Currently being in the same boat as a PGWP applying for CEC, I feel this will help ease some worries:
1. It has been mentioned that at least for the near future (a year or so), they express to offer ITA to a lot of candidates that do not have PNP or LMIA.
2. They have set cap of around 23,000 PR for CEC for 2015, which they will be meeting. For that purpose they will be (if need be) holding CEC specific draws. Meaning only candidates eligible for CEC will be picked from the pool. I believe they are aware that PGWP's might not be able to get high enough scores compared to others due to the nature of CRS. So if CECs are lagging behind, we might see all draw memebers being CEC, which is good news for us with scores of 350 to 500+.
3. The total number of LMIA's issued in 2014 was 1200. Some numbers of 120,000 floating around on this site is the total issued since the beginning of the whole LMOs and the LMIAs program over the years (cumulative). So we can expect the fresh LMIAS to increase to around 3,000 max for 2015 (my estimate). Even if some of the previously issued LMIAs start hiring again, it can't be more than an additional 1,000 (my estimate). The processing time of LMIAs will be increasing as well as more people try to get them. I have seen numbers of up to 4 months.
Bottom line is, there are not going to be too many LMIAs floating around to take up all 23,000 CEC PRs. A vast majority will be picked from non LMIA pool.
4. As far as PNP goes. A lot of the provinces are not on board yet, so not too many PNPs will be floating around EE just yet. But that number should increase with time.
Bottom line is, no need to be disappointed just yet. LMIAs and PNPs will not be the only ones getting ITAs. Numbers will start start coming down to 600 below. Based on the information I have gathered, my judgement is that by the 6th or 7th draw, minimum score cut off should be well below 600, even as low as below 400 (especially in the case of CEC specific draws)
So lets keep our chins up and not get disheartened by these first few draws.. the trend is already very positive. With only 1500 odd ITAs, the numbers have come down to 818 already. There should be only a hundred odd candidates between 818 and 600, and only a few more PNP/LMIA profiles adding every week. Based of this, we should expect the next draw to be very close to below 600 if not around 550.
And its only gonna keep decreasing, as new PGWPS generally become eligible for CEC around May-June of each year (graduation dates). Even so there is room for the majority of CEC candidates, and if you don't get picked by your first year of work experience, by next year you will have two years work experience and thus have a better chance of getting picked.
SO lets just smiles everyone, relax and watch how the next 4-5 draws turn out. Everything will become quite clear about this EE.
1. It has been mentioned that at least for the near future (a year or so), they express to offer ITA to a lot of candidates that do not have PNP or LMIA.
2. They have set cap of around 23,000 PR for CEC for 2015, which they will be meeting. For that purpose they will be (if need be) holding CEC specific draws. Meaning only candidates eligible for CEC will be picked from the pool. I believe they are aware that PGWP's might not be able to get high enough scores compared to others due to the nature of CRS. So if CECs are lagging behind, we might see all draw memebers being CEC, which is good news for us with scores of 350 to 500+.
3. The total number of LMIA's issued in 2014 was 1200. Some numbers of 120,000 floating around on this site is the total issued since the beginning of the whole LMOs and the LMIAs program over the years (cumulative). So we can expect the fresh LMIAS to increase to around 3,000 max for 2015 (my estimate). Even if some of the previously issued LMIAs start hiring again, it can't be more than an additional 1,000 (my estimate). The processing time of LMIAs will be increasing as well as more people try to get them. I have seen numbers of up to 4 months.
Bottom line is, there are not going to be too many LMIAs floating around to take up all 23,000 CEC PRs. A vast majority will be picked from non LMIA pool.
4. As far as PNP goes. A lot of the provinces are not on board yet, so not too many PNPs will be floating around EE just yet. But that number should increase with time.
Bottom line is, no need to be disappointed just yet. LMIAs and PNPs will not be the only ones getting ITAs. Numbers will start start coming down to 600 below. Based on the information I have gathered, my judgement is that by the 6th or 7th draw, minimum score cut off should be well below 600, even as low as below 400 (especially in the case of CEC specific draws)
So lets keep our chins up and not get disheartened by these first few draws.. the trend is already very positive. With only 1500 odd ITAs, the numbers have come down to 818 already. There should be only a hundred odd candidates between 818 and 600, and only a few more PNP/LMIA profiles adding every week. Based of this, we should expect the next draw to be very close to below 600 if not around 550.
And its only gonna keep decreasing, as new PGWPS generally become eligible for CEC around May-June of each year (graduation dates). Even so there is room for the majority of CEC candidates, and if you don't get picked by your first year of work experience, by next year you will have two years work experience and thus have a better chance of getting picked.
SO lets just smiles everyone, relax and watch how the next 4-5 draws turn out. Everything will become quite clear about this EE.