May 2018 - Citizenship Applicants

[obannobi]

My application status changed to 'In Process' on Jul 28, 2018.

Nice one Sunny, next one coming up soon. Study hard for your next info, August 25 or before, congrats

 

[spyfy]

Looking at April dates, expect 25 days to 40 days average for test invite.

Just to clarify: This is NOT a realistic number.

Of course, those April applicants who received a test invite received it fast. That's because barely any of them got a test invite.
Only 2 (!) of the 149 people in the April spreadsheed have gotten a test invite so far. They are the first ones, of course they got it early.

It's like making an announcement on July 2nd that says "of those people who went into the hospital on July 1, everyone who got out so far got out in one day, so one day is the average time for hospital stays".

Instead you should look at the January numbers. even in January, only 38% got their invite so far. But in fact for the months of January, December, November, October, September and so on, there is the following consistency:

Average time from In Process to Test Invite: 60-75 days.

The February, March, April, May cohorts are way to new still, the averages are still going up every day.

 

[jangotrick]

Just to clarify: This is NOT a realistic number.

Of course, those April applicants who received a test invite received it fast. That's because barely any of them got a test invite.
Only 2 (!) of the 149 people in the April spreadsheed have gotten a test invite so far. They are the first ones, of course they got it early.

It's like making an announcement on July 2nd that says "of those people who went into the hospital on July 1, everyone who got out so far got out in one day, so one day is the average time for hospital stays".

Instead you should look at the January numbers. even in January, only 38% got their invite so far. But in fact for the months of January, December, November, October, September and so on, there is the following consistency:

Average time from In Process to Test Invite: 60-75 days.

The February, March, April, May cohorts are way to new still, the averages are still going up every day.

Thanks for raising an important point. As a data science person, I want to make it clear that we can carry out an analysis mathematically as well after using multiple layers of processing adding insights, changing assumptions and cleaning up input data. Before I write this answer, I do want to state that you are RIGHT in your assessment while being WRONG at the same time . Those in data science hear this everyday, so it should not be taken as an insult.

a) Mathematically, purely using numbers from Sep 2017 to Apr 2017, the average days from IP to Test invite is 56 days. If we see the moving average from Jan 2017 to Aug 2017, the average days from IP to Test Invite is 73.5 days. If we were in a "Price is Right" game, you would be a definite winner

b) Now, using the above data we make the following assumptions and adjustment using information from public domain :

- Most people who use a travel journal of sorts before they fill up their application form tend to not make unintentional errors in the timeline process. If the processing agent notices an error, they are mandated to get a "second pair of eyes to look at the timeline" which creates delays. I must note that this is not the same as "Non Routine Applications". I do not have data for CIC applications but using other datasets available, I would say that around 18-24% of people file all their filings diligently intentionally. Another 20-25% file their applications diligently as their input data is cleaner and simple. I would say that around 40% of the people file their applications diligently, whether intentionally or passively. For those who file the applications diligently and the processing agent does not notice any errors or confusing dates, within 22-35 days, they should get the test invite provided there are no other complications.

- The average processing time has dropped since the new rules came into effect inspite of the fact that the number of applications has quadrupled.

- As per the CIC agent who I spoke with, more resources are being allocated to clear backlog due to the oncoming elections in 2019. That will further reduce the timeline.

- Since 2017, changes have been made to simplify the main forms making the application process cleaner and swift.

- Another key factor we do not miss is that when we take the data from Jan 2017- Aug 2017, majority (80%) of the applications recieved AOR in 24-34 days. Overall the timeline from "Application Recieved to AOR" right through to "AOR to IP" and "IP to Test Invite" shows an average timeline range of anywhere from 90 days to 110 days.

- The question was asked by a May application and April and May applications have experienced unusual delay between "Application Recieved" and AOR, however, it seems that the overall processing timeline between AOR and Test Invite may be moving towards an average of 90 days to 110 days. The AOR delays may have been designed to allow agents to catch up on the backlog while still remaining within the 12 months processing timelines.

- When we look at the application data-set numbers, family applications will usually receive their AOR together, their "In Process" together and even their test together. Somehow the data gets distorted here as we are looking at multiple co-joined applications whose processing time is joined at hips by using brute force simplifications (process family applications together). If the applications were separated, some would be processed faster while others would be processed slower.

Usually, taking the above assumptions, we would normally run a "Parb" on top of the mathematical data. In parbing, we use external non mathematical data to adjust the numerical data getting a better sense of the situation or what we call "Insights". Any statistics expert who does not parb their data gets it wrong most of the time and historically ALL of the time in understanding of the Big Picture. And if I run parbing adjustment once, it shows the average processing time to what I mentioned in my previous post.

However as one of my former boss explained to me , I should have framed it better. To frame it better, I would say that if the application is filed diligently and the processing agent does not find any errors or confusing information, the test invite should come in 25 to 40 days average range from the day of "In Process" notification.

Again no offence intended and feel free to pick any holes in my argument

 

[lawgirl2018]

I’m still not able to check my application status through cas, is this normal? I received my AOR on the 23rd of July.

 

[jangotrick]

I’m still not able to check my application status through cas, is this normal? I received my AOR on the 23rd of July.

Try using the Application Number/PR Card Number or other numbers and ensure that your details are correct. (See the link below to read what types of identification can be used to track the application).

https://services3.cic.gc.ca/ecas/redir.do?redir=id_num&lang=en

If you cannot see the status by end of the day tommorow, call up the CIC helpline and talk to them. I do not think there is anything to worry though.

 

[spyfy]

Thanks for raising an important point. As a data science person, I want to make it clear that we can carry out an analysis mathematically as well after using multiple layers of processing adding insights, changing assumptions and cleaning up input data. Before I write this answer, I do want to state that you are RIGHT in your assessment while being WRONG at the same time . Those in data science hear this everyday, so it should not be taken as an insult.

a) Mathematically, purely using numbers from Sep 2017 to Apr 2017, the average days from IP to Test invite is 56 days. If we see the moving average from Jan 2017 to Aug 2017, the average days from IP to Test Invite is 73.5 days. If we were in a "Price is Right" game, you would be a definite winner

b) Now, using the above data we make the following assumptions and adjustment using information from public domain :

- Most people who use a travel journal of sorts before they fill up their application form tend to not make unintentional errors in the timeline process. If the processing agent notices an error, they are mandated to get a "second pair of eyes to look at the timeline" which creates delays. I must note that this is not the same as "Non Routine Applications". I do not have data for CIC applications but using other datasets available, I would say that around 18-24% of people file all their filings diligently intentionally. Another 20-25% file their applications diligently as their input data is cleaner and simple. I would say that around 40% of the people file their applications diligently, whether intentionally or passively. For those who file the applications diligently and the processing agent does not notice any errors or confusing dates, within 22-35 days, they should get the test invite provided there are no other complications.

- The average processing time has dropped since the new rules came into effect inspite of the fact that the number of applications has quadrupled.

- As per the CIC agent who I spoke with, more resources are being allocated to clear backlog due to the oncoming elections in 2019. That will further reduce the timeline.

- Since 2017, changes have been made to simplify the main forms making the application process cleaner and swift.

- Another key factor we do not miss is that when we take the data from Jan 2017- Aug 2017, majority (80%) of the applications recieved AOR in 24-34 days. Overall the timeline from "Application Recieved to AOR" right through to "AOR to IP" and "IP to Test Invite" shows an average timeline range of anywhere from 90 days to 110 days.

- The question was asked by a May application and April and May applications have experienced unusual delay between "Application Recieved" and AOR, however, it seems that the overall processing timeline between AOR and Test Invite may be moving towards an average of 90 days to 110 days. The AOR delays may have been designed to allow agents to catch up on the backlog while still remaining within the 12 months processing timelines.

- When we look at the application data-set numbers, family applications will usually receive their AOR together, their "In Process" together and even their test together. Somehow the data gets distorted here as we are looking at multiple co-joined applications whose processing time is joined at hips by using brute force simplifications (process family applications together). If the applications were separated, some would be processed faster while others would be processed slower.

Usually, taking the above assumptions, we would normally run a "Parb" on top of the mathematical data. In parbing, we use external non mathematical data to adjust the numerical data getting a better sense of the situation or what we call "Insights". Any statistics expert who does not parb their data gets it wrong most of the time and historically ALL of the time in understanding of the Big Picture. And if I run parbing adjustment once, it shows the average processing time to what I mentioned in my previous post.

However as one of my former boss explained to me , I should have framed it better. To frame it better, I would say that if the application is filed diligently and the processing agent does not find any errors or confusing information, the test invite should come in 25 to 40 days average range from the day of "In Process" notification.

Again no offence intended and feel free to pick any holes in my argument

With all due respect, apart from hiding everything behind many paragraphs of more fancy words than me, you are still basing your processing time estimate on a dataset of two April applications.

Since the coming into force of bill C-6, the average IP to TI time has consistently been in the range I mentioned. You can not possibly base any substantial assessment on the march and April data, and not really on the February data. That's conditional probability to the max.

You did in fact not explain what was wrong with my assessment of the data. Your post to me seems more like a case of "to a guy with a hammer, everything looks like a nail". That's why you want to introduce a plethora of additional assumptions for no good reason apart from the fact that that's what your day job is (and just to be clear: im not questioning that you are good at it. Neither am i questioning that sometimes, in the absence of enough hard data, educated guesswork is the way to go)

The most important mistake you make imho is that you use your knowledge from other processes involving applications. In particular, this:
"For those who file the applications diligently and the processing agent does not notice any errors or confusing dates, within 22-35 days, they should get the test invite provided there are no other complications."

That number of 22-35 comes out of nowhere. You seem to be unaware that the application handling of IRCC is unlike any other Canadian agency, unlike any other citizenship agency worldwide and driven by mechanisms and inefficiencies that are unique to that system.

Your assumption that ppl get a test invite as soon as their application has been checked is wrong. In fact many offices wait for the security check to go through, a process not handled by IRCC. Even the most diligent application with a common name will be stuck in security check for quite a while. Also even if your application has been checked: if the test centres are full there is no test invite.

That story could go on forever.

With the utmost respect to your knowledge in data science, you seem to be quite new to the citizenship process.

The spreadsheet speaks a clear language that 60/70 days is the average time.

I invite you to go to the February thread and tell people that average time from IP to Test is what you claim it is.

But I would be more than happy to meet here again in November or so, look at the may applicant data and see who was right, if you prefer.

In the end, although I like being right (as most people do), I wouldn't mind being wrong since who doesn't like shorter processing times, amirite?

 

[jangotrick]

With all due respect, apart from hiding everything behind many paragraphs of more fancy words than me, you are still basing your processing time estimate on a dataset of two April applications.

Since the coming into force of bill C-6, the average IP to TI time has consistently been in the range I mentioned. You can not possibly base any substantial assessment on the march and April data, and not really on the February data. That's conditional probability to the max.

You did in fact not explain what was wrong with my assessment of the data. Your post to me seems more like a case of "to a guy with a hammer, everything looks like a nail". That's why you want to introduce a plethora of additional assumptions for no good reason apart from the fact that that's what your day job is (and just to be clear: im not questioning that you are good at it. Neither am i questioning that sometimes, in the absence of enough hard data, educated guesswork is the way to go)

The most important mistake you make imho is that you use your knowledge from other processes involving applications. In particular, this:
"For those who file the applications diligently and the processing agent does not notice any errors or confusing dates, within 22-35 days, they should get the test invite provided there are no other complications."

That number of 22-35 comes out of nowhere. You seem to be unaware that the application handling of IRCC is unlike any other Canadian agency, unlike any other citizenship agency worldwide and driven by mechanisms and inefficiencies that are unique to that system.

Your assumption that ppl get a test invite as soon as their application has been checked is wrong. In fact many offices wait for the security check to go through, a process not handled by IRCC. Even the most diligent application with a common name will be stuck in security check for quite a while. Also even if your application has been checked: if the test centres are full there is no test invite.

That story could go on forever.

With the utmost respect to your knowledge in data science, you seem to be quite new to the citizenship process.

The spreadsheet speaks a clear language that 60/70 days is the average time.

I invite you to go to the February thread and tell people that average time from IP to Test is what you claim it is.

But I would be more than happy to meet here again in November or so, look at the may applicant data and see who was right, if you prefer.

In the end, although I like being right (as most people do), I wouldn't mind being wrong since who doesn't like shorter processing times, amirite?

Well I am definitely new to the Citizenship process but not new to the security process that you mention in your post. I know in great detail how the security screening process works, a handicap I may be getting from my day job. The turn around time for security screening is 3 weeks on the average. If processing has started in February and the applications are waiting for so long (till July) to get a test invite, these applicants are showing up as false positives or positives on the global security screen (Vulnerability and Criminal Checks). The only other reason a security screen would take longer than 3 weeks is when there is significant travel history in the passport during the eligibility period. Both these delays colors the processing time, but is more to do with the perceived risks by security scan system around determining inadmissibility of specific candidate (s) than the processing time under ideal conditions i.e routine positive security screen results.

By the way the number comes out of directly knowing people in my vicinity whose security screen cleared in 3 weeks and they immediately got a test invite provided all other application conditions were met. Not to turn this into a pissing contest, let us come back and chat around this in 2 months from today and see how things are processing. I will be happy to admit I am wrong if the trend shows up as it shows up right now. I do believe the trend will change swiftly to move the average towards my suggested timeline.

 

[spyfy]

Well I am definitely new to the Citizenship process but not new to the security process that you mention in your post. I know in great detail how the security screening process works, a handicap I may be getting from my day job. The turn around time for security screening is 3 weeks on the average. If processing has started in February and the applications are waiting for so long (till July) to get a test invite, these applicants are showing up as false positives or positives on the global security screen (Vulnerability and Criminal Checks). The only other reason a security screen would take longer than 3 weeks is when there is significant travel history in the passport during the eligibility period. Both these delays colors the processing time, but is more to do with the perceived risks by security scan system around determining inadmissibility of specific candidate (s) than the processing time under ideal conditions i.e routine positive security screen results.

By the way the number comes out of directly knowing people in my vicinity whose security screen cleared in 3 weeks and they immediately got a test invite provided all other application conditions were met. Not to turn this into a pissing contest, let us come back and chat around this in 2 months from today and see how things are processing. I will be happy to admit I am wrong if the trend shows up as it shows up right now. I do believe the trend will change swiftly to move the average towards my suggested timeline.

Yep as I said let's just see. And as previously mentioned: While I don't think you are right, I actually HOPE that you are

 

[jangotrick]

Yep as I said let's just see. And as previously mentioned: While I don't think you are right, I actually HOPE that you are

We can always catch up again on this. Just curious to know your status, when did your processing start. My details are in the signature.

 

[spyfy]

We can always catch up again on this. Just curious to know your status, when did your processing start. My details are in the signature.

I'm in process since June 15th. (I'm a March applicant).

 

[jangotrick]

I'm in process since June 15th. (I'm a March applicant).

Thank you for confirming. Have a good start to the week tommorow and I hope you get your test invite pretty soon !!!

 

[spyfy]

Thank you for confirming. Have a good start to the week tommorow and I hope you get your test invite pretty soon !!!

Thanks have a nice week, too!

 

[Raj2014]

Application Received by CIC: May 1 2018
Received File Number: July 13 2018

 

[sunnybh]

Congrats

Congratulations Sunny and wish you speedy processing. A big thank you for keeping this forum and the excel sheet updated.

Nice one Sunny, next one coming up soon. Study hard for your next info, August 25 or before, congrats

Thanks very much and best wishes to all

 

[sunnybh]

Application Received by CIC: May 1 2018
Received File Number: July 13 2018

Congrats, updated. Can I have other details please - App type, location, physical presence days and app sent date?