July draw predictions

[aommnd]

False. It is highly dependent upon who was your employer and what was your field.

My education and experience was completely from India and I had EXACTLY same position here.

I came on ICT work permit and converted it later into CEC based PR. This is very much a viable way and I will recommend people to take up this route if they can. You will skip job search pain in Canada this way and will start with your Canadian experience in your field from day 1.

Ok I see, everyone I knew complained about being downleveled because they were told "the experience is not equivalent" or whatever that means coming from places like India and Pakistan. Anyone coming from US or UK didnt seem to have a problem

 

[moscatojuices]

From what everyone is saying on this forum it looks like everyone has their own experience.

I'm from the first world and went from senior management to entry level, then back to mid-level.

There are people from India who transitioned laterally without losing any seniority. There are also people from India who couldn't find a job in their NOC ended up doing other things.

Anyway, let's all aim for a harmonious Canada and give people a fair go when we have the opportunity to give people good jobs!

 

[SatNight]

CEC has a very well defined eligibility criteria. It is not exactly "able to find a skilled work" but having atleast 1 year of skilled work experience in Canada in last 3 years (Plus few more conditions, refer to canada.ca website). After that you have to face CRS rank for EE.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility/canadian-experience-class.html

How is this not being able to find skilled work? The whole discussion started with the argument that some very educated candidates drive taxis in Canada. Which is true, but those are not eligible for CEC. You have to have skilled experience to be eligible.

 

[GandiBaat]

How is this not being able to find skilled work?

Eligibility is NOT about finding job. Simple. It has a very precise criteria. A person who gets transferred to Canada does not have to find a job in Canada and --given no other issues-- will become eligible for CEC in 1 year or so.

Again, securing a job in Canadian market is NOT the eligibility criteria for CEC. That criteria is in some programs like PNP but NOT in CEC.

You can come and work --with proper authorization-- in Canada for 1 year. Go back to your home nation and can even apply for CEC without being in Canada at that point.

You do not need job in hand to apply for CEC. You do need Canadian skilled work experience on a legal work authorization. How so ever you got it --during say a ICT work, or client side work or any other way-- does not matter.

 

[GandiBaat]

From what everyone is saying on this forum it looks like everyone has their own experience.

I'm from the first world and went from senior management to entry level, then back to mid-level.

There are people from India who transitioned laterally without losing any seniority. There are also people from India who couldn't find a job in their NOC ended up doing other things.

Anyway, let's all aim for a harmonious Canada and give people a fair go when we have the opportunity to give people good jobs!

The basic idea is what brought you in Canada. Your job or your own wish. If you came here with your job, you skip early struggle. If you came on your own, you have to make your own roads. Also, it is highly dependent upon employers and field.

I have almost exclusively worked for US and British big corporates. This means, really, I am not working for true blue Canadian small-medium sized companies. My first job in Canada was in an international team having 3 Spaniards, one Preuvian, one Austrian, One Vietnamese, Two Ukrainians and Two Russians. No Canadian PR or citizen. So yes, if you choose your employers carefully you can reterive your worth of experience in the past. A Canadian company may not be keen on experience outside Canada but an American company with significant operations in Canada will be more than happy to consider your past experiences with similar American companies elsewhere in the world.

 

[SatNight]

Eligibility is NOT about finding job. Simple. It has a very precise criteria. A person who gets transferred to Canada does not have to find a job in Canada and --given no other issues-- will become eligible for CEC in 1 year or so.

Again, securing a job in Canadian market is NOT the eligibility criteria for CEC. That criteria is in some programs like PNP but NOT in CEC.

You can come and work --with proper authorization-- in Canada for 1 year. Go back to your home nation and can even apply for CEC without being in Canada at that point.

You do not need job in hand to apply for CEC. You do need Canadian skilled work experience on a legal work authorization. How so ever you got it --during say a ICT work, or client side work or any other way-- does not matter.

Fine, but even ignoring that most CEC candidates find a skilled job on their own, the point is that this is not about taxi drivers.

Not to mention that many CEC candidates keep working during the application and actively have a job. The rules over what counts as a "job offer" are very strict and many CEC candidates do not fit that, even though they have a skilled job at the time of application and will continue to have it in the future.

I am positive that if CEC is suddenly heavily NOC focused, it would make many people lose their jobs, which is counter-productive to what they want to achieve with immigration (get people to work in skilled occupations). I really don't understand why they would make CEC candidates who are currently working in skilled jobs ineligible. They are in Canada and working in skilled jobs already.

 

[GandiBaat]

Not to mention that many CEC candidates keep working during the application and actively have a job. The rules over what counts as a "job offer" are very strict and many CEC candidates do not fit that, even though they have a skilled job at the time of application and will continue to have it in the future.

To the best of my knowledge, for CEC experience counts and not job offer. I also personally did NOT use my job offer in Canada for my CEC application --my employer gave me that job offer letter stapled with my experience letter for immigration purposes. I just did not want to notify IRCC if I had to change a job in between application. So I left out the job offer altogether, forfeiting all the points for job offer. That being said during my time --Aug 2021 draw, points were down to 400-440.

I am positive that if CEC is suddenly heavily NOC focused, it would make many people lose their jobs, which is counter-productive to what they want to achieve with immigration (get people to work in skilled occupations). I really don't understand why they would make CEC candidates who are currently working in skilled jobs ineligible. They are in Canada and working in skilled jobs already.

There are a lot of speculations. We do not know what the final structure of draws will look like. Parliament has given minister power to make NOC draws. Now, I doubt, people will lose jobs because of NOC draws. It is likely some folks will abandon their jobs because they feel that they will never be able to make into an invitation round.

You must understand CEC does not really need an active job. If someone has an experience as a cook for 1 year in Canada, he is likely eligibile for CEC even if he or she is not in Canada currently. It will come down to this : which NOCs have highest vacancy rates and urgency. Those will get priority likely.

Now, lately, for some reason, Minister and IRCC has shown less interest in what they call "High Human Capital" individuals and more inclination towards "Essential Workers". It was never said aloud but there were signs in ATIP disclosures. So I expect less Phds, Engineers and more general workers. There can be exceptions though. Doctors and nurses come to mind.

 

[SatNight]

@GandiBaat I understand all of that, and I know the rules. My wife is a CEC candidate so I need to know all of this. I know that one does not have to have a job at the moment to be eligible, nor to be in Canada, nor to have acquired the job through their own effort. Still, it is true that so many (I believe majority) of CEC candidates got their jobs through their own effort. Also, while CEC is not just for those with Canadian education, this is a common way to become a CEC candidate.

But I went even further than this and say that many CEC candidates currently hold a skilled employment in Canada. I am not sure what the percentage is, but I know many people in this situation. And if CEC is suddenly NOC specific, that would make many of them ineligible for PR. CEC candidates have work permits that are valid only for a few years, typically, and it is not realistic for most of them to suddenly switch to a different employment. Especially since we are talking about skilled jobs. You cannot simply change a job if you do not have qualifications.

This situation would lead to many CEC candidates having to go back to their countries and leave their jobs. Which will create gaps in skilled employment that prospective immigrants cannot fill, because those are not specified in the NOC arrangement. So, only Canadians would be able to fill those jobs. Which can create a mess in many different ways.

I simply do not understand why someone working in Canada in a skilled job would be chased away, so to speak, without a chance for a PR. Let's also remember that Canada is an attractive destination for international students in part because of the PGWP and the possibility to get a PR that way. If this possibility is cut, then that's not good for the Canadian economy either.

Yes, I sound invested because I am in this situation but I wish that we had more transparency over how this whole system would look. I wish they told us. They are hinting that French skills would be important, so that might be another path, and we need to see about it. Perhaps there is something important in terms of CEC and international graduates.

 

[SatNight]

Immigration minister says he's working on a faster path to permanence for temporary residents

"Fraser said the new program won't be identical to the old one. He said he's working under a tight 120-day timeline established in a motion approved by the Commons last month.

"That actually puts me on a clock to come up with a framework to establish this new permanent residency pathway, not just for international students, but also for temporary foreign workers," he said.

"We're in the depths of planning the policy so we can have a policy that's not driven by a need to respond urgently in the face of an emergency, but actually to have a permanent pathway that provides a clear path for those seeking permanent residency who can enter Canada."

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/sean-fraser-immigration-temporary-permanent-residency-1.6484505

 

[aommnd]

Immigration minister says he's working on a faster path to permanence for temporary residents

"Fraser said the new program won't be identical to the old one. He said he's working under a tight 120-day timeline established in a motion approved by the Commons last month.

"That actually puts me on a clock to come up with a framework to establish this new permanent residency pathway, not just for international students, but also for temporary foreign workers," he said.

"We're in the depths of planning the policy so we can have a policy that's not driven by a need to respond urgently in the face of an emergency, but actually to have a permanent pathway that provides a clear path for those seeking permanent residency who can enter Canada."

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/sean-fraser-immigration-temporary-permanent-residency-1.6484505

Interesting to see what it will be like.
Alternatively, they could just simply do CEC specific draws which should cover most ppl that will apply to that new pathway anyway

 

[moscatojuices]

Interesting to see what it will be like.
Alternatively, they could just simply do CEC specific draws which should cover most ppl that will apply to that new pathway anyway

That's if they are only looking for skilled immigrants, so essential workers like fast food workers, cleaners, tourism staff wouldn't make the cut. This is a big problem in the economy right now, I've never seen restaurants close before just because they couldn't find staff. In our town in Sask, if the chef of the local Asian restaurant is sick, it's game over. The restaurant closed for weeks when he got COVID. They can't even find a replacement.

 

[GandiBaat]

But I went even further than this and say that many CEC candidates currently hold a skilled employment in Canada. I am not sure what the percentage is, but I know many people in this situation. And if CEC is suddenly NOC specific, that would make many of them ineligible for PR. CEC candidates have work permits that are valid only for a few years, typically, and it is not realistic for most of them to suddenly switch to a different employment. Especially since we are talking about skilled jobs. You cannot simply change a job if you do not have qualifications.

To be honest, my crystal ball is only as bright as yours. I do not know what will exactly happen but we have facts.

1. Canada has immigration levels already planned. They are not going to change. Not for 2022. Period! That means, only these many economic immigrants.

2. We saw in the ATIPs back in early 2022 that IRCC realizes a majority of people in the pool who will get invitation in 2022 --if any-- are "High Human Capital" people. They remarked how these folks are very homogenous. (

). It points to their intentions to bypass this bunch with a NOC specific rounds and possibly different set of individuals will be given preferene even if they had less score and possibly no job in Canada.

3. We have legislation in place to support NoC based rounds.

4. Many businesses in Canada are suffering labour shortage of low skilled employees.

All of this points to one single thing : They want to address labour shortage in specific NOCs or french proficiency, irrespective of skill level and irrespective of human capital of applicants. Now, there are rumors on continuation of a new pathway called TR2PR. This new pathway, if it becomes a permanent fixture to canadian immigration will provide a path to those who are in canada with a job and want to settle.

 

[powerssdd]

Immigration minister says he's working on a faster path to permanence for temporary residents

"Fraser said the new program won't be identical to the old one. He said he's working under a tight 120-day timeline established in a motion approved by the Commons last month.

"That actually puts me on a clock to come up with a framework to establish this new permanent residency pathway, not just for international students, but also for temporary foreign workers," he said.

"We're in the depths of planning the policy so we can have a policy that's not driven by a need to respond urgently in the face of an emergency, but actually to have a permanent pathway that provides a clear path for those seeking permanent residency who can enter Canada."

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/sean-fraser-immigration-temporary-permanent-residency-1.6484505

Thank you so much for sharing this.

This is the real good news.

And this is the new pathway mentioned in the mandate letter.

The occupation-specific EE draws is not.

Some outland FSW applicants will be furious once again...
No matter how much they devalue Canadian work experience and education, IRCC's policies indicate the other way around.
Period.

I just hope this hostility against inland applicants can end.

 

[SatNight]

@GandiBaat Oh, of course they can do whatever they want. And true, Canada needs immigrants from NOC C and D occupations (or however they will be called after the introduction of the TEER system). I just never thought that this would be part of CEC. Simply because CEC is supposed to be about skilled jobs by default.

On the other hand, it is true that we have zero info on how this whole thing might affect CEC candidates. Maybe it will not be NOC based, or NOC stuff will be handled in a different way, etc. There is also the issue of this new TR to PR path and how that would fit into the whole thing.

@powerssdd Yes, that is the policy mentioned in the mandate letter. I am just unsure how it fits into the whole thing. They mention international students and graduates, but I remember how poorly it was handled last time (at least when it comes to international graduates). I do hope there will be a pathwaay for French speakers, since my wife is bilingual.

As for FSW people... Well, I understand that they are angry but they cannot minimize the importance of Canadian work experience. It's simply something that IRCC and Canadian employers have recognized as important. Not to say that FSW candidates are not strong, but I disagree with their idea of a "typical CEC candidate" as someone who completed a bad university with GPA 2.5. Even those people need a year of skilled experience in Canada to be eligible for CEC. So the whole argument is bad. But it's this system making people angry and desperate, and it makes people turn on each other, instead to criticize the system and its lack of transparency.

 

[GandiBaat]

As for FSW people... Well, I understand that they are angry but they cannot minimize the importance of Canadian work experience. It's simply something that IRCC and Canadian employers have recognized as important. Not to say that FSW candidates are not strong, but I disagree with their idea of a "typical CEC candidate" as someone who completed a bad university with GPA 2.5. Even those people need a year of skilled experience in Canada to be eligible for CEC. So the whole argument is bad. But it's this system making people angry and desperate, and it makes people turn on each other, instead to criticize the system and its lack of transparency.

The problem many FSW folks face (I did my PR on CEC) is not that Canada does not value profile, its simply that Canada has been a dick with them in terms of processing their application. They face a processing time of 20 months or may be more. Mine got processed in less than 5 months (late sept to late feb) even with interruptions like RCMP certificate. Secondly, IRCC made the mess of processing time by a stupid action in early 2021 by HUGE CEC only draws and TR2PR channel, which was totally un-needed and absolutely unfair to FSW applicants. Lastly, even those FSW applicants who got their PPRs had to re-do their medicals just because Canada could not land them in time. In 2021 and till date, medical exam processing is a huge mess with delays. Canada could have simply lowered the burden by giving a "re-do lite" version of medical exam by checking only TB and venereal diseases but well... Canadian bureaucrats are not known for their smarts till their own posteriors are on line.