Hahaha welcome to the club!!!
Hope you're not Winnipeg VO because they really don't care about your file and put it aside until they feel like picking it up again (which seems like what they did to me, as I have literally been skipped now waiting blindly compromising my future and time)
I'm also AR Dec 2023.
It's complete and pure BS that March 2023 ones are getting e-copr already. Most of them are newbies as well.
Still waiting for portal since July, hope you get something soon too.
There many factors has to what delays a file, VO is just one but the main thing is that every applicant file is different and so because everyones credentials is unique in some way, the processing of the file differs. One may think that their file/application is so simple yet it's not the case in reality. Here is what I have noticed so far:
Some NON-EE files are approved and got their portal in 4 to 7 months of time (from the date of AR). One of the reasons is that many of these applicants have nominations from a province that is deemed priority processing, and within the province, there are certain NOC/TEER that also puts in weight on the application, IRCC have some commitments to these provinces and they try to archive their targets by some percent. So if one is in that class or range, chances they get DM on the file much before others.
Outside the priority processing for NON-EE, there are applicant who got approved/Portal in 7 ~ 8 months of time. This I believe is pre-pandemic processing times + that these applicants may have lived in U.S. for some time in the past, this results in faster BGC processing and that leads to quick decision on their file.
If one have not lived in one of 5 info-sharing countries in the past, but given their application is easily verifiable by the authorities, the general processing time is like 8 ~ 9+ months
Lastly, there is also some luck factor in the end - that whatever it maybe on the applicant's file, it is just processed in timely manner.
And yes, there been applications in process for over 18 months, some going over 24 months from the date of AR, the reality is we don't know what's actual case, what information they have put in the application, mistakes/errors by applicants or their representatives in the form filling, there are just too many things can lead to delay. Hypothetically, say if the file is really simple, clean straightforward, and no errors form filling, but still delays, its just bad luck or whatever one thinks it could be.
The experience above is from my own file, from my co-workers file (from 6 different background), and countless reading on forums, reading from other members on this forum and their journey to PR -- is that just when you think that there is a set pattern and you somehow relate that pattern is maybe applicable on one's own file, you will at some point realize that there is no set pattern, its just that everyones file is processed differently in one way or another. Not saying there are no commonality among many files, just that when your time comes (and no here knows when), things will happen.
