Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[Immime2017]

@Immime2017, do you have any predictions for cutoffs if they draw tomorrow?

Since I predicted three out of the last three rounds, I want to keep a clean record, so I won't do any predictions this round since there are too many factors up in the air. I will do a prediction for the next round though.

However, I can do an educated guess, and my guess would be 432+

 

[ivancabrer]

Since I predicted three out of the last three rounds, I want to keep a clean record, so I won't do any predictions this round since there are too many factors up in the air. I will do a prediction for the next round though.

However, I can do an educated guess, and my guess would be 432+

You always have very good and responsible answers.
As for me, because 4 weeks have passed since the last draw, my guess (taking into account only the variables we have available) is a little higher than yours , so I'm being very silent in the forums these days, so as to not take away the hope from others in this round.
The following draw, then I really hope we could continue to see the trend you predicted.
All goes comes up, must eventually come down.

 

[javier.abraham]

Draw is out! Congratulations to those of you who will be receiving ITAs. For the rest of us, let's keep the faith alive, good thing is that now they have resumed draws, it's only a matter of time.

Ministerial Instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system – June 28, 2017

Number of invitations issued CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited
3,409 Invitations - 449 points

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 22, 2017

CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 355
451-600 2,216
401-450 9,463
441-450 809
431-440 1,082
421-430 1,172
411-420 1,968
401-410 4,432
351-400 22,868
391-400 3,886
381-390 4,671
371-380 4,697
361-370 4,852
351-360 4,762
301-350 15,062
0-300 2,510
Total 52,474

 

[Immime2017]

There is bad news in there. The average number of candidates 401+ added per day over the past 4 weeks = 316 candidate.

If this trend continues, we will not see the score go to 400, given that they do only one ~3500 round every two weeks.
If it's just a temporary spike of candidates who just added their french/sibling points, in addition to graduating university/masters students, then we should expect the # of Candidates/day added to decrease in the next two rounds. I would watch the next two rounds very closely to determine what's going to happen moving forward.

 

[ivancabrer]

Hello everyone, I've been very busy today.
Unfortunately my personal calculations were very close to the last draw, so now you can understand why I was so quiet. I wanted to be wrong so bad.
I thought it would be about 445 with 3800 ITAs, but because they only sent 3400 ITAs, the the number was higher (449), which is a very sour taste.

This time around I'll try to give back real hope, not just an optimistic calculation.
So, I'll assume the IRCC will continue sending 3400 ITAs, but because of this huge GAP I'll take a couple scenarios for next two draws.

Ok, without further ado, here's what I think next time around will be like:

Most pessimistic.
Asuming normal draw dates:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 26th (Draw 68th): 423

Most optimistic.
Assuming 2 consecutive draws (back to back):
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 12th (Draw 68th): 415

Asuming 1 consecutive draw and 1 normal drawdates:
Scenario 1:
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418
Scenario 2:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418


Anyways, I'm trying to be realistic, but with an optimistic point of view, if there's even such a thing.
The bottom line is that the downward trend should continue after these two draws.

As a side note:
I'm just taking into account the variations in each segment, and there's no way that I can know which of these variations are due to the recent changes, so maybe in next draws the variations in some segments could be less, and that could make the CRS fall a little faster than what I think.
Maybe in August it could go below 410, or at least return to where it was before the changes.
Also, if they send again 3800+ ITAs, the trend could be accelerated.

This was a very weird draw, so let's not get sad about this outcome.

Let's cheer up guys, a little bump on the road is nothing. We shall continue hoping for the best!

 

[Immime2017]

Sorry everyone, due to some family change of plans, I am going to quit checking back here. I have decided to stay put for a while. I might pursue Canadian immigration again in a year or so. Best of luck to everyone!

 

[Nartus]

Sorry everyone, due to some family change of plans, I am going to quit checking back here. I have decided to stay put for a while. I might pursue Canadian immigration again in a year or so. Best of luck to everyone!

Nooo, don't do that to us!!

 

[genzo]

Sorry everyone, due to some family change of plans, I am going to quit checking back here. I have decided to stay put for a while. I might pursue Canadian immigration again in a year or so. Best of luck to everyone!

Noooooooo plz tell me the chance for me to get ita with a 426CRS... Or should I go for oinp?

 

[ivancabrer]

Sorry everyone, due to some family change of plans, I am going to quit checking back here. I have decided to stay put for a while. I might pursue Canadian immigration again in a year or so. Best of luck to everyone!

Oh, that's too bad. You'll surely be missed here.
I wish you the best!

 

[Lyssiej]

Noooooooo plz tell me the chance for me to get ita with a 426CRS... Or should I go for oinp?

I'm not him, but I would suggest waiting at least one more draw (maybe 2) to get a better look at the pattern. I hope this helps!

 

[ajithj]

People with 420+ score will get ITA in the coming months (in the next 3-4 draws).

People with 410+ will get ITA only if CIC decides to increase the number of candidates invited or if there is back to back draws.

People with less than 410. Your chance will come if CIC increases the number of invites to 4000+

 

[genzo]

I'm not him, but I would suggest waiting at least one more draw (maybe 2) to get a better look at the pattern. I hope this helps!

Thanks a lot! And do you know when will I get 600+CRS after I received the nomination of OINP?

 

[Lyssiej]

Thanks a lot! And do you know when will I get 600+CRS after I received the nomination of OINP?

That I don't know, but I think there's a thread for that.

 

[raj2017]

People with 420+ score will get ITA in the coming months (in the next 3-4 draws).

People with 410+ will get ITA only if CIC decides to increase the number of candidates invited or if there is back to back draws.

People with less than 410. Your chance will come if CIC increases the number of invites to 4000+

what is your calculation or logic behind this ?

 

[TanakaM]

Sorry everyone, due to some family change of plans, I am going to quit checking back here. I have decided to stay put for a while. I might pursue Canadian immigration again in a year or so. Best of luck to everyone!

Too bad, we enjoyed your predictions and contributions on this forum.

Wish you all the best. I'm sure you will be a millionaire soon with your predictions.