FSW, CEC, PNP Analysis (2018 - Mar 2021)

[ab995]

Hello Everyone,

Just like most members on this forum, I am also waiting for my PR (FSW - Inland) as well. Since IRCC is not able to provide accurate processing timelines, I have tried to analyze the official monthly data published on the open data forum. Here are the results

FSW, CEC, PNP Application Analysis (2018 - Mar 2021):

	Total number of invitations (CEC)	Total number of PR Applications approved (CEC)	Total number of invitations (FSW)	Total number of PR Applications approved (FSW)	Total number of invitations (PNP)	Total number of PR Applications approved (PNP)
2018​	25075​	27565​	36225​	71210​	10130​	62405​
2019​	25630​	30235​	32650​	77815​	13220​	68630​
2020​	44655​	24950​	22160​	35750​	14125​	38710​
Q1 - 2021​	4975​	18455​	5660​	8610​	1130​	13620​

So as you can tell, till 2020 CEC applications have been consistently processed/ approved at the same rate. But in the last quarter (Q1), they amped up application processing and approved over 18455 in just 4 months (i.e like almost 73% approved applications for the whole 2020 year). This can be attributed to the high intake of CEC applicants in 2020 and change in policy (i.e to focus on applicants inland)

Now for FSW, the number of applications being processed/ approved is almost cut in half in 2020. Also based on the numbers in the last quarter of 2021, I don't think it's going to increase anytime soon (especially with the tr-pr pathway). Just a note, the number of FSW applicants invited has also decreased a little. The same pattern can be seen for PNP applications too.

So to summarize, CEC applicants can expect to get their applications processed faster this year in comparison to last year. On the other hand, FSW/ PNP applicants need to be prepared for longer processing times as they are approving applications at a lower rate. (On the hind site, at least they are processing them than completely halting)

Hope that helps.

References:
Number of PR Applications approved: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda
Number of invitations data: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

(P.S: I'll try to update this when the next month (April) data is available )

 

[apollonoob]

i don't understand why the “approved” number for FSW is almost doubled the number of invitations

 

[Omogelasgidi]

I

i don't understand why the “approved” number for FSW is almost doubled the number of invitations

I noticed that too for all the parameters. There is an error somewhere because total Invitations cannot exceed approval.

 

[upon]

Hello Everyone,

Just like most members on this forum, I am also waiting for my PR (FSW - Inland) as well. Since IRCC is not able to provide accurate processing timelines, I have tried to analyze the official monthly data published on the open data forum. Here are the results

FSW, CEC, PNP Application Analysis (2018 - Mar 2021):

	Total number of invitations (CEC)	Total number of PR Applications approved (CEC)	Total number of invitations (FSW)	Total number of PR Applications approved (FSW)	Total number of invitations (PNP)	Total number of PR Applications approved (PNP)
2018​	25075​	27565​	36225​	71210​	10130​	62405​
2019​	25630​	30235​	32650​	77815​	13220​	68630​
2020​	44655​	24950​	22160​	35750​	14125​	38710​
Q1 - 2021​	4975​	18455​	5660​	8610​	1130​	13620​

So as you can tell, till 2020 CEC applications have been consistently processed/ approved at the same rate. But in the last quarter (Q1), they amped up application processing and approved over 18455 in just 4 months (i.e like almost 73% approved applications for the whole 2020 year). This can be attributed to the high intake of CEC applicants in 2020 and change in policy (i.e to focus on applicants inland)

Now for FSW, the number of applications being processed/ approved is almost cut in half in 2020. Also based on the numbers in the last quarter of 2021, I don't think it's going to increase anytime soon (especially with the tr-pr pathway). Just a note, the number of FSW applicants invited has also decreased a little. The same pattern can be seen for PNP applications too.

So to summarize, CEC applicants can expect to get their applications processed faster this year in comparison to last year. On the other hand, FSW/ PNP applicants need to be prepared for longer processing times as they are approving applications at a lower rate. (On the hind site, at least they are processing them than completely halting)

Hope that helps.

References:
Number of PR Applications approved: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda
Number of invitations data: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

(P.S: I'll try to update this when the next month (April) data is available )

Sorry man bu numbers are not true.
There is more than 40 000 invitations already was in Q1 this year for CEC-not 4900 as you mentioned.

 

[scylla]

Hello Everyone,

Just like most members on this forum, I am also waiting for my PR (FSW - Inland) as well. Since IRCC is not able to provide accurate processing timelines, I have tried to analyze the official monthly data published on the open data forum. Here are the results

FSW, CEC, PNP Application Analysis (2018 - Mar 2021):

	Total number of invitations (CEC)	Total number of PR Applications approved (CEC)	Total number of invitations (FSW)	Total number of PR Applications approved (FSW)	Total number of invitations (PNP)	Total number of PR Applications approved (PNP)
2018​	25075​	27565​	36225​	71210​	10130​	62405​
2019​	25630​	30235​	32650​	77815​	13220​	68630​
2020​	44655​	24950​	22160​	35750​	14125​	38710​
Q1 - 2021​	4975​	18455​	5660​	8610​	1130​	13620​

So as you can tell, till 2020 CEC applications have been consistently processed/ approved at the same rate. But in the last quarter (Q1), they amped up application processing and approved over 18455 in just 4 months (i.e like almost 73% approved applications for the whole 2020 year). This can be attributed to the high intake of CEC applicants in 2020 and change in policy (i.e to focus on applicants inland)

Now for FSW, the number of applications being processed/ approved is almost cut in half in 2020. Also based on the numbers in the last quarter of 2021, I don't think it's going to increase anytime soon (especially with the tr-pr pathway). Just a note, the number of FSW applicants invited has also decreased a little. The same pattern can be seen for PNP applications too.

So to summarize, CEC applicants can expect to get their applications processed faster this year in comparison to last year. On the other hand, FSW/ PNP applicants need to be prepared for longer processing times as they are approving applications at a lower rate. (On the hind site, at least they are processing them than completely halting)

Hope that helps.

References:
Number of PR Applications approved: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda
Number of invitations data: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

(P.S: I'll try to update this when the next month (April) data is available )

As others have said, the numbers are wrong. CEC invites for Q1 was over 40K.

 

[ab995]

Those are the numbers CIC published on the open data forum ( http://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEcandidate_0001_E.xls ). As you can see in the totals section (line 67), it mentions 4975 for Q1.

Also if you see the notes (line 89), it says these totals equate to: Express Entry candidates invited to apply and who subsequently applied for permanent residence. That means, out of those who have been invited, only 4975 have applied in Q1.

The other numbers can be verified using the links I have provided. Hope this helps.

 

[scylla]

Those are the numbers CIC published on the open data forum ( http://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEcandidate_0001_E.xls ). As you can see in the totals section (line 67), it mentions 4975 for Q1.

Also if you see the notes (line 89), it says these totals equate to: Express Entry candidates invited to apply and who subsequently applied for permanent residence. That means, out of those who have been invited, only 4975 have applied in Q1.

The other numbers can be verified using the links I have provided. Hope this helps.

You should update your headers to reflect that.

The first column is not "Total number of invitations (CEC)". It's "Total number of applications received (CEC)".

Right now your headers don't match the data.

 

[apollonoob]

Those are the numbers CIC published on the open data forum ( http://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEcandidate_0001_E.xls ). As you can see in the totals section (line 67), it mentions 4975 for Q1.

Also if you see the notes (line 89), it says these totals equate to: Express Entry candidates invited to apply and who subsequently applied for permanent residence. That means, out of those who have been invited, only 4975 have applied in Q1.

The other numbers can be verified using the links I have provided. Hope this helps.

actually i have been tracing these data recently too, but some figures are indeed confusing. For FSW and PNP, all the approved number are much larger than invited number. I don’t understand

 

[scylla]

actually i have been tracing these data recently too, but some figures are indeed confusing. For FSW and PNP, all the approved number are much larger than invited number. I don’t understand

It's because this is the count of applications approved based on the year the application was approved (not based on the year of ITA). It would include applications that received ITA and were submitted from previous years (not just from that year).

 

[ab995]

Hello Everyone,

These are the Apr 2021 numbers.

FSW, CEC, PNP Application Analysis (2018 - Apr 2021):

	Total number of applications received by IRCC (CEC)	Total number of PR Applications approved (CEC)	Total number of applications received by IRCC (FSW)	Total number of PR Applications approved (FSW)	Total number of applications received by IRCC (PNP)	Total number of PR Applications approved (PNP)
2018	25075	27565	36225	71210	10130	62405
2019	25630	30235	32650	77815	13220	68630
2020	44655	24950	22160	35750	14125	38710
Q1 - 2021	4975	18455	5660	8610	1130	13620
Apr - 2021	23385	6815	2870	400	1595	705

So as you can tell, they amped up CEC processing in April. Also, there is a huge increase in the number of people that have submitted their CEC applications in April.

Now for FSW, the number of applications being processed/ approved has drastically gone down from previous months. Only 400 applications got approved . I believe we will continue seeing a decrease in processing rate with all the new CEC and TR to PR applications being filed. The same pattern can be seen for PNP applications too.

Hope that helps.

References:
Number of PR Applications approved: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/52e4b14b-597a-4ecf-a184-23a6e69b0d57
Number of Applications received data: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

(P.S: I'll try to update this when the next month (May) data is available )

 

[upon]

Why do they invite PNP every two weeks non stop along with CEC since March 2020 if they don’t process it? It doesn’t make any sense at all.

 

[upon]

Hello Everyone,

These are the Apr 2021 numbers.

FSW, CEC, PNP Application Analysis (2018 - Apr 2021):

	Total number of applications received by IRCC (CEC)	Total number of PR Applications approved (CEC)	Total number of applications received by IRCC (FSW)	Total number of PR Applications approved (FSW)	Total number of applications received by IRCC (PNP)	Total number of PR Applications approved (PNP)
2018	25075	27565	36225	71210	10130	62405
2019	25630	30235	32650	77815	13220	68630
2020	44655	24950	22160	35750	14125	38710
Q1 - 2021	4975	18455	5660	8610	1130	13620
Apr - 2021	23385	6815	2870	400	1595	705

So as you can tell, they amped up CEC processing in April. Also, there is a huge increase in the number of people that have submitted their CEC applications in April.

Now for FSW, the number of applications being processed/ approved has drastically gone down from previous months. Only 400 applications got approved . I believe we will continue seeing a decrease in processing rate with all the new CEC and TR to PR applications being filed. The same pattern can be seen for PNP applications too.

Hope that helps.

References:
Number of PR Applications approved: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/52e4b14b-597a-4ecf-a184-23a6e69b0d57
Number of Applications received data: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/593e9165-c6ce-4f9b-b519-03d315f92cd4

(P.S: I'll try to update this when the next month (May) data is available )

Wrong info for April invited under CEC. They invited 17 000 under CEC in April.

 

[upon]

Also, they received ZERO FSW applicants in April. No draws for FSW remember?

 

[ab995]

Also, they received ZERO FSW applicants in April. No draws for FSW remember?

You gotta read the whole thread before coming up with this conclusion. These are the total number of applications received by IRCC and not the total number of ITA's sent for that particular month. An application in this context means - People who have received ITA and have submitted all the necessary documents (i.e AoR's issued).

I have also attached the official IRCC links for these numbers -_-

 

[upon]

You gotta read the whole thread before coming up with this conclusion. These are the total number of applications received by IRCC and not the total number of ITA's sent for that particular month. An application in this context means - People who have received ITA and have submitted all the necessary documents (i.e AoR's issued).

I have also attached the official IRCC links for these numbers -_-

It says total number of CEC applications on your chart.