I'm awaiting MR from LVO, and have tried to predict when it will come. Perhaps a slightly academic exercise, but something to keep the mind occupied
1. Out of 713 LVO applicants in the spreadsheet, 340 have received PERs
2. Out of these 340, MRs have been reported by 96, and I
estimate a FURTHER 55 have received MRs but NOT updated the spreadsheet (these are people whose last spreadsheet was prior to 1st Oct)
3. For those who have reported MRs, the average # of days since PER date is 67 days, and the standard deviation of this is 29 days
4. Assuming this is a normal distribution,
68% of applicants should MRs within 96 days of PER (1 std dev), and 95% of applicants within 125 days (2 std devs)
Attached spreadsheet shows this data filtered for LVO applicants who have received PER, and sorted by PER date. For those MRs which I assume have been received but not updated in the spreadsheet, I have filled the MR date as "Likely received" and shaded those rows similar blue to the MR cases.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DGF2-u34r3ilp-Cvuy--pA_bsk3hiLhil0Zq4Xq9U1c/edit?usp=sharing
