Ray of Hope - 113th Draw

[LKRYA]

With the current speed, they are all set to 89,500 ITAs which is 400 less than the number they issued last year.

Now, the increase in target from 2018 to 2019 is 81,400 - 74,900 i.e. 6,500. At the same time, expect fewer ITA withdrawals or cancelations as applicants have become more knowledgeable...giving additional deficit of around 3000.

Excess capacity = 400 + 6500 - 3000 = 3900

In summary, they can either increase intake by 150 per draw or have just one more one-week draw at the end of the year. The current configuration of the draws is absolutely okay to meet the target.

To conclude, please don't expect miracles this year. In 2017, application pool was smaller and intake increased abdruptly. This is 2019 and this year, draw frequency and intake - both would remain as it is.

Lastly, Even with the same intake and frequency, CRS cut-off can touch 440 in a few months, so stay hopeful. The application inflow in Feb could have made CRS touch 443-445 had there been no backlog / three-week draw. Guys in 440s just need to be little patient, but it's futile to hope for miracles in the draw configuration.

very good observation. We can keep our hopes live.

 

[SeniorStakes]

In fact, it is extremely easy to prove that if CIC had not done this three-week Carnage, and had instead done draws on 13 Feb and 27 Feb, the cut off would have been 445 only.

Total 440+ applicants on 28 Feb = 4630. Including those who got ITA, the number becomes 7980. Discounting by 260 to make it until 27 Feb makes it 7720.

With 6700 ITAs on 13 Feb and 27 Feb combined, shortfall for 440+ = Exactly 1000

Number of applications between 441 - 450 on 27 Feb = 2000

Thus, the CRS cut-off should have been exactly 445.

It can be construed that the current rate of applications is synchronous to CRS being 445. It can go slightly down too as the WES backlog impact fades away.

 

[keyur sharma]

Why would it be 453 and not less ? I mean only 1 point reduction from last draw ( 112th draw ) {... since the Tie-breaking rule: February 11, 2019 at 17:21:27 UTC for 454 }

Already 2050 people are above 441 on 28th feb and 2327 above 450. Last draw was 454 so what I believe out of those 2327 may be 1200 got invitation so around 1127 left those are in between 451-454. So now average 500 people added every week above 450. So 2 weeks. 1000 more so total 2200 people around. There will be people who gave ielts or they got nominees and they will bump up their points plus some will finish one more year with there experience so those all things will affect Cut off.

And computer based ielts is major factor for high cutoff.

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

Already 2050 people are above 441 on 28th feb and 2327 above 450. Last draw was 454 so what I believe out of those 2327 may be 1200 got invitation so around 1127 left those are in between 451-454. So now average 500 people added every week above 450. So 2 weeks. 1000 more so total 2200 people around. There will be people who gave ielts or they got nominees and they will bump up their points plus some will finish one more year with there experience so those all things will affect Cut off.

And computer based ielts is major factor for high cutoff.

You mean 500 people on an average above 450 are added per week . This seems to be very high and I totally disagree with this logic .

I feel on an average 200-300 people above 450 are added per week .

 

[SeniorStakes]

You mean 500 people on an average above 450 are added per week . This seems to be very high and I totally disagree with this logic .

I feel on an average 200-300 people above 450 are added per week .

Guys, let's be accurate. It is 204 per day in the month of Feb. Last year, it was around 160 per day.

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

Guys, let's be accurate. It is 204 per day in the month of Feb. Last year, it was around 160 per day.

Yep, I think in the same line ......I feel on an average 200+ people above 450 are added per week . Therefore there is highly chance of 3 or 4 points reduction compared to the previous draw with the existing set of profiles(450+) created from Jan 30 onwards.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Yep, I think in the same line ......I feel on an average 200+ people above 450 are added per week . Therefore there is highly chance of 3 or 4 points reduction compared to the previous draw with the existing set of profiles(450+) created from Jan 30 onwards.

It is per day, not per week.

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

It is per day, not per week.

You mean 200 profiles with 450+ added per day

200*2 weeks = 200* 14= 2800 profiles with 450 + per 2 weeks ?

 

[SeniorStakes]

You mean 200 profiles with 450+ added per day

200*2 weeks = 200* 14= 2800 profiles with 450 + per 2 weeks ?

Yes

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

Yes

Then what is the expected CRS score for March 20th

 

[SeniorStakes]

Then what is the expected CRS score for March 20th

450 or 451

 

[Satyanarayana Arnepalli]

450 or 451

ok. Make sense,..

 

[ravipatel_it]

Haha

I also get NOI from Alberta. What Is your noc mine is 1311. What to do next

 

[Newbie_0922]

Is it possible to have two express entry profiles where in one i am the primary applicant and in the other my wife is the primary applicant?

 

[NikSharma01]

Thank you for your answer .. will let her know

Yes, Masters only will fetch you more CRS points comparatively. However, if you want to build a career in the field of LAW in Canada and want to show your respective qualifications as well, then "Two or more degrees option" is preferable!!
(it may cost you around -7 points.)