Ray of Hope - 106th draw

[guptanuj]

I received 4 messages at 10:20 AM (2 hours before the draw).
1. Express entry profile received - next steps - jobbank
2. Welcome to express entry
3 and 4. How to find a job in canada.

I guess i will just wait 24 hours and hope that i was among the pool of selected candidates

If your score was above the cut off, you will receive an ITA. I got my ITA in the Nov 15 draw and had submitted my profile 15 minutes before the draw.

 

[ain88]

Hi guys, just need an opinion...

Will 453 be still good score next April? (I already have ITA, AOR but I'm making a back up plan just in case.....)

 

[Asiyasultana]

Hi!

If you look at the draws in 2017, the scores were 445 plus in November, December and January and only came down to 440-442 in February 2018.

There will probably be two draws in December , one on 19 December as it’s last working Wednesday of the year. So the other draw could be on 5,10 or 12 December.

Unless the ones around 440-445 are losing 5 points because of their birthdays falling in the next couple of months others can remain positive and wait for a couple of months to get an ITA and get their documents ready as we see many people receiving ITA and declining it as they don’t have their documents yet.

 

[Asiyasultana]

Only factor that seems to bring down the cut off is when the draw takes place at a gap between 1-2 weeks.

 

[Peacekeeper87]

Only factor that seems to bring down the cut off is when the draw takes place at a gap between 1-2 weeks.

One element that many many people tend to forget, is that the number of invitations issued has been very often affecting the score.
it would make sense, as the higher the volume of invitations, the more candidates selected, the lower the score of the lowest ranked candidate.
Number of invitations has been also quite steadily increasing since 2015, so there might be the possibility of that volume going above 4,000 in the upcoming draws. It really depends on what's their targets and planning.

They've gone from 700-2000ish in 2015, 2000-3700ish in 2017, and now steadily in the 3500-3900 range in 2018.

So, given a relatively steady pool composition from draw to draw is it is today, the number of invitations issued is also a strong candidate for affecting cut-off score, as that's what determines the cut-off score.

 

[Kaya.94]

Really hoping that 2 draws in December will bring down the scores to 440 or less for those waiting in the 430's

 

[Cooldeepu1]

True that.the logic pointed out by you makes sense.even if there are a few draws in December and January, it can take up to Feb to get back to 440 levels.whats your score by the way?

Hi!

If you look at the draws in 2017, the scores were 445 plus in November, December and January and only came down to 440-442 in February 2018.

There will probably be two draws in December , one on 19 December as it’s last working Wednesday of the year. So the other draw could be on 5,10 or 12 December.

Unless the ones around 440-445 are losing 5 points because of their birthdays falling in the next couple of months others can remain positive and wait for a couple of months to get an ITA and get their documents ready as we see many people receiving ITA and declining it as they don’t have their documents yet.[/QUOTE

 

[Tech_girl123]

Hi!

If you look at the draws in 2017, the scores were 445 plus in November, December and January and only came down to 440-442 in February 2018.

There will probably be two draws in December , one on 19 December as it’s last working Wednesday of the year. So the other draw could be on 5,10 or 12 December.

Unless the ones around 440-445 are losing 5 points because of their birthdays falling in the next couple of months others can remain positive and wait for a couple of months to get an ITA and get their documents ready as we see many people receiving ITA and declining it as they don’t have their documents yet.

frankly.. 2017s data cannot be relied on .. trends have changed tremendously... this year's trend was completely different and maybe next year too it will be different from 2018.. good or bad

 

[Stoick]

Hi!

If you look at the draws in 2017, the scores were 445 plus in November, December and January and only came down to 440-442 in February 2018.

There will probably be two draws in December , one on 19 December as it’s last working Wednesday of the year. So the other draw could be on 5,10 or 12 December.

Unless the ones around 440-445 are losing 5 points because of their birthdays falling in the next couple of months others can remain positive and wait for a couple of months to get an ITA and get their documents ready as we see many people receiving ITA and declining it as they don’t have their documents yet.

This is a totally wrong assumption. Look at the data at the end of 2017 68000 people in pool now close to 100000.

Nov 30, 2017
441-450 622
431-440 2,975

Nov 23, 2018
441-450 1,857
431-440 9,411

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-80th-draw.532063/

445 is the new 440. So please do whatever you can to increase your CRS. Unless CIC continues with same number of invitations the cut-off can go even higher.

 

[abhishek_89]

The numbers have escalated too fast in last 3 months. You were correct mate, this was a heartbreaking Wednesday for me sitting at 444 and losing 5 points on 1st December. Such is the difference between having a draw on Monday vs Wednesday
Want your opinion, what is the probability of a back-to-back draw in December (either on 5th and 19th, or 12th and 19th) given Christmas break, and if that happens, is there a chance of cut-off coming down to 439 with 3900 ITA?

There is a possibility of a lesser gap draw in December considering CIC have not done draws after Dec 22nd in the past. If they have a 7 day gap draw, then CRS 439 is possible. But, if they have 9, 11 or 12 day gap draws, then they can maintain the cut off to remain on CRS 440 or above.

So, either a 1 week gap draw on Dec 5th or a 1 week gap draw on Dec 19th could lead to a CRS 439 cut off. Tie breaker would be a big factor even if this happens as there would be a considerable chunk of applicants stuck on CRS 439.

 

[abhishek_89]

Gosh! The whole of last year draws hovered around 440-441.But now when I am in the pool with 444, it's only seems to be increasing with each passing draw.Any prediction on when it could come back to 444 levels any time in the near future? And would there be 2 draws in December?

Next draw should be 444 if draw happens on Dec 12th with 3900 ITAs. 2 draws are expected but not sure as they would not conduct any draws towards the end of the month. So, a lesser gap draw can be expected.

 

[Guri9154]

Hello everyone,

When the next draw is coming?
Any idea?

Thnx

 

[Tech_girl123]

This is a totally wrong assumption. Look at the data at the end of 2017 68000 people in pool now close to 100000.

Nov 30, 2017
441-450 622
431-440 2,975

Nov 23, 2018
441-450 1,857
431-440 9,411

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-80th-draw.532063/

445 is the new 440. So please do whatever you can to increase your CRS. Unless CIC continues with same number of invitations the cut-off can go even higher.

for the last statement.. there is still time to decide on that. 445 is not possible for people who do not have a PG even if they score IELTS CLB 10 !
445 is just the last cut off.. if the draw happens regularly maybe the cut off will come down ...

 

[Aukhan]

hi experts and star members i have a question regarding work experience

I have worked in organization A (NOC 6221) From 1st december 2012 - 29th feb 2016 - (3years - 3 months) Claiming points

After that i went to saudia worked in organization B with entirely different job for 11 months (1st April 2016-4th march 2017) Not claiming points

Came back and started working job in organization A same noc(13th march - 31st december) Not claiming points

Now i am working in organization C (different Noc)(From Feb 2018 to present) (Not claiming points for it either)

Kindly help me out what to mention in work history As organization B & C might not give me reference letters etc. And i donot want to make things complex to visa officer

 

[shyee]

hi experts and star members i have a question regarding work experience

I have worked in organization A (NOC 6221) From 1st december 2012 - 29th feb 2016 - (3years - 3 months) Claiming points

After that i went to saudia worked in organization B with entirely different job for 11 months (1st April 2016-4th march 2017) Not claiming points

Came back and started working job in organization A same noc(13th march - 31st december) Not claiming points

Now i am working in organization C (different Noc)(From Feb 2018 to present) (Not claiming points for it either)

Kindly help me out what to mention in work history As organization B & C might not give me reference letters etc. And i donot want to make things complex to visa officer

Mention the work experience you're NOT claiming points for in your PERSONAL HISTORY.