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July draw predictions

lilyt

Full Member
Feb 18, 2022
40
23
1. it could happen in July. That is very possible. It doesn't necessarily take 8 - 9 months to get it passed as it is not a highly controversial topic.
I'm sorry, how is this not a controversial topic? This is a major change to their immigration system, basically destroying what EE has been since the beginning. It is so controversial that even CIC News, IRCC's BFF and main enabler, published an article about it. What is a person with 480+ score supposed to do if they happen not to be a nurse?
 

powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
I'm sorry, how is this not a controversial topic? This is a major change to their immigration system, basically destroying what EE has been since the beginning. It is so controversial that even CIC News, IRCC's BFF and main enabler, published an article about it. What is a person with 480+ score supposed to do if they happen not to be a nurse?
1. According to https://www.cicnews.com/2022/06/canada-wants-to-change-express-entry-a-look-at-the-pros-and-cons-0625842.html#gs.2mmnf5, it will be passed soon, so that is a side evidence that it is not highly controversial.

2. We considering it controversial doesn't mean it really is. We are minority and don't have political rights in this country. For example, they have suspended CEC for 10 months, during which lots of applicants, including myself, live in anxiety every day. Is there anything more controversial than that in this field from our POV? No, but I still don't see anything has been done about that. There was a protest against that about one month ago, but there were only 15 ppl there. Other topics, like COVID lockdown or vaccine mandate, can acttract 5000 ppl to rally on a weekly basis. You tell me which is controversial which is not.

3. I agree that it is not good news, unless you are a nurse or speak French. A lot of quotas will be consumed by a small portion of applicants, and the CRS requirement will keep going up for the majority, while it is already extremely high due to the 19 months suspension of FSW and 10 months suspension of CEC.

I am a coder but I am not optimistic at all, though it is on almost all in-demand occupation lists.
I think the occupation draws will be for French speakers and workers in health care, argriculture, etc only.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
I agree that it doesn't have to be controversial for them just because it is for us, but I really thought this would take some time. Lawyers and consultants keep saying that it would take some time. So this CIC news was really surprising.

They still claim they would do consultations with the industry and experts , so I feel there is a chance that it's not introduced in July. But I fear they will rush this out and in a few years there will be a need to correct it. Just like they rushed TR to PR and created backlogs and similar problems.

Not sure what to say. My wife (principal applicant) has French. That's all I can think of, because I am not sure what will be seen as a desirable NOC code. They keep mentioning health and transportation, although I do think tech NOCs will also have a chance. Her NOC is not among those (she is university instructor) so not sure what to say.

I do hope they won't introduce this system until later this year, perhaps during NOC revamp.

We have 483 points currently. I am preparing for an English exam to boost this score further before July. Not sure what to say, or what to suggest to people, because we still have no idea how this whole NOC system might look. Which is irresponsible on their part, if I may say so, especially at this point, around a month before the draws resume.
 

aommnd

Star Member
Apr 6, 2022
117
25
1. According to https://www.cicnews.com/2022/06/canada-wants-to-change-express-entry-a-look-at-the-pros-and-cons-0625842.html#gs.2mmnf5, it will be passed soon, so that is a side evidence that it is not highly controversial.

2. We considering it controversial doesn't mean it really is. We are minority and don't have political rights in this country. For example, they have suspended CEC for 10 months, during which lots of applicants, including myself, live in anxiety every day. Is there anything more controversial than that in this field from our POV? No, but I still don't see anything has been done about that. There was a protest against that about one month ago, but there were only 15 ppl there. Other topics, like COVID lockdown or vaccine mandate, can acttract 5000 ppl to rally on a weekly basis. You tell me which is controversial which is not.

3. I agree that it is not good news, unless you are a nurse or speak French. A lot of quotas will be consumed by a small portion of applicants, and the CRS requirement will keep going up for the majority, while it is already extremely high due to the 19 months suspension of FSW and 10 months suspension of CEC.

I am a coder but I am not optimistic at all, though it is on almost all in-demand occupation lists.
I think the occupation draws will be for French speakers and workers in health care, argriculture, etc only.
I am also a coder NOC 2173, how would this impact us?
 

lilyt

Full Member
Feb 18, 2022
40
23
A lot of quotas will be consumed by a small portion of applicants, and the CRS requirement will keep going up for the majority
Do you think they will still do general draws?

I mean they could at the very least wait with their occupation draws for a little to clear out 490+ applicants
 
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Takita

Hero Member
May 12, 2021
458
111
on a side note, now that the Ontario General Elections have bee done. What are chances of OINP Tech Draw from now until Express Entry draws resume anyone think?
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
Do you think they will still do general draws?

I mean they could at the very least wait with their occupation draws for a little to clear out 490+ applicants
Yes, there are relatively few applicants who can ever reach those points so it would be really bad to screw them over. Now, and honestly, in general, too. CRS points are not ideal, but they were recognized as a good measure of a candidate's ability to succeed in Canada. I am all for giving a chance to those with lower points, too, but for people with 490+ to not even have a chance because of NOC is really unfair (and stupid). Simply because it was shown that those are people with a high human capital.
 
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raghavgrover

Star Member
Jul 26, 2019
186
57
My estimation is that CRS will drop to 480 by the middle of Sep.

There are 18,179 ppl in the pool whose CRS is above 480.

IRCC needs to invite 75,750 ppl from July 2022 to June 2023, so 75750 / 52 weeks (1 year) = 1,456 / per week, which is 2,913 per 2 weeks, aka, 2,913 per draw.

18179 / 2,913 = 6.24.

It takes 6.24 draws to reach CRS 480.

If the first draw is July 7th, the 6th draw is Sep 15th.

Of course more ppl will enter the pool, but not many with CRS higher than 480.

Besides, for the occupation-specific draw:
1. it could happen in July. That is very possible. It doesn't necessarily take 8 - 9 months to get it passed as it is not a highly controversial topic.
2. It will be for inland applicants, as per the mandate letter.

Those are my speculations.
You’re leaving one part that the qouta for 2022 admissions for FHS was around 52000 and they had 72000 in the backlog in January 2022 so i think they only need to select 55k? Also the pool will keep on changing, new graduates etc , new profiles etc, very difficult to predict the CRS cut off
 

raghavgrover

Star Member
Jul 26, 2019
186
57
I can download experience letter myself with a click of a button including everything needed as it's automated in our company, but the letter won't include "will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR", so will have to request letter manually.

I complete my 1yr experience in first week of July.

Does the letter need to be dated after completing 1yr experience or it doesn't matter?
Does the letter need to be issued by HR or letter from my manager (Director level + Hiring Manager) on company letter head would work?

I'm looking for draft/template to provide to my employer
It needs to be on a company letter head either signed by company HR or your supervisor, ircc website mentions what should be in the letter. The letter can be issued at any time but when you submit to ircc it should be recent ~ less than one year old
 

powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
You’re leaving one part that the qouta for 2022 admissions for FHS was around 52000 and they had 72000 in the backlog in January 2022 so i think they only need to select 55k? Also the pool will keep on changing, new graduates etc , new profiles etc, very difficult to predict the CRS cut off
It no longer matters.
According to the latest memo, the volume of draws will be consistent with those in pre-pandemic time, which is at least 3000/draw I guess.
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
They don't need to select anyone for this year. The draws are for the next year, because people selected from July onward will land in 2023. The number of people they want to admit in 2023 is 75k.
 

Takita

Hero Member
May 12, 2021
458
111
It needs to be on a company letter head either signed by company HR or your supervisor, ircc website mentions what should be in the letter. The letter can be issued at any time but when you submit to ircc it should be recent ~ less than one year old
Thanks.

Can you check PM?

I'm looking for sample letter so I can get it from my manager.
 

hello2020

Star Member
Oct 8, 2019
193
28
It looks like a bunch of those being on a soon expired LMIA WP having a score between 400-450 could not be selected under the CEC coz lowball separate CEC draws will not be held anymore. So they will probably leave the country, unfortunately. Not too many choices for those who can't simply extend their WP - look already now for PNP or try to find a new LMIA offer if you want to stay. This is very sad, but 490+ score is too much even for most people with 1-year Canadian work experience.
 

Sayeda Malik

Full Member
Oct 2, 2021
20
0
I have a question regarding the draw. I have completed my 1 year of Canadian experience in May 2022. I created my express entry profile and submitted it. Other than the Canadian work experience, i also have work experience outside of Canada for 5 years (NOC A) which also i showed in my profile. I got 50 point for foreign work experience and my total CRS score is 484. After submitting my profile, it showed that i met the eligibility of CEC but didnt met the eligibility for FSW. As i have work experience outside of Canada, I understand I should also met the eligibility for FSW. I am not sure if I have done any mistake. In this situation, to get ITA, does the draw has to be CEC specific?