Has anybody tried to generate processing times histogram?

[bas12]

I was thinking it would be nice to have a graph where you can see how many people had their application finalized in a given # of months.
It should be doable with our spreadsheet trackers. Has anybody done it already?

My application is in processing for almost 23 months, and no updates in over a year. From what I am reading on the forum, it seems that if they don't finish it in 12-13 months, it might not see any movement until after 36 months. But it would be nice to confirm it with data
Also, if anybody contacts the press and/or MPs, it would be even better with pictures!

I wonder if waiting a couple more months in hopes they take pity on me is useful, and if it is not better to withdraw and reapply, or try going to press or filing mandamus, so that things start moving before 3 years pass. It seems that recent applicants are seeing much faster processing times, a lot of them have oaths in about 6 months.

 

[bas12]

Bumping up for visibility.
I think figures would be good for any kind of a public discussion or activism.

 

[inkomati]

Are you just talking about "App sent" to "Oath ceremony"? I could take a look. Should be easy enough

 

[bas12]

Yeah, I think that would be interesting.
From what I am seeing on this forum, we should see a sharp drop after 12 months, and then an increase after 36.

The spreadsheets should be fairly representative of the general applicants pool.
I was thinking about requesting data from IRCC through ATIP, but I will need to look into how that is done, and I am sure this will take many months.

 

[inkomati]

This is just an example for 2021, by quarter (Jan - Apr, etc.) for when the application was sent in. Note that this information is present for only 41% of the applicants. (In a previous version, I forgot to exclude empty rows when calculating this)

 

[bas12]

Thanks!
x-axis is days?
Doesn't seem like there is anything incriminating there, but 3 years hasn't passed since 2021 yet.
Are there fewer applications in Q4, or are they all not finished yet?

Here is a relevant thread
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/citizenship-backlog-statistics-analysis.783382/

I think splitting by paper and online could be interesting too.

 

[bas12]

though there does seem to be a peak close to one year. But they could explain it by complexity, I think.

 

[inkomati]

Looking at it year by year paints a better picture. Better labeling this time, and the density plot looks prettier! (Again, this obviously excludes outstanding applications)

 

[bas12]

I am not sure if I should be reassured by the little blip for 2021 after 2 years.
But things are bad for 2020 applicants.
Maybe I should have applied in 2022 or 2023. Maybe it is not too late..

 

[bas12]

I think it would be good to incorporate finished vs total somehow, since 2022 is much closer to today than 2021 or 2020. Maybe there will be a long tail in a couple of years, maybe not.

 

[bas12]

I will email IRCC.CDOStatistics-StatistiquesDPD.IRCC@cic.gc.ca instead of ATIP
edit: Done. Not sure if ATIP would be more effective, but they always send these stupid PDF files you can't even copy anything from.

 

[bas12]

There is an open dataset for new citizens per country of birth
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/9b34e712-513f-44e9-babf-9df4f7256550/resource/0c8bfc6c-9787-41c6-825c-46b9ddf1f4ad
but I could not find anything with processing times.

Here is the portal https://search.open.canada.ca/opendata/?_organization_limit=0&organization=cic&owner_org=cic&page=1&sort=metadata_modified+desc

 

[mimi2303]

I was thinking it would be nice to have a graph where you can see how many people had their application finalized in a given # of months.
It should be doable with our spreadsheet trackers. Has anybody done it already?

My application is in processing for almost 23 months, and no updates in over a year. From what I am reading on the forum, it seems that if they don't finish it in 12-13 months, it might not see any movement until after 36 months. But it would be nice to confirm it with data
Also, if anybody contacts the press and/or MPs, it would be even better with pictures!

I wonder if waiting a couple more months in hopes they take pity on me is useful, and if it is not better to withdraw and reapply, or try going to press or filing mandamus, so that things start moving before 3 years pass. It seems that recent applicants are seeing much faster processing times, a lot of them have oaths in about 6 months.

Yes, most of recent applicants getting it within 6-8months! I suspect it's going to be min 36 months in my case..as now 29 months passed since I sent my application, but I got AOR only in Feb 2021..so, will it be calculated starting from AOR date or..those 36 months..unbelievable

 

[bas12]

Yes, most of recent applicants getting it within 6-8months! I suspect it's going to be min 36 months in my case..as now 29 months passed since I sent my application, but I got AOR only in Feb 2021..so, will it be calculated starting from AOR date or..those 36 months..unbelievable

See this page
https://ircc.canada.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=1474&top=3

I also emailed this link to Montreal office and sent it by a webform, together with the page stating processing times. It seems that some folks in Montreal office as well as on IRCC phone line are also unaware of these facts.

 

[bas12]

Yes, most of recent applicants getting it within 6-8months! I suspect it's going to be min 36 months in my case..as now 29 months passed since I sent my application, but I got AOR only in Feb 2021..so, will it be calculated starting from AOR date or..those 36 months..unbelievable

We would need to look at completed vs total to claim that most 2022 applicants are finishing in 8 months, since we don't show how many are still in progress, could be a majority. Though there is probably an easy fix.