July draw predictions

[moscatojuices]

The only way

I'm well aware nobody cares (and i am not talking in terms of immigration qualities or whatever), I'm saying someone who has built a life in Canada for 5 years is more rooted in Canada compared to someone living in Germany with a job in Germany, home in Germany, friends in Germany looking to come to Canada to start a new life. I'm not gonna bother explaining the difference but its on you if you don't understand something as simple as this.

Yes I get what you're saying and I'm outright disagreeing with you. Yes I get it, when you spend 5 years in a country you're rooted into it. But economic immigration is a simple mathematic equation. High points and/or provincial nomination and/or one-time opportunities (like TR2PR) = ITA for PR. That's it.

Let me be blunt, neither have any connection to Canada. Simple. Unless you are a citizen or to a very very less degree PR, all the connection you think you have with Canada exists in your head only. You may be a bit better adaptable for which you get additional points alright but apart from that, its nothing else.

Agreed. I'm not even sure why it's relevant. The immigration streams are a simple mathematical equation:
Studied in Canada + Canadian work experience + Good English + Good French + in-demand NOC + young = good candidate on a quantifiable level.

 

[GandiBaat]

Agreed. I'm not even sure why it's relevant. The immigration streams are a simple mathematical equation:
Studied in Canada + Canadian work experience + Good English + Good French + in-demand NOC + young = good candidate on a quantifiable level.

To be honest, that part is not even controversial. No one is saying that a person with canadian experience is more adaptable to canada. IRCC also agrees with it and gives additional points in CSR score. Same for study in Canada. None of this is controversial at all and has been part and parcel of Canadian immigration since as far as I can remember.

Issue is people are stretching this to immigration application processing part. This is where it falls apart. Anyone who applies to IRCC is called a client of IRCC and they pay the same fee. After that they should get what is promised -- a decision in stipulated time. Any unfair change in that (favouring CEC over FSW) need to be called out. For IRCC all applicants are foreign national nationals and it treats it likewise.

 

[moscatojuices]

To be honest, that part is not even controversial. No one is saying that a person with canadian experience is more adaptable to canada. IRCC also agrees with it and gives additional points in CSR score. Same for study in Canada. None of this is controversial at all and has been part and parcel of Canadian immigration since as far as I can remember.

Issue is people are stretching this to immigration application processing part. This is where it falls apart. Anyone who applies to IRCC is called a client of IRCC and they pay the same fee. After that they should get what is promised -- a decision in stipulated time. Any unfair change in that (favouring CEC over FSW) need to be called out. For IRCC all applicants are foreign national nationals and it treats it likewise.

I think this is fair. Regardless of whether you're CEC or FSW, if you're paying a fee the same service standard should apply. Except the reality in immigration is that it doesn't. We also don't know how much harder it was to check someone's admissibility if they're outland and if that contributed to the delay of FSW processing.

Anyway let's get back to topic.

So we know 2 things:

1. NOC specific draws are coming
2. Per the CBC article, Fraser is looking at a new faster pathway for temp residents to get PR

We've speculated enough about #1. What do we think #2 could look like?

 

[tomtom104]

So we know 2 things:

1. NOC specific draws are coming
2. Per the CBC article, Fraser is looking at a new faster pathway for temp residents to get PR

We've speculated enough about #1. What do we think #2 could look like?

There would be a new pathway program, but no faster. Even if they want, I'm still doubting if they can.

 

[GandiBaat]

There would be a new pathway program, but no faster. Even if they want, I'm still doubting if they can.

It might just be TR2PR version 2.0

 

[moscatojuices]

It might just be TR2PR version 2.0

Correct me if I'm wrong the TR2PR was NOC-specific. There was the general unskilled worker stream (Uber drivers, cafe workers, bank tellers etc.), medical stream, Francophone stream etc.

What could this be in the context of skill requirements?

 

[aommnd]

Canada used to have a lot of tech draws, is there any hope for NOC 2173 - Software engineers and designers
for any CEC or combined draw soon?
The first draw might be on July 6th

 

[Deleted member 981115]

TR2PR was also for international students who graduated from a Canadian Institute and have a valid job offer

 

[moscatojuices]

I'm so confused right now, what value would a new program possibly add? If you think about it, often the best TR to PR pathway is actually PNP. If you basically come on an IEC visa or a PGWP, you get an opportunity to get your skilled work experience and get nominated by a province.

But Mr. Fraser seems like a very innovative/big idea fellow. Good god I would love it if there was a super easy new program with a 6 month processing time.

I'm annoyed that CEC candidates get their PR in six months and don't even have to hold onto their job after one-year of experience, whereas in turtle-pace non-EE PNP I have to make sure I do good at my job every day right till get my CoPR, which could be as long as 27 months. On top of that I have to make sure my NOC remains the same (which makes it so tricky if you get a promotion or a new opportunity) and my pay meets the median Canadian wage.

 

[powerssdd]

I have a guess about why IRCC wants to create a new pathway.
By now PNP program has consumed only 10K of the quota, while the total is more than 80K.
The same number for the next 2 years.
The gap is too big to fill.
Provincial governments simply don't have the ability to invite and process so many applicants. It is impossible.
So what about the 60K gap of this year, and that of the next two years?
This is what the new pathway is for. And this is why the minister has to hammer it out in 120 days, because otherwise next year's quota cannot be met.
The gap will only grow bigger.
I say this program will be out very soon.

 

[GandiBaat]

Correct me if I'm wrong the TR2PR was NOC-specific. There was the general unskilled worker stream (Uber drivers, cafe workers, bank tellers etc.), medical stream, Francophone stream etc.

What could this be in the context of skill requirements?

There was also a recent grad stream as well.

 

[moscatojuices]

I have a guess about why IRCC wants to create a new pathway.
By now PNP program has consumed only 10K of the quota, while the total is more than 80K.
The same number for the next 2 years.
The gap is too big to fill.
Provincial governments simply don't have the ability to invite and process so many applicants. It is impossible.
So what about the 60K gap of this year, and that of the next two years?
This is what the new pathway is for. And this is why the minister has to hammer it out in 120 days, because otherwise next year's quota cannot be met.
The gap will only grow bigger.
I say this program will be out very soon.

Is it filling the quota that's the problem or processing the quota that's the problem?

https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/irccs-application-backlog-grows-beyond-21-million-people-0525204.html - As at April there were over 70k provincial nominees in the backlog.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/service-declaration/service-standards.html - in 2020-21, IRCC only completed 8% of applications within its 11 months' service standard (for paper applicants)

This data suggests to me that there is plenty of demand and an inability to process it quickly enough. It's beyond a filthy joke that PNP applicants are waiting 11-15 months just for an AOR, and if you make one unintentional error you're screwed.

 

[powerssdd]

This is the motion that requires the new pathway: https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/89339/motions/11528727#mip-motion-text-collapsible-text

About occupations in demand, it says:

(f) specifically considering occupations and essential sectors that are underrepresented in current economic immigration programs, such as health services, caregivers, agriculture, manufacturing, service industry, trades, and transportation.

I think these are the occupations that will be invited in the occupation-specific draws.
No tech.

 

[Deleted member 981115]

I dont think the Tr to PR will be occupation specific draws as it was also mentioned in the mandate letter that the immigration minister has to create path for international students and tfw in Canada.

 

[powerssdd]

I dont think the Tr to PR will be occupation specific draws as it was also mentioned in the mandate letter that the immigration minister has to create path for international students and tfw in Canada.

The requirement could be that applicants graduated from a Canadian education institute in the last 2 years, and currently work in one of the listed occupations.