I think more than 3500 new profiles with 440+ get added between two draws. Which makes it 250 per day.Guys, the pool has now around 9.400 people on the 431-440 range. This number is going up, every round we see an increase of 2% in this number. So with simple math, we can say that we have 940 people with 440 and 940 people with 439, going UP.
Every round of invitation we see around 2,200 new people coming into the pool with a score over 441, or gaining point and going up in the pool.
So, 2200 + 940 = 3140 with 440+ points, and this number is going UP, it's a trend. We would need at least 2 or 3 rounds with 439 points before we "clear" this range and arrive to 438. I'm sorry, i think 438 won't get ir this year.
Try other options guys, increase score with ielts, or study, or french.
Last draw happened with 12 days gap. That's why most of the 440 got cleared.
So your calculations that only 2200 profiles get added, seems falwed. Going by the trends, even 439 won't be possible.