It all depends on the inflow of applications from 1 Mar to 20 Mar.
Earlier, between 14 Feb to 28 Feb, the speed of 450+ applications was 183 per day, which was 41 units lower than 224 per day observed in the previous fortnight.
Between 01 Mar and 20 Mar, if the speed is 206 or lower, the CRS cut-off will just touch 450. If it is between 206 and 220, the CRS cut-off will be 451. If it is more than 220, it would be 452 or more. On the opposite end, if the speed of applications goes down to 180, which is not unlikely (given it was 183 in last two weeks of Feb), the CRS cut-off will just touch 448.
Therefore, even if we see the high inflow we observed in the first two weeks of Feb, the CRS cut-off should be max 452.
If there is a draw today with 3350 ITAs, the likelihood of CRS cut-off being 451/452 is the highest, followed by it being 450. Even though the speed went down to 183 per day towards the end of Feb, there are indications (high 454 cut-off on 6 Mar) that it increased again the first week of March.
To summarize, the best bet is 451 or 452, followed by it being 450.
The probability order -
451 > 452 > 450
All the best everyone!!