I would say that with 1.5 years still remaining on your PR card, there is very little chance that you would be reported.
Caution: for a PR who is NOT in compliance with the PR Residency Obligation the chances of being examined and reported really depend on the particular PR and some key factors. Make no mistake, any PR not in compliance with the PR Residency Obligation is at risk for being reported upon arrival at a Port-of-Entry, and for most in this situation that risk is significantly higher than a "very little chance" regardless of the PR card validity dates.
Historically this has not been the case. Risks, including for those PRs carrying and presenting a valid PR card, increased dramatically around 2011-2012 or so, and they continue to gradually increase as screening, records, technology, and information sharing, are enhanced.
The biggest factor is whether there are indicators or clues which are more or less likely to trigger a referral to Secondary. Once in Secondary, how it goes will depend a great deal on the traveler's response to particular questions in conjunction with information otherwise apparent to the examining officer, and that will have a far bigger impact on the chances of being reported than how much longer the PR card is valid for.
Note: for returning PRs there is some random chance of a referral to Secondary and some examination as to compliance with the PR RO. Probability of this is very low. Most PR referrals to Secondary for PR RO examination are criteria-based.
Overall, PRs with a valid PR card are presumed to have valid status and thus are not likely to be referred to Secondary for an examination regarding compliance with the PR RO
UNLESS something triggers questions about PR RO compliance.
For some PR-travelers returning to Canada, the expiration date on their PR card might be a factor which is considered in deciding whether to make a Secondary referral (for PR RO compliance assessment) but there are many other factors which will loom far, far larger, and have more influence on what the probability of a Secondary referral is.
In this context it is worth noting that a new PR (an immigrant who has been a PR for less than five years) whose PR card indicates that less than THREE years have elapsed since landing CANNOT possibly be in breach of the PR RO. While the PR card is typically issued some time after the landing date, a new PR's card valid for another
two plus years will thus, ordinarily, indicate no potential PR RO issues and there is indeed "very little chance" of a PR RO compliance examination let alone being reported.
Not necessarily so for a PR carrying a PR card valid for just another 1.5 years. For a PR carrying a PRC valid for just another 1.5 years, the chances of a RO compliance examination in Secondary, and being Reported, will depend far more on such things as:
- how long the PR has been abroad since last time in Canada
- impression or appearance that PR is visiting rather than returning to ordinary place of residence
- impression or appearance that PR is just now moving to Canada, thus indicating the PR has been living abroad
- any other factors or circumstances which raise a question about how much time the PR has been spending in Canada, including pattern of entries into Canada, including any previous flags or FOSS notes, especially as to RO compliance
A decade ago it appeared to be true that a PR carrying a PR card valid for a year or more still had very little chance of being reported at a Port-of-Entry. That changed during the reign of Harper and CBSA and CIC efforts to elevate PR RO enforcement in conjunction with more thorough screening of all travelers generally, including PRs particularly. There is little sign that under the current Liberal government that CBSA or IRCC has mitigated let alone abated the escalation of enforcement.
SUMMARY: the biggest risk factor for being reported is whether the traveler is likely to be waived through the PIL OR referred to Secondary. While the PR card expiration date may be a factor in the risk of being referred to Secondary, other factors have more influence. Once a RO compliance assessment is in progress in Secondary, the expiration date on the PR card will be largely irrelevant and other factors will almost certainly dictate whether the PR is reported or not.