If you see the trend last year, the federal CRS cutoff consistently fell within the OINP draws range because of which most of the NOI's were wasted but that is not the case this year. Early 2020 saw very high CRS cutoff and most people who received NOI in the 460's and low 470's applied and got nominated.
This year only the May 13th Tech draw and June 3rd priority occupations draw saw this happen as the CEC only cutoff fell to 431 and the all program draw cutoff is at 476 now.
OINP issued most of their NOI's by this time last year but this year they issued much less NOI's. Unless all program draws continue and people with NOI's receive ITA's, chances of another EE draw are very low IMO. Let's see what happens.
- In that sense, 2019 was a good year for OINP. Don't think there were as many dead NOIs as there are in 2020. Case in point: OINP HCP Tech Draw, 2019 - 2 draws, 3366 NOIs (in a span of 20 days). Score range 435-459 as on Aug 1st. EE CRS was always above 460 after Aug 1st.
- 2019 was the first year they launched targeted draws and OINP did b2b draws to meet the annual allocation. I mean, 4400 NOI in 30 days (July 12- Aug 15, 2019) - didn't see anything like that till now in 2020.
- In early 2019 there was also a General Draw (part of HCP) which issued nearly 1500 NOIs. Don't see that happening in 2020 so you can allocate those numbers in 60:40 % basis to Tech and Priority respectively.
- 2020 has been more or less once every quarter. That's where I believe 1 Priority Draw Before September 2020 and 1 Tech + 1 Priority in Last Quarter (Oct-Dec 2020) is still in store.
- Going by numbers - Even after the tech draw on July 29th, there are close to 2500 NOIs which still remain to be allocated to above 3 draws just to match 2019 NOIs. Any additional allocation is a bonus.
2020 hasn't been a good year for many. Hope these last few months bring some cheer.