2024 PGP sponsorship probability:
There were a total of 203213 interests submitted on 2020, out of which 13,400 were invited to apply (Ref:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/pgp-2020.646383/page-176#post-9121347), i.e., remaining in the pool = 203,213-13,400 = 1,89,813
In 2021, 34500 were invited to apply (Ref:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/parents-and-grandparents-sponsorship-2021.744749/page-86#post-9737915), i.e., remaining in the pool = 189813 - 34500 = 155313
In 2022, IRCC announced that they will be "sending invitations to apply to 23,100 interested potential sponsors" (Ref:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/10/reuniting-families-across-the-country.html), i.e., minimum remaining in the pool = 155,313 - 23,100 = 132,213
In 2023, "IRCC announced that they will be "sending invitations to apply to 24,000 interested potential sponsors"" (Ref:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/parents-grandparents-program-re-opens-fall.html) minimum remaining in the pool =
132,213 - 24,000 = 108,213
This year in 2024, "IRCC announced that they will be "sending invitations to apply to 35,700 interested potential sponsors""
Probability = 33%