Unfortunately this forum is rife with vague over-generalizations declaring most are this or that. To be clear, it is NOT likely that MOST PRs are refused boarding a flight to Canada. As for, more particularly, most PRs who do not present a valid PR card or PR TD? Maybe "most" PRs who do not present a valid PR card or PR TD are refused boarding, but I am sure there are scores and scores of such PRs who are NOT refused boarding . . .
the individual situation varies considerably and that matters.
For example, scores of PRs are U.S. citizens who can board a flight to Canada without presenting either a PR card or PR TD. And since a very high percentage of travelers coming to Canada are coming from the U.S., and since PRs who are U.S. citizens frequently travel between the two countries, no crystal ball is necessary to discern there are likely many such travelers relying on their U.S. passport rather than a PR card . . . noting, too, that among long term PRs who do not become Canadian citizens, U.S. citizens probably number high; indeed, among U.S. citizens I personally know, more have remained PRs for DECADES than the number who have become Canadian citizens.
In actual practice, my guess is that MOST PRs know the rules about boarding a flight to Canada and behave accordingly. My guess is that the number of Americans who are Canadian PRs who arrive at the airport to fly to Canada without a PR card or PR TD and then are NOT refused boarding likely OUTNUMBERS the number of PRs who are refused when they attempt to board a flight without a PR card or PR TD . . . in large part because those who know the rules and know they are likely to be refused boarding do not make an attempt to do so. That is, overall I'd venture MORE PRs board a flight to Canada without either a PR card or PR TD than the number who are actually refused boarding.
The latter is not to suggest an explanation for the particular report here by
@Ddkim but, rather, to emphasize that generalizations tend to be uninformative, that what really matters are the particular facts and circumstances in the individual case.
And this particular tangent does NOT appear to be at all about the more common exceptions (like U.S. citizens, the most common exception among others) for when a PR must present a PRC or PR TD to board a flight.
BUT NEITHER IS IT ABOUT THE MORE COMMON SCENARIOS IN WHICH PRs ARE ABROAD WITHOUT A VALID PR CARD.
Which warrants recognizing the general rules and how they work. The general rules matter, of course, and are thus very instructive. Indeed, they offer an explanation for why it is likely NOT that many PRs are actually refused boarding a flight to Canada due to not presenting a valid PRC or PR TD . . . it is easy to predict that boarding will be denied, so it would be futile if not outright foolish to even purchase a ticket. Thus, most probably never try.
Thus, sure, it is probably valid to observe it is likely "most" PRs without a PRC or PR TD, and who do not qualify for one of the exceptions, WILL BE refused boarding a flight to Canada, if they try . . . so don't bother.
Usually. And they don't try, usually.
Which finally brings these comments around to the situation described by
@Ddkim and the choices made and the outcome experienced.
There are multiple aspects of this which separate it from the more common scenarios in which PRs are abroad without a valid PR card.
And this is why this report should NOT be taken to signal it might be worth trying to fly to Canada without a PR card or PR TD in the more common scenarios in which PRs are abroad without a valid PR card.
BUT it is also why @Ddkim's post is a VALUABLE REPORT illustrating when it may be worth the attempt to go ahead and board the flight home to Canada despite not having a PRC or PR TD.
The theft or loss of important documents happens. Major PAIN-IN-THE-POSTERIOR. Securing Travel and Identity and Banking documents has always been a major focus of my attention when I travel. For good reason. BUT as we all know
STUFF-HAPPENS.
It was prudent for
@Ddkim to NOT panic, to take a breath, and make an attempt to board the scheduled flight as planned before pursuing a PR TD or, as some would do, arrange a return flight to the U.S. and then travel to the border by land.
It is possible some "luck" was involved, but it is more likely that some specific aspects of the situation facilitated the outcome experienced.
I do not know the details in any more depth than reported above but I can suggest that among some factors which MIGHT influence how things go in a similar scenario, a big one (not sure if it applies here but it can in similar situations) is the possibility (perhaps even probability) the traveler has already been approved to board the flight.
In particular, if the scheduled flight is part of a round-trip ticket it is possible that the passenger has already been screened and passed the screening, that a boarding pass has already been authorized or issued. Unlike the procedures employed prior to the full implementation of eTA, authorization to board is now a decision ordinarily made ELECTRONICALLY attendant issuing or authorizing the issuance of a boarding pass . . . previously it appears to have been screened by airline personnel visually examining the traveler's passport and if necessary PR card (which allowed many PRs with visa-exempt passports to board without displaying a PR card, since their passports alone met a requirement for boarding a flight to Canada).
The traveler's passport in this particular scenario could have easily been sufficient, since once the boarding pass has been authorized or issued the main thing the airline is screening is to make sure the traveler's passport and identity match the booking and manifest.
Moreover, even if the passenger did not have a round-trip ticket as such, as
@Ddkim observed, the airline nonetheless still has discretion to allow the traveler to board the flight . . . and particularly where the return flight is aboard the same airline the traveler arrived in RECENTLY, and that ticket was purchased prior to departing Canada, it is likely the airline can independently verify in its own records the traveler's status.
There is nonetheless a big RISK an airline will not allow boarding and the traveler will face a delay in returning to Canada similar to the situation described by CBC recently, where a PR abroad for a short trip was stranded abroad for a significant amount of time waiting to obtain a PR TD.
Bottom-line: What happens to most other PRs is NOT much relevant. The individual situation matters far more. Whether that is about an exception to the general rules or about particular circumstances which can influence how things actually go. In the situation described here, it was indeed prudent to go to the airport and attempt to take the originally scheduled flight. And the outcome should be no surprise.
In particular, a PR who has a scheduled return flight as part of a round-trip package, probably has fairly good odds of being allowed to board that flight without a PR Card or PR TD . . . assuming, as happened here, the PR nonetheless has his or her passport. That said, the risk otherwise is so high it would be foolish to rely on being allowed to board such a flight . . . so making the attempt to fly in this situation is essentially a decision compelled by circumstances and a PR should be prepared to deal with things if boarding is denied.
A concluding caveat: while it is a good idea to be prepared to fully explain the situation, and to have a copy of a police report to corroborate the explanation, how it actually goes is more likely about the particular airline's policies and practices. It is possible one might, in a sense,
ARGUE their way aboard. BUT as such things go, if the airline policy is such it would deny boarding in the situation, arguing the case is not likely to change the outcome . . . with some exceptions of course.
EDIT to ADD clarification:
The key take-away is that how these things go is NOT a game of chance. How it goes for "most" (as in one more than half), or a large majority, or for just a few, is largely NOT relevant. In these matters probabilities can be statistically valid but have minimal forecasting relevance . . . rather, the specific circumstances dictate the more likely outcomes. And these vary from one individual to another. It can be very difficult to reliably identify let alone weigh the many variables that can influence the outcome. Just because it is difficult to predict an outcome does not mean luck is at play.