You might IF IRCC asks for one. IRCC can ask for it.
Longer Explanation For Clarification:
Police clearances have nothing to do with evaluating the applicant's actual physical presence and are NOT connected to the "eligibility period" (which is the five years preceding the date the application is made), EVEN though the relevant time periods overlap.
Police clearances are about verifying the applicant has NO prohibitions based on criminal charges in other countries. The relevant time period during which there must be no criminal charges or convictions constituting a prohibition includes:
-- the FOUR years preceding the date the application is made (overlapping but not the same as the five year eligibility period), and
-- while the citizenship application is pending, right up to day the oath is taken
We do not see many applicants report getting a request for a police clearance apart from those applicants who need to submit a clearance WITH the application (based on checking the [Yes] box in response to the question about spending 183 or more days in a row in another country in
"the past four (4) years," which is item 10.b) in the 10-2020 version of CIT 0002).
But as
@RJ2020 noted, IRCC can ask for a clearance at any time during the processing of the citizenship application.
Since not a lot of applicants live abroad after applying for citizenship (despite a remarkable, somewhat surprising number who do, as reflected in questions posed in this forum), we do not have a sufficient sample to make inferences about the chances of getting a request for a police clearance due to living abroad after applying.
But to be clear, IRCC can request a police clearance and
that can be about verifying no criminal charges abroad AFTER the date of applying . . . it is NOT limited to the eligibility period prior to applying.
For reference, see prohibition prescribed by Citizenship Act 22(3) here:
https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-29/page-7.html#docCont
Note that 22(3)(a) describes the prohibition based on offences outside Canada during "
the four-year period immediately before" the application is made, and 22(3)(b) describes the prohibition based on offences outside Canada during "
the period beginning on the date of the person’s application and ending on the date that he or she would otherwise be granted citizenship or take the oath of citizenship."