The closure of Buffalo has thrown everything out of whack, which makes predicting the outcome a difficult thing to do. Normally, I would have expected you to hear in May 2011, but that's exactly when Buffalo's closure was announced and the files were transferred en masse to Ottawa. My understanding is that everyone at the Buffalo office is now officially gone (it was open for a couple of months after the end of May date to allow them to shut everything down.)
Prior to its closure, Buffalo's processing time for FSW applications was 21 months for the first 20% of applications, 24 months for 50% of application, and 28 months for 80% of applications. The published times for NYC, Seattle, LA and Detroit are in line with these figures as well. Thus, I'd say you should be hearing something fairly soon (e.g., 18 months into the process is about the time they start asking you for docs - medicals, RPRF, updated PCC, etc) because you have a selection decision. With the Buffalo closure and corresponding delay, you may have to wait until early next year before you hear anything.
Good luck!
