For Further Consideration II; tipping points:
This is a lengthy, too convoluted (sorry, best I can do) example for illustration, focusing on the size of the breach factor in RO enforcement. It will seem picky, but it is to illustrate how one factor can have a variable impact on how things go.
We well know, even if we cannot quantify its effect on the odds, that a big factor, usually the biggest factor, in how things go if and when a PR is in breach of the RO, is how much in breach of the RO the PR is. The bigger the breach, the bigger the risk of strict scrutiny, and the bigger the risk of a negative outcome (being "Reported," possibly losing PR status).
I do not mean to dive too deeply into the subject of
tipping points and risk assessment, here, which is complicated with lots of tangents, and it risks getting bogged down in
game-theory, which is above the pay grade of many university level mathematics professors, let alone those of us wrangling with the Canadian immigration system. Which again is why the consensus here generally sticks to what is simple, like when in breach of the RO do not leave Canada and do not apply for a PR card.
But recognizing tipping points, and related pitfalls, can be important for a PR is seriously considering options that involve additional risk.
Foremost a
reminder (apologies for harping on this), and this very much goes to the OP's further queries, most veteran participants here rightly emphasize
(1) AVOIDING RISKS if possible (such as: if in breach of the RO, do not leave Canada and do not apply for a PR card), or
(2) at the least choosing the LOWEST RISK option (such as: if abroad and in RO breach, return to Canada sooner rather than later). But real life has wrinkles,
stuff happens, real people have competing priorities and variable needs. And after all, to live is to take risks.
For purposes of assessing risks there is a tendency to ask what are the odds it will be OK versus NOT OK. Like, if I am in breach of the RO by a little, but now well settled in Canada, still have a valid PR card, and need to take a short trip abroad, will I be OK when I return or Reported? But real life risk assessment is a lot more complicated than that, which again risks getting into
game-theory, and no, no, no, we do not want to go there (piercing headache just thinking about it).
But
tipping points also loom large in how things can go and can be a key factor when considering taking options involving risks, in particular for a PR in breach considering taking the risk of relying on H&C relief, whether to apply for a new PR card early, or traveling abroad while in RO breach. As mentioned, repeatedly, we cannot quantify the probabilities any more precisely than ballpark generalities. The bigger the breach, the bigger the risk of a negative outcome, is about the best we can do.
However, the overall risk can be misleading. Which makes it all the more difficult to grasp any quantifiable sense of the probabilities. Barely skimming the surface of this, one example: as outlined above, the OP's spouse had overall very good odds there would be no RO problem when she arrived here last September, DESPITE being in breach at the time. And a big positive factor was the size of the breach; just 31 days.
Leading to one example of a major
tipping point: the difference between a casual waive through at the PoE versus a decision to prepare a 44(1) inadmissibility Report. That is the difference between:
-- casual questions, perhaps including some in regards to the RO, perhaps including an informal recognition of H&C factors, resulting in a decision to allow the PR to proceed without further examination as to RO compliance, VERSUS
-- more thorough RO compliance related questions resulting in a decision to prepare a 44(1) inadmissibility Report
The first is a pass. No further risk. Once the PR is in Canada IRCC will not go looking for them despite their breach of the RO. This is true whether the PR has been abroad 1126 days since landing or 1426 days. There was a higher risk the latter would not get this casual waive through, but once they did, once PoE officials gave them the pass, the risk then is the same for both:
NO risk of being Reported unless they initiate some other status-dependent transaction with IRCC or CBSA (apply for a PR card, or arrive at a PoE again after a trip abroad).
HOWEVER, the calculus changes if there is a closer examination resulting in a 44(1) Report. That initiates the formal, official adjudication of status. A second officer (this usually takes place while the PR is still in the PoE) reviews the Report, determines if it is
valid in law, and if it is valid in law then considers H&C factors and whether the PR should be allowed to keep PR status despite the RO breach.
The
tipping point here is oriented to the decision about whether the Report is valid in law. Close does not count. 729 days credit toward RO compliance does not make it. If in breach, the report is valid in law. How it goes from here depends on whether the H&C case tips in favour of allowing the PR to keep status. (Note, focus on this factor is for illustration; there are many other factors that will influence how things go in the particular case.)
In contrast, 730 days RO credit does cut it. That meets the RO. No breach. Should not have been a Report. If there was, it is not valid in law and will be set aside.
So both the first and second officers (the second technically acting as the Minister's Delegate) calculate RO credit. For the PR still within five years of landing, days left on the calendar to the fifth year anniversary count. A practical approach is to simply subtract the number of days outside Canada, since landing, from 1825. If that sum is 729 or less, there is a RO breach. If that sum is 730 or more, no breach. (That is, if absent for less than 1096 days, no breach; if more than that, in breach).
Bringing this around to considering
the size of the breach. And back to the observation that the overall odds can be misleading. And to the
tipping point. But not overlooking that the decision made by the first officer (and similarly the PIL officer before that), about whether to even ask detailed questions about RO compliance, likely were at least partially influenced by the number of days short, generally (while probably also influenced by some consideration for H&C factors, like covid, that being the obvious one these days).
Finally getting to the point: once the 44(1) Report is prepared, and how it goes depends on weighing H&C factors, suddenly the "
size of the breach" can be, seems it usually is, subject to a very different calculation.
Using the wife's example, arriving last September: At that time, for purposes of calculating RO compliance, she had 699 days RO credit (and still that today). And a rough estimate of that could easily have been (probably was) a positive factor in the PIL officer's decision to waive her into Canada without further RO-related questioning. Or, even if she was questioned some in Secondary, still a significant factor in waiving her through without a more strict assessment, without preparing a 44(1) Report. Which, as noted, is consistent with lots of recent anecdotal reporting. Fairly easy to forecast good odds in that scenario.
BUT . . . at that time, in September 2021, she had been IN Canada just 136 days . . . way, way short of 730 days. That is not just 31 days short. That is nearly 600 days short. Big breach. Negative H&C factor.
A few years ago, when I first saw an IAD panel denying an appeal in significant part based on a "big breach" of the RO, and not giving the PR any credit for days left until the PR's fifth year anniversary, I thought that was wrong. I thought the PR should have been given that credit in the H&C assessment. Illustrating I am no expert and I get some of this stuff wrong (but always working on getting it right). After seeing this show up in other cases I understood the calculus better. There is the technical side of it, of course, that once a 44(1) Report is prepared, days in Canada after that do not count. So, yeah, technically in the calculation of RO compliance, before a 44(1) Report is prepared the PR gets credit for days left on the calendar to the fifth year anniversary, but once the Report is prepared those days do not count (unless the Report is set aside) even if the PR actually is in Canada those days, let alone could be. But just within orbit of why the size of the breach matters, it is not just about how far off compliance the PR is, but about looking at the nature and extent to which the PR is tied to and vested in a life in Canada. There is a clear difference, in this connection, between the PR who has spent 136 days in Canada and the PR who has actually spent 699 days in Canada, even though for purposes of whether or not there was a breach of the RO, they both got 699 days credit.
Which leads back to the biggest tipping point: 730 days credit. And why veteran participants are so focused on meeting that threshold. Skip the convoluted pitfall-ridden nuances.
Ignore my lengthy analysis. Avoid the risk. Stay on the compliance side of the equation. Otherwise, even if the odds of things going OK are good, the chances otherwise are many, and what could tip things that way too often less than obvious.