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Ray of Hope - 115th Draw

13nitinsharma

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
kalex123 said:
there are 2 ielts results released in past 2 weeks do u still think
450??
Click to expand...
There is only one test result which will be factored in today's draw (March 23rd). See notes below:

March 23rd - General Training : Result Date - April 5th
March 30th - Academic : Result Date - April 12th (No Effect because of Academic module)
 
K

kadeed

Member
Sep 26, 2016
19
8
13nitinsharma said:
435-440 (Total 12) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438 | kadeed:436 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440
Click to expand...
Hi Kindly update my score i am now @ 444
do you think there is a chance for 444 to get ITA before mid of October because I will drop some points at that time due to my Birthday ?
 
Mr_Chang

Mr_Chang

Star Member
Dec 14, 2018
185
124
Queenslander88 said:
THIS SEEMS LEGIT!!!!

Okay, this is just theory. But, I was very intrigued at understanding why are there times when there is a round of invitation within a week of the previous one and why is there a gap of upto 3 weeks at a time. The most obvious answer is that there is no specific reason and they just want to slow the intake to clear backlogs. But could there be another reason?

The more I look at it the more it feels like there's an inherent cut-off of around 440 points which CIC maintains by controlling the time between two draws.

So I took data for all draws starting November 8, 2017. I chose this date as this was the time when they started releasing draws with a fixed round figure of Invitations issued (like "2000") Prior to this there was a different method they used to determine the number of invitations to be issued, example 2,757 or 2,801 in the previous ones. After that it was just a matter of a simple scatter plot to see if there was a correlation between the number of days from the previous draw vs. cut-off of the previous draw.



The graph has cut-off score for the previous draw on the Y-Axis and number of days from the previous draw from the X-Axis, From this, you can't really draw a conclusion but if you look closely, it kind of shows that there has never been a single time whenever the previous cut-off was greater than 447 that the draw took more than 2 weeks.

Also the 4 times the score actually went below 440, all 4 times CIC made the next draw after atleast 21 days. This gives time for the pool to fill up and the cut-offs to go up again.

Maybe I'm just seeing this because this theory came to my head. With only 33 data points it is hard to tell what's fact and what's coincidence.

Mr_Chang
Click to expand...
And I thought nobody ever read this. That post literally disappeared into oblivion.

The CRS glass ceiling people. https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/the-crs-glass-ceiling-has-ircc-already-decided-a-minimum-cutoff.614180/ :D
 
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13nitinsharma

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
kadeed said:
Hi Kindly update my score i am now @ 444
do you think there is a chance for 444 to get ITA before mid of October because I will drop some points at that time due to my Birthday ?
Click to expand...
Good to see your score upgraded from 436 to 444, Congrats!!

Yes, you'll definitely get your ITA after 3 or 4 draws. Your birthday is in October, so don't worry about it at all. Good luck!!
 
13nitinsharma

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
(Updated till 11:05 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:
  • 460+ (Total 3) - kan7sh: 472 | Wizzz: 472 | aurelero:473
  • 455-460 (Total 1) - Rangrez: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 20) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | | SeniorStakes: 451 | Sanghapreet: 451 | Yiss: 450 | T80: 451 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | Ruth31:451 | siataheri:450 | biquanbi96: 451 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | Karran Oberoi: 451 | pujo: 451 | hunt4dj: 452 | AlejandroMP: 451 | parvin2019: 450 | jugal123: 451
  • 445-449 (Total 33) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | skg1988: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:449 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | veritas1994: 449 | frightenedpanda: 445 | patel_d07: 448 | Noopur_23: 447 | dawak: 445 | dappy9: 449 | itsram: 448 | Ravi_15: 447 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Manru:449 | msgill88:445 | SASH8288: 446 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | v_nitesh_k: 449 | Sreedev83: 446 | Tivativalu: 448 | Queenslander88: 445 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | MynameisMTS: 446
  • 441-444 (Total 21) - NikSharma01:444 | ghvijay: 443 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | Kiamin: 442 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | intels: 441 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | | kadeed:444
  • 435-440 (Total 11) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | krishnapahlajani93:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440
  • Below 435 (Total 4) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431 | Sdabas: 421 | AND IND: 423
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

So, Our "GOOD WEDNESDAY" has come FINALLY!!

I wish everyone GOOD LUCK and hope most of US get through today with 3900 ITA instead of 3350!!!
 
Last edited:
SeniorStakes

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
729
409
Toronto
Mr_Chang said:
If I were to predict.

3,350 ITAs. CRS cutoff 451

But all the best. I hope I am wrong and CRS cutoff goes lower.
Click to expand...
If it were to stay 451, 451+ application inflow must increase from 223 per day (observed last time) to between 225 per day and 245 per day.

Below 225, the cut-off will be 450.
Above 246, the cut-off will be 452.

This is assuming 3350 ITAs.

The cut-off will touch 449 only if the 451+ application inflow decreases below 195 per day, which is very unlikely.

Therefore, in all likelihood, it is most probable for the cut-off to be 450, followed by 451 and then 452.

Order of probability-

450 > 451 > 452 > 449

If it's 450, the cut-off date is expected to be around Jan or Feb 2019.
 
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Shishir Chandra Kumar

Shishir Chandra Kumar

Hero Member
Jan 9, 2019
275
226
Pune, India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
26-09-2019
Nomination.....
17-09-2019
AOR Received.
26-09-2019
IELTS Request
24/11/2018
Med's Done....
26-09-2019
Maalee said:
Hii all... I ve been following this tread but never posted anything until now.. It s great to see such positivity and gives me hope...
I'm at 441 ..waiting until my stars shine on me..
Click to expand...
I'm also on the same boat. We will definitely get thru. All the best !!!
When did you enter the pool?
 
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