Thanks , it shows a date and application in progress under final decision section. I hope to see some good news soon.
Stressed AF
PR confirmation portal timelines
- Thread starter iwantvisa
- Start date
Thanks , it shows a date and application in progress under final decision section. I hope to see some good news soon.
Stressed AF
I have graduated to an official PR this morning.
My timeline:
* ITA: Sep 13, 2024 (a French proficiency draw)
* AOR: Sep 20, 2024
* Case was re-classified as CEC due to my CEC eligibility some time in late Sep, 2024
* Applied for a BOWP: Sep 30, 2024
* FD: Jan 7, 2025
* P1: Jan 8, 2025 (replied the same day plus one more time around Jan 11th for technical reasons)
* P2: Jan 13, 2025 (uploaded everything the same day)
* Received BOWP approval: Jan 15-ish, 2025
* Received the actual BOWP in the mail: Jan 27, 2025
* eCOPR: Mar 24, 2025
So, the stream was technically CEC, single applicant. eCOPR expiration date: Nov 7, 2025.
My landing services VO was Montréal.
I have no idea what my SVO and PVO were, and whether they have changed in the process, because I haven't called IRCC even once.
Number of Web forms raised: 0, number of calls: 0, number of MP contacts: 0.
And no, the process is not at all "completely random". Once you collect a few hundreds of cases, analyze their dominant ITA and P2 ranges, observe them move, it stops looking random. With enough statistical analysis and discussions with other immigrants I've come to conclude that there isn't a single "case processing queue" but rather N queues (one per VO? a group of smaller VOs?) that multiple landing services VOs draw cases from based on the dominant ITA date range.
In March 2025, the 90th percentile of P2-to-eCOPR has dropped below 90 days for the first time since Jan or Dec 2024. The wait times are improving,
and the dominant P2 range remains fairly tight (a couple of weeks) for the two most common landing services VOs (Montréal, Etobicoke).
I wish you all that the eCOPR issuance rate improves and the gigantic backlog from July and August 2024 ITAs (≈ 40% of all invitations in 2024) is finally gets worked through. Stressing over your eCOPR won't change anything and won't help. Using data and focusing on the rest of your life will.
My timeline:
* ITA: Sep 13, 2024 (a French proficiency draw)
* AOR: Sep 20, 2024
* Case was re-classified as CEC due to my CEC eligibility some time in late Sep, 2024
* Applied for a BOWP: Sep 30, 2024
* FD: Jan 7, 2025
* P1: Jan 8, 2025 (replied the same day plus one more time around Jan 11th for technical reasons)
* P2: Jan 13, 2025 (uploaded everything the same day)
* Received BOWP approval: Jan 15-ish, 2025
* Received the actual BOWP in the mail: Jan 27, 2025
* eCOPR: Mar 24, 2025
So, the stream was technically CEC, single applicant. eCOPR expiration date: Nov 7, 2025.
My landing services VO was Montréal.
I have no idea what my SVO and PVO were, and whether they have changed in the process, because I haven't called IRCC even once.
Number of Web forms raised: 0, number of calls: 0, number of MP contacts: 0.
And no, the process is not at all "completely random". Once you collect a few hundreds of cases, analyze their dominant ITA and P2 ranges, observe them move, it stops looking random. With enough statistical analysis and discussions with other immigrants I've come to conclude that there isn't a single "case processing queue" but rather N queues (one per VO? a group of smaller VOs?) that multiple landing services VOs draw cases from based on the dominant ITA date range.
In March 2025, the 90th percentile of P2-to-eCOPR has dropped below 90 days for the first time since Jan or Dec 2024. The wait times are improving,
and the dominant P2 range remains fairly tight (a couple of weeks) for the two most common landing services VOs (Montréal, Etobicoke).
I wish you all that the eCOPR issuance rate improves and the gigantic backlog from July and August 2024 ITAs (≈ 40% of all invitations in 2024) is finally gets worked through. Stressing over your eCOPR won't change anything and won't help. Using data and focusing on the rest of your life will.
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Thanks, based on your analysis, how does the queue for CoPR work, is that based on the date of AOR or P2 date? I am AOR 29th July and P2 Date 26th Feb.
Based on multiple factors, including (per IRCC agents others have talked to) the data you will almost never or never see reported publicly: the temporary status expiration, for example. Travel during the virtual landing process (P1 and P2) also can significantly distort certain timelines. The original P1 date plays a role but it becomes very difficult to analyze to what extent.
In March to date, the correlation has been by far the highest with the P2 range (currently a significant majority of reports have a P2 in the Jan 1-15 range). Right now that's the range to watch. This can go back to correlating more with ITA and/or AOR more than P2 once landing queue shrinks later in 2025 (here's hope that it will happen, just like it did in 2023).
Yes, this feels like the trend. Many thanks for your response.
Wish more would take this approach. I often wonder how resources answering repeat phone calls and webforms as well as regular GCMS notes requests could be redeployed to deal with actual processing. As long as you have similar processing times to others it is just normal processing and it will get processed in due time.
Yup, after going through the process and collecting data for close to two months from Reddit, FB and this forum I am absolutely shocked by how uninformed so many fellow immigrants are, and how poorly IRCC communicates the expected timeframes.
As a result, there are people who panic and call their MPs mere three weeks into their background check. No one has warned them that a background check can easily take 2-5 months, and sometimes even over a year (comprehensive background checks are brutal).
The same idea then stretches all the way to PR cards. In some communities it's a question asked literally several times per day, no one is aware of the IRCC service with a dispatch estimate and so on.
It is a PR (as in public relations, no pun intended) disaster for IRCC even though their AOR-to-P2 (or AOR-to-FD, since that's what they track) have been stable, within their advertised wait times, every month I have verified (since Sep 2024 through today). So they are doing their job well, just not for landing services in the beginning of some years, and they are the absolutely worst at communicating what the next step should be and how long it might take.
I now recall WES after a certain stage very explicitly tells you to wait. "Do not contact us, we will contact you, it can take a few months". Honest and sets up the expectations right immediately.
Nnamz
Member
- Feb 14, 2025
- 14
- 21
- NOC Code......
- 42201
- AOR Received.
- 07-09-2024
- Med's Done....
- 22-10-2024
- LANDED..........
- 07-01-2025
Applied for EE Pool - CEC : February 16th 2024
Invitation to Apply: August 27th 2024
Applied/AOR: September 7th 2024
P1: January 6th 2025
P2: January 7th 2025
e-COPR: March 24th 2025
This is my third PR application. 12 years in Canada. First in 2020. Second in 2022. Both denied. Never give up!!!!
Invitation to Apply: August 27th 2024
Applied/AOR: September 7th 2024
P1: January 6th 2025
P2: January 7th 2025
e-COPR: March 24th 2025
This is my third PR application. 12 years in Canada. First in 2020. Second in 2022. Both denied. Never give up!!!!
Nnamz
Member
- Feb 14, 2025
- 14
- 21
- NOC Code......
- 42201
- AOR Received.
- 07-09-2024
- Med's Done....
- 22-10-2024
- LANDED..........
- 07-01-2025