Ray of Hope 111th draw

[EricD]

I don't know who you are If that happens I make sure I will find you and give u a treat if that really happens. My score is at 436. Looking for a God wonder

Wow keep that promise my dear friend! If they just want to reduce backlog, I would say it’s not bad to wait cause they will have to either increase the pace of draws or number of ITA per draw to make up for previous long gaps between draws
Remember: whatever the pace is, if the rate of inflow into the EE pool is unchanged, an increased ITA target in 2019 (by 10% I remember?) means lower CRS at the end! [BUT I do recognize some will be hurt due Age score lost]

 

[Shaanoh]

The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.

With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan

 

[canstar.kites]

The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.

Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

The draw rarely occurs post 2:30 pm UTC.

I don't think it will happen today. It may happen tomorrow or next week or sometime later this year in the worst case.

Please note the actual draw time mentioned for each draw is always a few hours before they publish it on the CIC website. For example, if draw occurs at 2:30 PM UTC, they might publish it on the CIC website around 4:30 PM UTC.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.

Not really, we do get to know

 

[LKRYA]

The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.

I think this with the IELTS results. There were two exam results from the last draw. +many more with CD based exams. Something majorly wrong with the targets and the draws.

 

[askaboutcanada]

With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan

Yes. I agree with this. Even I don't think there will be 3000+ guys with 450 points.
If there is a draw to today, It can be somewhere between 443-447

 

[abhishek_89]

With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan

I could be wrong. I am just using the available data for my calculations.

 

[SeniorStakes]

The man who is responsible to update the CIC website seems to be on leave. The draw might have already happened.

 

[abhishek_89]

Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.

Yes, the only data we get is the number of applicants in the pool on a specific date before the draw.

 

[EricD]

I think this with the IELTS results. There were two exam results from the last draw. +many more with CD based exams. Something majorly wrong with the targets and the draws.

Yes I think you provided good insight, maybe IELTS results date will be a factor. The only thing I am not sure is: all paper based exams release results on the same day, or countries may have difference?

 

[abhishek_89]

I think this with the IELTS results. There were two exam results from the last draw. +many more with CD based exams. Something majorly wrong with the targets and the draws.

CIC have targets which they will achieve by end of the year. If they feel they are behind the target at any point, they can go ahead with 1 week gap draws or increase the number of invites issued.

 

[SithLord]

Draw delays is probably due to backlogs. Still plenty from September AORs are yet to receive their PPRs.

 

[EricD]

CIC have targets which they will achieve by end of the year. If they feel they are behind the target at any point, they can go ahead with 1 week gap draws or increase the number of invites issued.

And with the General Election coming near, I would boldly guess there is a slight possibility that they use as much of their target as they can to get support from their potential voter in the future, just in case they lost to opposition party.

 

[Amandacanny]

So you have already got a COPR and you want to return it and apply for PR again!

Instead you can do a soft landing before April 2019 and then you can return back to Canada anytime before April 2022.

Are u saying that when u do soft landing and get ur PR card, you can return to your home country and stay for two years before returning to Canada. I have a baby that will be 1 year by December, assuming my application goes well, can I return her to my home country for my mum to take care of her while I come back to Canada to work as spouse is unaccompanying