FSW 2014 Applicants Timeline- Lets Network Here.

[grooby]

Well, the estimates actually have predicted it quite well, +-1 day. No need to change them, everything is as expected.

Like I had mentioned earlier, SS estimate for my application date(18Jul14) for CC charge when i joined this forum was 15th Jan, then it was 18th Dec and now it is mid-Nov ..... I think that because you can see the number of entries decreasing/day in the forum, You gotta acccount for that at constant CIC speed as well....

CHarge date estimates are good for people as and when their turn is about to come .. maybe 2-3 weeks applicants... but for people far off on the curve, you need to account for change in CIC charging speed as a function of applications/day(which will keep on changing as more entries come into the system.....

Well, If your Charge date estimate is working well, then it should be able to predict Charge dates(with deviation of about a week on each side) for applicants 2 months away from the current processing date.... so your charge date estimate should currently predict a pretty exact number for people who file end of july....

I agree as their turn comes closer, the SS will predict better .... but I hope you're getting what I'm trying to say ... [/b][/color]

 

[grooby]

Chale the mujhe gyaan dene ..... boneless chilli chicken khilaa diys chilli panner bol kar ;D ;D

Haa nee to .......... ab sb thooste hein :-*

lol!!!

 

[akashsar]

Hey Guys,

Can anyone tell me under what account is the credit card charged?? For example Citizen and Immigration Canada or CIC or something else.

I want to inform my CC company regarding the international transaction before hand. Don`t want it to be rejected.

Thanks for your help!

Hi Bluzone,
The transaction will be of the name CITIZENSHIP & IMM FSW SYNEY

 

[dmitrych]

I can actually explain this in details.

Like I had mentioned earlier, SS estimate for my application date(18Jul14) for CC charge when i joined this forum was 15th Jan, then it was 18th Dec [/b][/color]

It's because end of December - beginning of January have a lot of holidays and a slight change in the input results in a seemingly large difference in the output.

and now it is mid-Nov .....

It's because CIC processing speed has finally increased.

I think that because you can see the number of entries decreasing/day in the forum, You gotta acccount for that at constant CIC speed as well....

The exact number of applications sent on each particular day is used for the estimates - it's accounted for.

CHarge date estimates are good for people as and when their turn is about to come .. maybe 2-3 weeks applicants... but for people far off on the curve, you need to account for change in CIC charging speed as a function of applications/day(which will keep on changing as more entries come into the system.....

CIC charging speed (number of applications charged per work day) is usually constant on average - it can be seen from FSW 2013 and FSW 2014 data. Everything you said here is accounted for as precisely as possible - and you can check it by yourself in the formula spreadsheet.

I hope this reduces your doubts.

 

[trk1]

Well, the estimates actually have predicted it quite well, +-1 day. No need to change them, everything is as expected.

The estimates are pretty consistent overall.
There are two factors that I see maybe we should keep a close watch on, to correct our formula if needed.

1. Speed of processing by CIC. I see that changing, particularly after the initial couple of weeks.
2. Rate of applications coming into the SS. But this one is dependable only for those NOC categories where there is "active on the internet" population as applicants.

thanks and regards. Keep up the good analytics!

 

[click.trick]

Yo ClickTrick ..... Happy for your man .... COngrats .... !!!!!

Dimtrych if you're watching this, we have gone past 3 CC Charging dates in the past 3 working days .... So maybe by the last week of september you will have to revise your CC charge date estimates ..... like I had said earlier .....

Thanks Grooby ..... it was late night 1am .... but i could not sleep because of the happiness

 

[JeetVISA]

Now NDVO is stepping up for may 8 MR,
Desperately waiting for May 9th....

cheers

Yes desperately waiting for MR!! 8) 8)

 

[click.trick]

Congratulations Click.trick

Thanks Vijay

 

[friendali]

Hi all , i want to share my own exp ,as many out there are worried about their applications and its our duty to share any useful information may help others,

Its my 3rd time to apply for Canada and sure its very hard to find here on our forum who is trying from 6 years,first was 2008, second 2013 and here i am at my 3rd ,so the first lesson not to lose hope ,

ill mention my mistakes so many friends here are worried that they may get rejected cause of it

1-I mentioned Visa Office not existing instead of London.
2-NOC duties only matching 10% of what have been written in my work exp.
3-for some personal reasons ID numbers mentioned are not correct as per copies provided.
4-Didn't use cover letter and didn't put the Codes page on top
5-My spouse not going to join me and i mentioned the real reason for that .

and that's what i remember for now and inshallah ill keep updating it ,

for now i want to copy the email i received yesterday ,(will update ss now)

((FEDERAL SKILLED WORKER
CENTRALIZED INTAKE OFFICE
P O BOX 7500
SYDNEY NS B1P 0A9
CANADA


Application for Permanent Residence in Canada
12 September 2014
 
UCI: ********
Application: **********
This refers to your application for permanent residence in Canada in the Federal Skilled Worker class.
The Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism issued instructions which were published in the Canada Gazette on May 1, 2014. Only applicants who meet the criteria specified in these Ministerial Instructions are eligible to be processed in the Federal Skilled Worker class.
Based on a review of the information you have provided, your application has received a positive determination of eligibility to be processed on the basis of work experience in an occupation specified in the Instructions issued by the Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism and published in the Canada Gazette on May 1, 2014. However a final decision on your eligibility to be selected as a federal skilled worker will be made by a visa office.
Your application has now been placed into processing.
This correspondence also acknowledges receipt of your payment dated in the amount of Canadian dollars. Your Payment Receipt No. is . Please keep a copy of this letter for your records and quote this number on all correspondence relating to application fees or refunds.

X This correspondence also acknowledges receipt of your Fee Payment Form IMM 5620 authorizing CIC to take payment of processing fees using the credit card details provided. Please be informed that we processed a payment of $550.00 Canadian dollars on this credit card (ending in ****). Your receipt number is ********. Please keep a copy of this letter for your records and quote this number on all correspondence relating to application fees or refunds.
Please do not forward additional documents unless requested.
if additional documents are required, you will be provided an address to forward required documents. Please inform the visa office of any changes in your application (e.g. birth or adoption of a child, marriage or common-law relationship, new occupation or employer, submission of an Arranged Employment Opinion approved by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, change of address, change of e-mail address, change of immigration representative, etc). Please include a letter identifying what the changes are and any relevant supporting documents. If your documents are not in English or French, send a notarized (certified) translation with a copy of the originals.
It is important for you to learn about the steps you need to take to get your credentials and qualifications recognized in Canada. Citizenship and Immigration Canada recommends that you review the resources on the Foreign Credentials Referral Office’s website (*****a) and the Department’s website (****) for helpful information about living and finding work in Canada. If your application will be processed through China, India, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Japan or the UK, you might receive information and an invitation letter from CIC about free in-person assistance. In order to participate in this service you will require an invitation letter from the CIC mission which will be sent to you during the later stages of the immigration process if you are determined to be eligible for it. You can access information about this free in-person assistance ***** . Actual participation in this in-person service is not a guarantee nor an indicator that your immigration application will ultimately be successful or that you will receive an immigrant visa.
Thank you for your interest in Canada.
SJP
Case Processing Agent
Citizenship and Immigration
Federal Skilled Worker Centralized Intake Office
Sydney, Nova Scotia
))

but i have few questions here

1- its very clear mentioned above that its not final decision to consider my self eligible for processing .so why Many users here consider PER as its a final decision ?

2-I didn't submit any police clearance so far , and its mentioned in the email not to send any document unless its requested ,should i wait till they ask for it?

3-My visa office will be London and what i keep hearing that its the slowest VO ,how many weeks or months i have to wait to get to the next step when they will ask for police clearance and then when they will ask for the medical ?

Thank you all

 

[click.trick]

Hello Experts

Got few questions

1. when can I expect a PER ? my CC charged yesterday
2. When can I expect to hear from London Visa Office?
3. I have sent my PCC, the Certificate from saudi Arabia does not mention any validity, so by default it must be for 1 year. The Certificate I got from Pakistan mentions it is valid for three months, i dont know does this mean that it can be submitted within the three months of its issuance or do i need a new one after three months?

I will be glad to know the more about the next steps.

Regards

 

[dmitrych]

Many thanks...I tried all possible numbers, week, month end, month start, release date of cic cap..but 37 I didn't.

One suggestion, maybe we can have 3 options for this, one with last week, one with last month, and one with current 37. As you would agree, the trends are more weekly now, and by reducing noise, I guess our estimated cap date is getting influenced big time.

Keep up the outstanding work!

Thanks & Regards

I've actually built some charts from which we can see how much noise there is:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12OltoLvoAU_8vYqaXWeaQMN9OxjWO1XOox7Xx-Yn6MY/edit#gid=589279081

If we use a week, it looks like there's way too much noise, especially for colder NOCs.

I agree that we could probably add more options for estimated dates, but honestly I'd prefer to keep it simpler - a pessimistic estimate which accounts for the reasonably worst case, and a realistic estimate which accounts for the average case.

Overall, I understood your worries and I'll think what we can do to account for this in the pessimistic case (possibly, taking the max speed out of bi-weekly and monthly, or something similar to this).

There are two factors that I see maybe we should keep a close watch on, to correct our formula if needed.

1. Speed of processing by CIC. I see that changing, particularly after the initial couple of weeks.
2. Rate of applications coming into the SS. But this one is dependable only for those NOC categories where there is "active on the internet" population as applicants.

thanks and regards. Keep up the good analytics!

Regarding 1, I've actually investigated how it behaved in FSW 2013: it was constant for a few months, and then it decreased a bit, once. I think the changes in speed are most probably controlled by CIC's decisions directly and we can't really predict what CIC decides in future. So what I'm using for now is to assume the speed is constant until CIC changes it - then update the estimates with the new speed.

2. We could theoretically add a correction for those applications that were sent but will be added to the spreadsheet later and will affect the estimates, - but it requires careful investigation how many applications are actually added to the spreadsheet much later than they were sent. I'll think about it.

Thank you too for the feedback!

 

[red9999]

Ladies and gentlemen i got the most beautiful mail ever --per..thankyou Lord Krishna.. and thankyou everyone for the support.

I have updated the spreadsheet (admins plz remove the duplicate entry)

Congrats everyone who got their PER and fee charged. I wish all the best to the rest of the applicants who are waiting.



PER 8th September
CC charged 26th August
App filed 16th May

 

[spicysank]

but i have few questions here

1- its very clear mentioned above that its not final decision to consider my self eligible for processing .so why Many users here consider PER as its a final decision ?

2-I didn't submit any police clearance so far , and its mentioned in the email not to send any document unless its requested ,should i wait till they ask for it?

3-My visa office will be London and what i keep hearing that its the slowest VO ,how many weeks or months i have to wait to get to the next step when they will ask for police clearance and then when they will ask for the medical ?

Thank you all

Congrats First of all. This is the first step and of course there are a lot more stuff to undergo before you actually get the Maple Leaf stamped on your PP. At least you know you are elligible. Next your VO would do a background check. Employment verification, security check, medical check, etc for you to get the VISA.

Do not I Repeat Do Not send PCC until requested. Reason being PCC is obtained as original just as one copy, if it gets lost in transit or the VO doesn't accept it you'll have to get anothet one. Unless you can get two and sent one now and have a bckup for future.

Now i would suggest to start the PCC process reason being it is valid for a year and by the time you receive the request you would have it ready. Whatsoever if it takes a year for MR(not practical) you can get another one done.

Hope this helps.

 

[spicysank]

CONGO BRO!!!

+1 For your patience.

Ladies and gentlemen i got the most beautiful mail ever --per..thankyou Lord Krishna.. and thankyou everyone for the support.

I have updated the spreadsheet (admins plz remove the duplicate entry)

Congrats everyone who got their PER and fee charged. I wish all the best to the rest of the applicants who are waiting.



PER 8th September
CC charged 26th August
App filed 16th May

 

[grooby]

Thanks Grooby ..... it was late night 1am .... but i could not sleep because of the happiness

Congrats man ... !!! CHeers ....

you can play that song if you've heard it "party toh banti hai"