Jan 27th draw crs 457

[bestofluck]

1468 ITAs.

This draw confirms a few things.

1. CIC is definitely looking at increasing the number of invitations per month. Could go up from 3000 ITAs to 5000-6000. That is very good news.

2. The bad news is that the score couldn't drop below 450 (it went up by 4 points compared with the last draw, in fact) even when CIC picked up 4500 applicants in Jan '16.

3. If even 3 draws in a month cannot bring the cutoff below 453, that indicates a very healthy pool composition possibly because of PNs. Expect higher PN action in 2016 compared to 2015. Which is more bad news for sub-450 members.

4. The algorithm for draws is more-or-less confirmed. Watch the pool each week on a random day (Friday in '15 and Wednesday in '16) and decide the draw cutoff at a score where you get ~1500 applicants. Repeat 2/3/4 times depending on the number of ITAs/month target (3000/4500/6000).

5. The cutoff did not fall to 456 because there were presumably more than 132 people at that score and that would have pushed the ITAs to 1600+. CIC clearly wants to remain south of 1500 ITAs per draw - could be an indicator of their manpower availability.

It is just because of provincial nominations the\at scores dint go below 454 . Now as there are no nominations from other than OINP the scores will go down

 

[Han]

It is just because of provincial nominations the\at scores dint go below 454 . Now as there are no nominations from other than OINP the scores woll go down

Don't argue/fight. We will see in future what happens.

 

[bhavin_business]

1468 ITAs.

This draw confirms a few things.

1. CIC is definitely looking at increasing the number of invitations per month. Could go up from 3000 ITAs to 5000-6000. That is very good news.

2. The bad news is that the score couldn't drop below 450 (it went up by 4 points compared with the last draw, in fact) even when CIC picked up 4500 applicants in Jan '16.

3. If even 3 draws in a month cannot bring the cutoff below 453, that indicates a very healthy pool composition possibly because of PNs. Expect higher PN action in 2016 compared to 2015. Which is more bad news for sub-450 members.

4. The algorithm for draws is more-or-less confirmed. Watch the pool each week on a random day (Friday in '15 and Wednesday in '16) and decide the draw cutoff at a score where you get ~1500 applicants. Repeat 2/3/4 times depending on the number of ITAs/month target (3000/4500/6000).

5. The cutoff did not fall to 456 because there were presumably more than 132 people at that score and that would have pushed the ITAs to 1600+. CIC clearly wants to remain south of 1500 ITAs per draw - could be an indicator of their manpower availability.

Awesome summary. Truly this is the case. 1500 ITA is the primary key here, so now it becomes highly unlikely for points to drop a lot.
Unless there are very few candidates above 450.

People sitting at each point below 450 is huge, which guides ITA's upwards of 1500.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Nice, didn't understand number 4 though!
I think since there were some rejections, now people are a little bit more cautious compared to early months in 2015. I think more people might decline invitations, and wait for the next draw. It is just a guess!

Number 4 is about the internal algorithm at CIC. 450 isn't important and it never was. 1500 ITAs/draw is the key number. Or 3000/4500/6000 depending on the number of draws/month.

What is significant about this draw is that this is the 1st time ever that CIC gave out 4500 ITAs per month. And the cutoff never fell below 453.

 

[mira.r]

If the cut-off remains at this number then it's for people like me who lose out on experience.
My score 450 points
Last draw 453
Today's draw 457

So close yet so far :'( :'(

 

[purplesnow]

1, I gave you the link which says they would increase number of invitations.

2. Wrong the scores will drop eventually and in near future because the total invitations will increase from 3000 to 5000

3. This is not healthy competitions its only because last 2 months the scores were high you will definitely see a decrease which will prove you wrong like today and yesterday


In short

the draw confirms only one thing that you are proved wrong twice in 2 days.

you said there would be no more draws in January today itself.
yesterday u dint have the source to prove only one PCC is required for one country and you were proved wrong.

why so angry?

2 - we have no positive confirmation from CIC that the scores will drop. Speculating is fine, but presenting it as definitive is misleading. they might drop if they increase invites, or CIC might be maintaining the score at a level and have decided they'll do a draw when they have roughly 1500 people above it. that would still ensure they invite more people and keep the points level high - as we've seen this month.

3 - Composition and competition are not the same word. I'm not really sure what point you're making but it doesn't make any sense in the context of the point Asivad made.

I saw the comment Asivad made regarding no more draws in January. What he/she said was none were expected, not that none would happen. And going on the pattern we've had to date of 2 draws per month, it was reasonable to suggest that no more were expected in January.

I've no idea what argument you've been having about PCC's, but we do need to provide one for every country you spent 6 months in over the age of 18, bar Canada as CIC will do their own background check and request one if they need one from you at a later point.

 

[polcoin]

If the cut-off remains at this number then it's for people like me who lose out on experience.
My score 450 points
Last draw 453
Today's draw 457

So close yet so far :'( :'(

So far we have seen that ITAs are given to people with 450 and above scores. But since they are only targetting ~1500 ITAs getting a 450 again will take its time but will happen.

 

[nshakelly]

Number 4 is about the internal algorithm at CIC. 450 isn't important and it never was. 1500 ITAs/draw is the key number. Or 3000/4500/6000 depending on the number of draws/month.

What is significant about this draw is that this is the 1st time ever that CIC gave out 4500 ITAs per month. And the cutoff never fell below 453.

How long does it take for the invite to appear in the EE profile?? I received a ghost email mentioning of an update. But do not see any change in the profile status nor an invite notice under the "Message" section

 

[JoacRy]

@nshakelly, nothing in mine yet. Its does say that canadiates who occupy or have the score after 13:44:40 UTC time.

Maybe we have to wait till this time.

 

[nshakelly]

@nshakelly, nothing in mine yet. Its does say that canadiates who occupy or have the score after 13:44:40 UTC time.

Maybe we have to wait till this time.

Thanks for confirming JoacRy..I hope you still remember our deal of doing to the submission simultaneously with coordination

I will send you a message in your inbox in some time. Is that ok?

 

[AnnaBG]

I don't see how people are expecting to see the cutoff drop below 450 points much if even it does..

This pool is not static. Many people enter the pool on daily bases or increase their score all the time to meet the crs score that would suffice.

No one could possibly think that there is just a certain number of people who are in the pool and once they receive ITA the score will drop down.... From what I read thought it looks like some folks do thinks so.

 

[Charli123]

Hey Guys, I didn't receive the ITA though I am on 1017. any idea what is the issue?

 

[JoacRy]

@nshakelly, no problem. Let's help each other out throughout this process. We've waited too long to get it wrong now.

Invisible high five

 

[gulhayo_a]

Hi everyone! Got my ITA today! Thank for everyone for helping out.
They havent requested medicals yet? at what stage do they ask it?

 

[polcoin]

Hi everyone! Got my ITA today! Thank for everyone for helping out.
They havent requested medicals yet? at what stage do they ask it?

With a copy of ita letter you can go ahead with upfront medical test.