Mathematical approach to figure out future Draw

[Jagster20]

Hi guys, I took all draws data since beginning of January 2016 and tried to create a trend line using excel and from that I derived equation.
1,463 461
1,518 453
1,468 457
1,505 459
1,484 453
1,013 473
1,014 470
954 470
1,018 468
799 534
763 484
762 483
Equation is
CRS points =(0.0001*No.of Invitation*No.of Invitation) - (0.2934*No.of Invitation) + 662
I calculate if No of of Invitation is 1500 and CRS would be 446
1400= 448
1300= 450
1000=468
800=492
700=505 8)

 

[Jagster20]

Trend Line Has highest value of 1600 so after that it does not tell you accurately

 

[thejkhan]

You can only come up with these trends if you assume a uniform distribution of applicants, and sadly it's not uniform. For example, the jump in the number of applicants between 444 to 445 (1 point difference) maybe more than between 470 to 500 (30 point difference).

 

[LokiJr01]

From an applicant's perspective though, I don't really care how many ITA's they send out for as long as I'm included hehe

 

[scylla]

You can only come up with these trends if you assume a uniform distribution of applicants, and sadly it's not uniform. For example, the jump in the number of applicants between 444 to 445 (1 point difference) maybe more than between 470 to 500 (30 point difference).

Exactly. The mathematical approach results don't reflect reality since the distribution isn't uniform. For the mathematical approach to be of any use at all, the distribution that CIC published would need to be taken into consideration. Basic stats.

 

[Jagster20]

I was just trying to workout some data, just to have an idea.
Lets wait for next draw to see if it follows pattern or else this would be useless as you guys mentioned

 

[LokiJr01]

Math is always a welcome perspective..considering the growing frustration amongst people.

The concerning part here which will affect your analysis is that the pool of applicants in the 450 to 470 used to be smaller and manageable. But the longer CIC tightens the invite count, the more piled up that group will become to the point that the government better send out higher than average invites soon to normalise the situation back to where it was.

 

[aunty acid]

+1 to you jagster for your efforts.... though i dint follow anything..poor in math

 

[Mallikaasharmaa]

+1 to you jagster for your efforts.... though i dint follow anything..poor in math

+1

 

[Jagster20]

+1 to you jagster for your efforts.... though i dint follow anything..poor in math

THANK YOU

 

[Jagster20]

+1

THANK YOU

 

[Jagster20]

Hi guys, I took all draws data since beginning of January 2016 and tried to create a trend line using excel and from that I derived equation.
1,463 461
1,518 453
1,468 457
1,505 459
1,484 453
1,013 473
1,014 470
954 470
1,018 468
799 534
763 484
762 483
Equation is
CRS points =(0.0001*No.of Invitation*No.of Invitation) - (0.2934*No.of Invitation) + 662
I calculate if No of of Invitation is 1500 and CRS would be 446
1400= 448
1300= 450
1000=468
800=492
700=505 8)

See it follows pattern..752 invitation and 488 CRS points

 

[Alexios07]

See it follows pattern..752 invitation and 488 CRS points

Oh wow, who could have guessed the lesser the number of ITAs is, the greater the CRS are !
And btw, your equation is incorrect.