with CRS 450 or above were not invited in draw 110, as there were none.
And now when you see draw 112, it directly reduces from 457 to 454, with 3350 applicants invited, which means total applicants between 454 to 457 were just 3350. That means there are less people in this range or even above this till draw 112.
Coming to next draw 113, where cut off is even less, that is 452, that is it is even two points down with regular ITAs that is 3350, which meant that the number of people more than 452 were only 3350 till this draw 113, so in next draw again these applicants are out from pool.
So, in next draw, it reduces to 451 and eventually to 450.
So, I meant to say that, it's the number of people at particular CRS score being invited before the GAP makes the difference more than that of a GAP.
That is, before draw 110, applicants above 438 were already invited to the pool and were out of pool, but in this gap from draw 110 to 111, Its new applicants out of that range, that is above 438 got in pool, and despite of 20days gap, it just reached to 457, with 438 being lowest before the gap.
So, on 1st May, 2019, draw 116, 3350 applicants being invited with 450 score are already out of pool, so now there are less people with 450+ in pool with 10th May 2019 data is 1985(1668+317)
Out of which we only know about 317 CRS for sure that they are above 600, but still we are not sure about those 1668 ranging from 451 to 600,
They can be between 451 to 452, or may be more than that, but still we are not sure. And as explained earlier, it is really tough to go above 454.
So, doesn't matter how many applicants get added above 450+ every day, what matters is maximum CRS score for such applicants, it can be even 451, 452, and so on, and may be less than 455 or more than that too, but till the time we are not sure, it really tough to predict.
But as it's tough to score above 454 for most of us, most of the applicants above 450+ shall be between 450 to 454, that's the reason for points going down quickly from 457 to 454, and slowly from 452 to 450, as there are less applicantd above 454 and more below 452.
So, it's really tough to predict what shall be the next cutoff, but it shall be between 455 to 458.
Don't know about ITA
Don't know about draw date.
Don't even know that it will be definitely between 455 to 458 only, it can be even more or hardly may be less if more ITA issued.
I just analysed this whole thread, previous rounds, applicants in last few rounds as I save PDF of the whole page containing table for number of applicants present in pool after every draw shown on CIC website, compared them.
I just want to say that, I believe CRS will gradually decrease to 450 and even less if regular draws come, so people with CRS 450 or even less, don't loose hope, there's something planned by GOD for everyone, we just have to believe in GOD, we just have to be hopeful, positive and have to have patience, believe me, everything will work out, will just have to wait for perfect time.
A small contribution to plethora of positive vibes already available here