Hi MI5 friends,
The following is an excerpt from Looking Ahead: A 10 year outlook for the Canadian Labor market (2008- 2017), which I went through last year when I was as curious & trying to know if 1122 would make it on the list. The report is very extensive you can read it at http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/l.3bd.2t.1ilshtml @ -eng.jsp?lid=1&fid=1&lang=en ( don't leave spaces ) , may be you'll find it helpful. None of us know what Kenney's resources will come up this year with regards to FSW.
An occupation is considered to be in a shortage situation if i) it has shown signs of shortage in recent years as well as an excess demand (job openings exceeding job seekers) over the next ten years or if ii) job openings substantially exceed job seekers over the next ten years even if this occupation has not shown signs of shortage in recent years. The size of the imbalance must also be significant compared with the size of the occupation.
The following table lists the three- and four-digit NOC occupations47 (with at least 10,000 workers) showing signs of shortage. These occupations represented 9.3% of total employment in 2007.
Occupational Group Occupations Showing Signs of Shortages Non-student Employment 2007 (000s)
Business, finance and administration Legislators and senior management (NOC 001) 83.2
Human resources managers (NOC 0112) 30.8
Human resources and business service professionals (NOC 112) 154.2
Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems (NOC 021) 69.5
Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety (NOC 2263) 22.7
Health Managers in health care (NOC 0311) 23.7
Physicians, dentists and veterinarians (NOC 311) 97.8
Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals (NOC 312) 14.8
Pharmacists (NOC 3131) 25.0
Therapy and assessment professionals (NOC 314) such as Physiotherapists and Occupational therapists 48.9
Nurse supervisors and registered nurses (NOC 315) 262.1
Medical radiation technologists (NOC 3215) 18.0
Technical occupations in dental health care (NOC 322) 31.2
Other technical occupations in health care (except dental) (NOC 323), such as Registered nursing assistants and Ambulance attendants 122.9
Social science, education, government service and religion Managers in public administration (NOC 041) 29.5
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Facility operation and maintenance managers (NOC 072) 38.6
Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers (NOC 721) such as in Electrical trades and in Mechanic trades 217.9
Industrial electricians (NOC 7242) 28.3
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (NOC 7312) 53.8
Occupations specific to primary industry Supervisors, mining, oil and gas (NOC 822) 26.7
Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers (NOC 823) 42.7
Total 1,442.3
It is important to highlight two points. First, the list only includes occupations usually requiring postsecondary education or management occupations. Secondly, data on unemployment and wages from recent years suggest that all occupations on this list are already in a shortage situation. What our projection indicates is that these shortage conditions will continue over the next ten years.
Not surprisingly, a large number of occupations showing signs of shortage at the national level are found in the health sector. Pressures are particularly acute for physicians, pharmacists, nursing sciences professionals and health care directors. Other health occupations are also showing signs of shortage, such as therapy and assessment professionals, and medical radiation technologists. Growth in demand for those occupations has been strong, due to the rising needs associated with population aging and increases in government funding for health care. On the other hand, supply growth in many of these occupations has been relatively weak. In some areas, the lack of supply may reflect the effects of earlier deficit control decisions (including accelerated retirements) and foreign-credential recognition issues, limiting supply from immigration.
Management occupations (e.g. senior management, human resources managers and public service directors) are considered in shortage largely as a result of the demand associated with the high levels of retirement among workers who are usually at a more advanced stage in their career. For those occupations, supply comes mainly from career advancement (vertical mobility) ? since school leavers and recent immigrants do not have enough experience in the Canadian labour market to fill these positions. Furthermore, employers are placing greater emphasis on recruiting and retaining quality employees to handle increasingly complex jobs in our economy, resulting in an excess demand for human resources professionals.
