How are processing times assessed?

[scos]

For anyone who has checked the CIC site recently has seen an increase to all the VO's of 2-3 months in processing time. This has made me wonder about the way the times are calculated. The time is a lagging indicator as it is based on historical data. Also I have noticed that the ECAS information has the application receipt time as being the same time as in phase 1 of the application. So that leads to my question...

Is this 2-3 month increase in 2nd phase processing actually just the 2-3 month 1st phase delay we have just passed and is only now showing in the phase 2 statistics? Phase 1 went from 1 month to almost 4 months at one point, and has now returned to about 1 month. So is this increase a REAL increase in processing times in the VOs due to restructuring in all the VO's, or is it just a statistical anomaly due to the restructuring in the local processing centers?

If it is the first one, then we are all in for a long wait. If it is the latter, then we don't need to worry.

Any ideas?

 

[Luckyman]

Correct, the processing times are based on historical data, and in this case the previous 12 months.

There are many factors that affect this number, one of which is the re-structure of immigration departments and thus the process as well.... which trickles from stage 1 to completion.

You do make a good point though......with the factor of stage 1 times....even though the website clearly states that the times are based on VO receiving the application, I haven't read of too many Manila applications that go to 11 months....and especially now that Harper government has implemented stage 2 of the new and improved family reunification policy, I'd assume the bulk of the increase across the board is directly related to re-structure in the previous 12 months and the facts should state the next years "target" of drastically reduced timelines.

Also note that times are assessed on an average basis for all applications and, in no way, reflect the vast majority....

I encourage you to download this spreadsheet and play with the filter selections for different scenarios to enlighten your thoughts:
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2tTNwl-ffNGVDY0TTZtX055b1U

Notice the percentage of approved applications, and the actual timeline percentages....sure makes me feel optimistic.

Cheers!

 

[R151NG5UN]

For anyone who has checked the CIC site recently has seen an increase to all the VO's of 2-3 months in processing time. This has made me wonder about the way the times are calculated. The time is a lagging indicator as it is based on historical data. Also I have noticed that the ECAS information has the application receipt time as being the same time as in phase 1 of the application. So that leads to my question...

Is this 2-3 month increase in 2nd phase processing actually just the 2-3 month 1st phase delay we have just passed and is only now showing in the phase 2 statistics? Phase 1 went from 1 month to almost 4 months at one point, and has now returned to about 1 month. So is this increase a REAL increase in processing times in the VOs due to restructuring in all the VO's, or is it just a statistical anomaly due to the restructuring in the local processing centers?

If it is the first one, then we are all in for a long wait. If it is the latter, then we don't need to worry.

Any ideas?

Hey,

Without knowing definitively 1 way or the other way, all I can use for my specific VO, is use former data and spreadsheets. People who applied in January and very early February this year had pretty quick processing times but once these bar code forms were issued it caused chaos. I believe Ottawa had to help Miss and spread the load of 1st stage approvals. So what happened was February, March, April, May and early June applicants were all approved close together. Now obviously that created heavy traffic in to all Visa offices and for my specific VO (not sure about others) and they are still dealing with April and May applicants (and not close to finishing them).

So in summary those times posted are very real and look very indicative what stage 2 has in store until the VO's manage to clear the backlog that was created in the early months of the bar code system. I believe it will get better but very slowly.

Good luck to you and hope it does speed it up.

 

[scos]

Thanks for the spreadsheet Luckyman. I have to admit I was worried when I first saw it. But you are right, once you set the filters to just those that apply to us the times look pretty good. I think maybe the evidence is more towards this being a statistical anomaly.

I don't agree R151NG5UN. If you look at the summer what we really see from the numbers is CIC playing a little statistical game to try to make their numbers look better because their backlog was getting pretty bad. There was an article in the paper recently which said that CIC had actually been pulling people from Family Class to work on the HUGE backlog in the Skilled Worker class (their final solution being to simply drop all skilled worker cases older than a year, how's that for "service"?).

So in my case, they processed most people from my month and in September in 30-40 days while mine took almost 80, and many in July even longer. But while our spreadsheets look messy, their "Processing Times" page looks very tidy with numbers dropping and looking like they are working hard.

So yeah, I am tending towards thinking that the stage 2 time increase is a statistical anomaly caused the stage 1 shenanigans and that we shouldn't freak out too much.

 

[R151NG5UN]

Well people who are deep in to stage 2 (Those who applied in March, April and May) we can see that the 2nd stage process has increased significantly with an average on our spreadsheet of 102 days for stage 2 completion, now that sounds very optimistic and encouraging until you see that there are 18 applicants from 62 applicants who are well over 115 days and still waiting and some of those are well in excess of 140 days and even a few who are approaching 160 days. So given I am looking only at 2nd stage approvals I can see that if you are super lucky you might get processed in 100 days but it could be 160 days. Note: This number has been increasing week on week. 3 or 4 weeks ago are averages were nearer 95 days but until all those who are caught waiting get processed the spreadsheet is skewed in CIC's favour.

 

[scos]

True, but I am still looking at the 80% processed in 8 months statistic. 8 months is about 240 days. So the times you are talking about are not unreasonable. The new numbers are showing 11 months or about 330 days which was what had me worried. But I think the number is skewed due to the stage 1 processing done over the summer and that we will not really see waits this long, or so I hope.

 

[R151NG5UN]

Scos, yes I never meant they will take the full stated time on the CIC website. It will still be about 50% are processed in 1/2 the stated time and 50% will be processed between 1/2 and full stated times. Nobody knows for sure how CIC works but London (not sure if other spreadsheets do this) have previous years. Here are the stats from the spreadsheets on this website only (I know this site is merely an indication).

London VO

2010- Average sponsor approval time- 31.30 days
Average 2nd stage processing- 91.35 days
Total averages combined- 121.98 days

2011- Average sponsor approval time- 53.76 days
Average 2nd stage processing- 95.16 days
Total averages combined- 144.20 days

2012 (so far and very skewed at the minute)
Average sponsor approval- 81 days
Average 2nd stage processing- 102 days
Total averages combined- 191 days

As we can see this year has been pretty horrific and until this year is complete we wont see how bad because given the state of our spreadsheet the 2nd stage processing will certainly increase to above 115 days although stage 1 approval should reduce given current times are 35 days.