I conceive, there are somewhat inaccuracies might take place: the data that is being displayed in our profiles might lag. So there is only one way to make the best guess on what stage we are - is to infer it statistically, using
imm. tracker;
So, what we can see is that the mean from AOR till PPR is somewhat around 105 days.
Most dangerous period (when you might be rejected) is first 59 days (probably while in CIO). Among reasons: police certificates (Not translated, failed to get etc.)
In LVO - it might be only your NOC that they would look really at (that is, your reference letters); this is probably the only thing to judge and what they would look precisely at as everything else must be checked in CIO and there is nothing much to check - your education, IELTS, age, marital status - all of this is quite straightforward - this data is factual and confirmed by papers (British council for IELTS, WES for diploma etc).
But if NOC is checked in CIO (which i doubt) - then there is even slimmer chance to be rejected after your case in transferred from CIO to LVO since there is nothing left to check.
Do not worry people, we are still within reference time frame, which is Jan 6, 2018 in my case (AOR - 6 July, '17).
But.... it is always good to have as accurate forecast as possible, right?