Paulosky said:
skywalker u should say 100 percent sure.as u are september applicant u cant get even aor this year
You can't be 100% sure. I believe you are basing that assumption on the current 8 months waiting. You must understand that 8 months is not the processing time. Actually, processing occurs usually in less than a month, which is the typical time past between AOR and nomination. The remaining months are the time necessary to process the applicants who come before you in the queue. And here is the first misconception: there are far more applicants from January and February than the rest of the year. Therefore, waiting times increased constantly while NSOI was processing those applicants. Now that they have reached March applications, the waiting time remained constant. As they should start processing April applications beginning next week, the waiting time will suddenly drop to 7 months. I wouldn't be surprised if they start giving AORs to May applicants as early as mid-December.
While the SS is far from containing all applicants, its current sample rate is around 37%. And that sample, instead of decreasing over time, has increased from less than 30% for January applicants. Currently, I believe the total nominations available this year to NS Demand are between 350-400, but it is even possible that they surpass the 450 mark. So, there must be at least some 40 nominations remaining, but that number might reach even 150. As there are around 60 applicants between the last user to report a nomination number and my position on the SS, there is a considerable possibility if the sample continues to raise.
Obviously, I think it is unlikely for the sample to reach higher figures, such as 50% or more. Still, there is another variable into play: at least 4 applicants, so far, have declined NS nominations, as they have already received from Saskatchewan. Those 4 are the ones who reported their intent to decline here. As most applicants had very little hope of receiving nomination from NS when SK first opened their EE stream, many others might have followed their path, as well as there must be a significant portion that applied to Ontario. It is not exaggerate to estimate that at least 20% of NS applicants have applied to one of those provinces. Some might have even received ITAs directly, as the cutoff dropped 3 more points since April.
Therefore, even though I do believe it is very hard for any post-June applicant to receive AOR this year, no one can be 100% sure.